Education, conflict, and resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: Report

The Sustainable Development Goals call for action in many areas relevant for girls and boys, not least quality education, but challenges in achieving progress may be aggravated by factors including poverty and armed conflict. Conflict has negative impacts on education, which can operate through a variety of supply- and demand-side channels. It can destroy infrastructure, displace students and teachers, and modify the returns to schooling, all of which can limit school enrolment (e.g. Akresh and de Walque 2008; Dabalen and Paul 2014; Serneels and Verporten 2012; Poirier 2012; Bertoni et al. 2019). Even in countries where primary school enrolment rates may be increasing, conflict can widen disparities in education access and contribute to the intergenerational transmission of poverty.

In this context, strengthening resilience capacities that can enable children living in conflict-affected areas to continue to access education is critical. USAID’s 2018 Education Policy recognizes that in order to strengthen resilience, “education in partner countries must have the capacity to embed effective approaches to improving learning and education outcomes, to innovate, and to withstand shocks and stresses” (USAID 2018, p. 17). Conflict is generally not a “shock” but more a social process, reflecting something structural and with a long time-dimension (though a single conflict event and its impact may be experienced as a shock locally). The ability to access education in contexts of protracted crises is critical.

This report examines the links between conflict, education, resilience and poverty dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa in a set of USAID Resilience Focus Countries. It relies on panel data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to investigate the relationship between conflict and education, focusing on girls and boys in households on different poverty trajectories (see Box 1). It then builds on Diwakar et al. (2021) to examine the types of resilience capacities that can promote school access for children in conflict-affected areas. In doing so, the paper attempts to contribute to the knowledge base on the pathways through which conflict affects education differently for girls and boys in households on different poverty trajectories, and how resilience capacities of households and institutions can be supported to contribute to increased enrolment in situations of conflict and violence.

Author: Vidya Diwakar

The full report can be downloaded here

The associated brief can be downloaded here

Educating poor and vulnerable children in conflict-affected areas: Policy Brief

Education is recognized to be a ‘portable asset’ (Bird et al. 2010)—one with intrinsic as well as instrumental value and with the potential to contribute to sustained escapes from poverty (Diwakar et al. 2021). However, education access might be compromised in areas affected by armed conflict due to various supply- and demand-side factors. These range from limited state budgets, destruction of infrastructure, displacement of students and teachers, constrained household expenditures, and a general context of insecurity that may limit decisions to enroll. In this way, conflict “damages education from above [through national budgets] and below [through household budgets]” (UNESCO 2011).

Accordingly, a context-specific selection of demand-supporting as well as supply-enhancing measures for promoting formal education is needed in conflict-affected areas (CAAs). Supporting demand for education is critical in CAAs, as conflict can so easily reinforce other constraints on demand. Key demand-boosting measures more generally include: early childhood care and education; school feeding; enhancing quality throughout the system (especially in the early years of primary school); special attention to ensure the continued education of girls; and support for vulnerable children in their transitions between education levels and into the labor market, self-employment or further training. Though not specific to CAAs, a focus on these measures could help ease the financial constraints of households in CAAs, so that the motivation to support children through education remains strong for parents and wider social networks.

There are also supply-side fundamentals which need to be assured in CAAs: above all, that schools need to be safe and secure. Other supply-side needs in CAAs include: improving infrastructure and resources (including teaching materials and updated curricula) to maintain education systems amid widespread insecurity and the destruction (UNESCO 2011); teacher training for work in CAAs; and addressing distributional effects stemming from factors such as restrictions in population movements or the co-option of education by conflict parties (Justino 2016). This is often a big issue in CAA where schools, especially at secondary level, can be arenas of conflict for warring parties.

This brief recommends education policy and programming priorities stemming from recent research on education, conflict, and resilience in sub-Saharan Africa (see Box 1). Based on the research findings, it draws attention to how to meet challenges related to opportunity costs (by investigating how to support poor and vulnerable children into secondary education, and how to improve quality), and how to help link education with labor markets to strengthen households’ financial resilience in CAAs.

Authors: Andrew Shepherd (ODI), Susan Nicolai (ODI), and Vidya Diwakar (ODI).

The full brief can be downloaded here

The associated report can be downloaded here

Education, resilience and sustained poverty escapes: Synthesis Report of Sub Saharan Africa

Resilience is defined as the “ability of people, households, communities, countries, and systems to mitigate, adapt to, and recover from shocks and stresses in a manner that reduces chronic vulnerability and facilitates inclusive growth” (USAID 2012, 5). While there have been important gains in poverty reduction internationally over the last two decades, there is a concurrent recognition that without nurturing resilience, these gains are fragile and may risk reversal in a multi-hazard context. Developing resilience is arguably a central component of ensuring sustained poverty reduction. A key way in which resilience can be strengthened is through education. In turn, resilience capacities can improve education outcomes. Combined together, sets of resilience capacities have the potential to contribute to sustained poverty reduction.

This paper analyzes this interrelationship between resilience, education, and sustained poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa. It synthesizes mixed-methods research by the Chronic Poverty Advisory Network (CPAN) to contribute to this knowledge base by focusing on data from Tanzania, Rwanda, Niger, Malawi, Ethiopia, Uganda, and rural Kenya, drawing out regional conclusions where possible, while also exploring country-level and intra-country differences. This study adopts a resilience framing to examine the potential for sustained development gains through poverty reduction, within a multi-hazard context. It focuses on the role of education as a resilience capacity, and other capacities improving education outcomes—both of which operate primarily at the adaptive and absorptive level (see Figure 1 and Table 1). It recognizes instances when education as a resilience capacity combines with certain resilience capacities improving education outcomes, which can have a transformative potential to drive escapes from poverty that are sustained over time.

Authors: Vidya Diwakar (Overseas Development Institute) and Marta Eichsteller (University College Dublin), with Andrew Shepherd (ODI).

The full report can be downloaded here

The associated brief can be downloaded here

Education, resilience and sustained poverty escapes: Policy Brief

Education is widely recognized as providing pathways out of poverty and a key resource with which to interrupt the inter-generational persistence of poverty.  However, access, progression and quality constraints combined with household disadvantages and sluggish labor markets mean that the potential is not always achieved.  This brief summarizes what can be done to promote a stronger role for education in poverty reduction, based on research which synthesizes findings on education and poverty dynamics across a number of developing countries (see summary in Box 1).  The brief is intended for decision-makers and practitioners in education together with others focused on broader aspects of poverty reduction.

USAID’s approach to education and poverty reduction has been to support ‘learning out of poverty’ and especially the basic education which will help achieve equitable access and sustained improved learning outcomes (USAID Education Policy 2018).  Better learning outcomes for poor children lead to higher future child survival rates, lifelong higher productivity and incomes, protection against ill health, and, in the case of educated women, a higher rate of investment in family by comparison with that of men.  Building human capital contributes to achieving the inclusive and sustainable economic growth which in turn reduces extreme poverty.  This brief not only reflects on education policy and programming priorities emerging from research on poverty dynamics and education, but also on how to promote the kind of household resilience capacities which are necessary to support poor children to progress far enough through the education system to make a difference to their and their families’ futures.  There has been less consideration of this latter topic in existing USAID policy documents.

Author: Andrew Shepherd

The brief can be downloaded here

The associated report can be downloaded here



Poverty and wellbeing before and during Covid-19 in Cambodia: an assessment of trends and correlates

This study investigates factors affecting welfare prior to and during Covid-19. It employs analysis of the Cambodia Living Standards Measurement—Plus Survey 2019/20 data, alongside five rounds of the Covid-19 High Frequency Phone Surveys between May 2020 and March 2021 to assess socioeconomic impacts of the pandemic.

The results point to a range of factors which could contribute to explaining poverty incidence prior to the pandemic. Household resource endowment was an important correlate of welfare, particularly in terms of possession of a mobile phone, ownership of livestock and land and access to electricity. Other factors include access to financial services, education, involvement in non-agriculture businesses, migration and remittances. However, a range of these variables are being constrained during Covid-19. For example, analysis of Covid-19 phone surveys points to the severity of income loss both in terms of breadth (share of households affected) and depth, the latter more pronounced in proportional terms among households in the bottom two quintiles with an already low consumption base, and also severe among IDPoor households. In other words, not only has income loss been deep, but it continues to get deeper over time, starting from a low base. This suggests that there are considerable processes of impoverishment (breadth), but also destitution (depth) in Cambodia as a result of Covid-19.

As a result of shocks, households were forced to rely on a range of coping strategies, especially reducing consumption, taking loans and, for poorer households in later survey waves, accessing social protection. Reliance on support from friends has been reducing over time, perhaps a result of community networks thinning out. Even though the roll-out of cash transfers has eventually reached many ID Poor households, levels may not be adequate resulting in reductions in food consumption among poorer households and continued food insecurity.

The results point to areas for policy and programming focus, including helping to narrow development gaps by area of residence alongside a regional levelling up focused on the Tonle Sap region. Alternatives to borrowing as a coping strategy are also worth considering, alongside improvements in inclusive access and quality of financial services to help mitigate the adverse consequences of indebtedness. Alongside this is a need to focus attention on children who have missed out on school and learning, particularly from poorer households.

Authors: Vidya Diwakar and Vathana Roth, with Tony Kamninga

Paper can be downloaded here

Welfare of Young Adults amid COVID-19, Conflict, and Disasters: Evidence from Afghanistan

Afghanistan has experienced decades of conflict-related insecurity and disasters, a situation that has been exacerbated by the onset of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This paper employs the Income, Expenditure, and Labour Force Survey (IE&LFS) 2019-20 to quantitatively analyse poverty and welfare loss in Afghanistan. This analysis hence covers the period before August 2021, offering an important baseline to examine deteriorating situations in subsequent years. It finds that rates of poverty and welfare loss increased during the onset of the pandemic, especially among poor households, potentially reflecting new impoverishment as well as destitution processes. Though these rates were comparable across age groups, in absolute terms, they represent approximately 4.7 million young adults living in poverty in 2019-20. Youth-headed households were disadvantaged in terms of a lower asset base. Though they had more years of schooling, and higher rates of salaried employment and migration that both helped protect against poverty, during COVID-19 they were more likely to record a temporary layoff, reflecting the precariousness of youth employment.

Disasters, insecurity, and a range of negative shocks and stressors alongside COVID-19 contributed to welfare loss, and, in some situations, were amplified during the pandemic. Many households reduced expenditures and the quality or quantity of food in response to these shocks, particularly during COVID-19. Food insecurity was a related consequence, heightened during the pandemic, especially among youth-headed households. Other responses common during COVID-19 included an increase in work-related strategies, potentially substituting a decline in social capital within the community. Though the rate of economic activities among women in general was strikingly low, there was a slight increase in employment during COVID-19 among women in poor households, and among women in households experiencing disasters or in insecure areas amid COVID-19. This may point to a potential narrowing of the gender differential in employment in crisis contexts, though this itself is a sign of distress where women in poverty may have no recourse but to engage in precarious work and uphold an increased work burden to meet household needs in times of distress.

Author: Vidya Diwakar

Paper can be downloaded here

The role of agriculture in poverty escapes in Kenya – Developing a capabilities approach in the context of climate change

Rural poverty poses a significant developmental challenge in Kenya. Using a panel survey in rural Kenya and qualitative material from focus groups and life history interviews from the regions of Makueni and Vihiga, we investigate the changing role of how agriculture and farming practices have contributed to sustained escapes from poverty since 2000. In this study we analyse environmental, social and personal structures that facilitate conversion of agricultural strategies that enable poverty escapes in the context of climate change. Our study identifies that agriculture still forms an essential aspect of Kenyan households’ economic and social wellbeing. However, the study results indicate that links between accumulation of assets and poverty escapes are ambiguous, poor households find it problematic to convert agricultural strategies into a profit, and climate change shocks further exasperate these difficulties. We argue that constraints in conversion structures, such as limited infrastructure, and in conversion processes such as ongoing difficulties in land procurement and inheritance, unsustainable farming practices and continued lack of knowledge on climate-smart agriculture affect not only poverty escapes, but also the ability to adapt to and mitigate against environmental shocks. Development of conversion processes to improve existing conversion structures should be at the core of public interventions that seek to sustainably reduce poverty amidst climate change in rural Kenya.

This publication was authored by CPAN partners Marta Eichsteller, Tim Njagi, and Elvin Nyukuric, and was published in World Development journal.

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Mixed methods approach for research on youth inclusion in labour markets in Niger

This article briefly explores how to combine two qualitative methodologies to inspect the topic of youth inclusion in Niger via a mixed methods analysis. It presents the ethnographic approach developed by LASDEL’s social anthropological qualitative methodology and the CPAN’s critical realist mixed methods approach to research and analysis of poverty dynamics. In assessing their joint functioning, it also inspects some limitations of the experimented exercise for Niger.

Read the methods paper here

Read the associated report here

Read the policy briefs on education, migration, and entrepreneurship

Authors: Lucia da Corta, Aïssa Diarra, Vidya Diwakar, Abdoutan Harouna

Youth inclusion in labour markets in Niger: Gender dynamics and livelihoods

This paper uses a mixed methods approach to identify factors that challenge and enable young adults’ inclusion in the world of work in Niger, through a gender-streamlined analysis of different poverty trajectories of livelihoods and how these are affected by training, education and migration.

We find a high prevalence of self-employment activities in rural and urban contexts in the Tahoua and Zinder regions, characterised by low security of income flows, gendered professions and asset-dependent pathways to escape poverty. Among the barriers to labour inclusion, high education fees drastically reduce job prospects, particularly for the poorest. Those accessing schooling attest to the lack of stable offers or civil service contracts, instead engaging in informal service provision.

The dearth of savings and the unaffordability of productive assets (land, vehicles) hinder the ability to start an investment. Internal and international migration is seen as a method of occupational upgrading within predominantly non-poor trajectories by young people who can save and invest capital upon return, but it is a capital-intensive and risky investment that may be unaffordable for the poorest.

Changing norms influence youth labour trajectories. Divorce and remarriage rates are higher for young women and efforts to obtain training require careful renegotiations of gender and generational norms, including working in innovative ways within local social contexts.

Read the full report here

Read the associated methods paper here

Read the policy briefs on education, migration, and entrepreneurship

Authors: Lucia da Corta, Aïssa Diarra, Vidya Diwakar, Abdoutan Harouna, Cecilia Poggi

Youth inclusion in labour markets in Niger: Policy briefs on education, migration, and entrepreneurship

This set of briefs is based on the mixed methods research that identified factors that challenge and enable young adults’ inclusion in the world of work in Niger, through a gender-streamlined analysis of different poverty trajectories of livelihoods and how these are affected by training, education and migration. Each brief focuses on one of the key themes of the research findings: education and training, migration, and entrepreneurship. It collectively draws attention to key areas that require policy action in order to improve youth inclusion in labour markets in ways that can facilitate their pathways out of poverty.

Read the policy brief on education here

Read the policy brief on migration here

Read the policy brief on entrepreneurship here

Read the associated report here

Read the associated methods paper here

Authors: Andrew Shepherd, Abdoutan Harouna, Cecilia Poggi, Vidya Diwakar, Aïssa Diarra, Lucia Da Corta

Poverty dynamics and social protection in Nigeria

Nigeria has a large and growing share of people living in poverty. Roughly 40.1% of its population live below the national poverty line, while a similar share (46.4%) are multidimensionally poor based on deprivations in education, health, and living standards. Covid19 has amplified these concerns, forecasted by the World Bank to push an estimated additional 10 million Nigerians into extreme poverty by 2022.

This study investigates key drivers associated with descents into and exits from relative monetary poverty across zones of Nigeria, the ways in which COVID-19 pandemic are likely to impact these dynamics, and implications for the design of social protection programmes and policy in Nigeria. It analyses: 1) the Nigeria General Household Survey Panel from 2010/11-2015/16, 2) nine rounds of the Covid19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey 2020-2021, 3) the Nigeria Living Standards Survey 2018/19, and 4) a series of key informant interviews with social protection stakeholders in 2021. The results of the study point to a combination of asset and livelihood-based enablers for households to sustain poverty escapes, and draw out implications for the design of social protection in Nigeria in the time ahead.

Read the full report here

Read the briefing note here

Authors: Vidya Diwakar and Adeniran Adedeji

The research is funded through FCDO and commissioned by Save the Children International (Nigeria) and Action Against Hunger through the Child Development Grant Programme.

Rural poverty dynamics in Zambia: 2012-2019

Rural poverty rates in Zambia have stood above 75% since 1991, according to national poverty lines. Furthermore, Figure 1 shows that 76.6% of the rural population is living in poverty compared to 23.4% of the urban population, based on the national poverty line of 214 Zambian kwacha (ZMW) per adult equivalent per month. However, these rates hide underlying poverty dynamics in these areas. CPAN research across a range of developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa reveals that there are considerable movements of households into and out of poverty over time. Understanding the drivers of these poverty dynamics is therefore critical in efforts to speed up poverty reduction, as different poverty trajectories require (at least some) different policy responses. A more nuanced understanding of the poverty profile and dynamics in Zambia can thus contribute to more effective policy and programming efforts towards eradicating poverty.

This study examines the factors that support sustained escapes from poverty in rural Zambia, where there are stubbornly high poverty rates, and how to prevent impoverishment and tackle chronic poverty. For this dynamic analysis of poverty, the study uses the Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Survey (RALS) to examine the factors associated with sustained escapes, transitory escapes, impoverishment and chronic poverty. Understanding the factors driving these movements can be used by policy-makers in making progress towards achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 1 by developing new and strengthening existing policies and programmes to eradicate poverty.

Authors: Vidya Diwakar, Mitelo Subakanya, Mary Lubungu, and Antony Chapoto

Download the report here.

Assessing the drivers of poverty in Zambia: evidence from 2010 and 2015

Poverty has remained high and also predominantly a rural phenomenon in Zambia, despite various interventions and policies over the years. As of 2015, estimates put rural poverty at 73.6%, compared to urban levels of 23.4% (CSO and World Bank, n.d.). Understanding and responding to the drivers of rural and urban poverty can help contribute to poverty reduction. The objective of this paper is to investigate these drivers of poverty in Zambia. It responds to the question: Why has extreme poverty remained at such a high level and so widespread? To answer this question, the analysis employs the 2010 and 2015 rounds of the Zambia Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) to identify correlates of poverty in rural and urban areas, by province and by expenditure quintile. It also explores the extent to which continued high levels of poverty may be accounted for by varied poverty dynamics around the poverty line.

The analysis reveals that there continue to be provinces in Zambia with high poverty in 2015, much of which is chronic in nature. Relatively limited escapes from poverty and more variable provincial-level impoverishment suggests a context in which resilience is weak. Even so, there are positive factors that offer some protection against poverty and improve welfare across the wealth distribution – in particular, a secondary education or higher, access to electricity, non-farm enterprises and owning livestock. A policy focus on these areas and the relevant intersections (for example, the combination of a secondary education or higher and a non-farm enterprise) would benefit Zambians on the road to zero poverty.

Authors: Vidya Diwakar and Richard Bwalya

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The future of Zambian poverty to 2060: assessing national and sub-national trends across scenarios

Poverty in Zambia is extensive and a persistent problem. Zambia’s recent period of positive macroeconomic performance did not lead to commensurate improvements for the poorest Zambians. Over half of all Zambians live below the national poverty line and about 1 in 3 live on less than $1.00 per day. Long-term trends in development in Zambia suggest that poverty could remain a challenge for many years to come.

This report utilizes the 2015 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) to understand the current state of poverty in Zambia, and examines the potential long-term future of poverty in Zambia using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system to project poverty in Zambia at national and provincial levels. In this effort it also projects poverty across scenarios that reflect policy choices and possible patterns of development in Zambia.

Authors: Mickey Rafa, Singumbe Muyeba, Jonathan Moyer, and Taylor Hanna

Download the report here.