Zimbabwe COVID-19 Poverty Monitor: May 2022

How is COVID-19 impacting people living in, or at risk of, poverty in Zimbabwe? What policies are needed to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on chronic poverty? CPAN’s COVID-19 Poverty Monitor is an ongoing research project that interviews people about their experiences of the pandemic. To find out more about the project, visit our blog about the global project. This bulletin dives into the main economic, health, food security and other concerns of those interviewed, as well as policies to minimise the impacts of COVID-19 suggested by the respondents.


Post-lockdown recovery

By early 2022 the lockdown in Zimbabwe eased as the threat of COVID-19 declined (Pindula news. 6 April 2022), with the situation returning to a ‘new normal’. This brought improved well-being for many. The impact of the lockdowns on people’s access to basic services lessened, declining from 21% in 2020 to 14% in 2021. Restrictions in agricultural markets have declined also, from 13% in 2020 to 10% in 2021 (2021 Rural Livelihood Assessment Report).

Income poverty remains high, and many people are extremely poor, although extreme poverty has fallen from a high of 49% in 2020 to 43% in 2021. Infant and maternal mortality rates have also fallen, educational attainment has improved, access to basic services has expanded and asset ownership has increased (ZIMSTAT and World Bank (2022). Zimbabwe Poverty Assessment: Core Poverty Diagnostics. Powerpoint presentation, March 7, 2022).

Thambo, 86, who is in the poor wellbeing group (see Table on wellbeing categories and characteristics), who lives with his orphaned grandchildren in Tsholotsho was relieved that access to healthcare services had improved: 

“Since lockdown restrictions were loosened, it has become possible to travel to clinics and hospitals. Drugs are also now easier to access, even from omalayisha (informal transporters) since travel and courier services are slowly normalising.” Thambo, 86, poor well-being group, Tsholotsho

Thambo added that public gatherings for learning, social, economic, religious, and political purposes are now allowed. “Groups can now gather for all sorts of legal activities. This is good for developmental work, social and moral support of all our community members.”

Thenjiwe, a 55-year-old builder from Tsholotsho (poor wellbeing group), was enthusiastic about improved access to shops, markets, and services. “Yes, our little world has reopened so services have since become available near us.”

Bruce, a 50-year-old farmer and horticulturalist was relieved that things were getting better, back to pre-COVID-19 levels.

Due to the relaxation of the lockdown, I am now able to access the Manhenga market to sell some farm produce and fresh vegetables. My income has since improved as compared to last year when all the markets were closed.” Bruce, 50, vulnerable but not poor well-being group, Bindura.

His life has transformed, and he is living better. He can now afford three meals per day with bread and eggs at breakfast, and sadza (maize meal porridge) and meat two to three times a week.

Those challenges are things of the past and I can now afford some little things that I could not buy during the time that we last spoke (the first-round interview in November 2021). The price of farm inputs is very high.” Bruce, 50, vulnerable but not poor well-being group, Bindura.


Groups at risk of impoverishment due to the COVID-19 pandemic

Recovery in well-being has not been experienced evenly, with some failing to see their well-being bounce back as lockdown restrictions relax. Many still face further impoverishment. Unemployment and underemployment are widespread. Hyperinflation was mentioned by almost every sentinel household, whatever their wealth status, as reducing their standard of living. It worsens the effect of the pandemic and bites deeply into household budgets. Widespread livestock diseases have also had a profoundly negative effect. Downward mobility from these shocks has been compounded by the impact of climate change, experienced through cyclones, more frequent droughts, and rain variability, with negative impacts on livelihoods, food security and resilience.

Semi-skilled workers (formal and informal sector)

  • Urban workers: increased risk, with rising inflation alongside depressed salaries and widespread job losses.

  • Borrowers: widespread indebtedness, with households borrowing to survive during the pandemic now falling into arrears. This is particularly acute in urban areas, where residents have accrued rental and utility debts. 

  • Urban households: many have failed to recover from job losses triggered by COVID-19 lockdowns (including factory workers, informal traders, bus conductors, drivers, and hairdressers). Some have moved into adverse forms of coping, such as reduced food, distress migration and transactional sex.

  • Business owners: nearly one in five rural households reported a drop in business income as one of the effects of Covid-19 in 2021.

Women

  • Women headed households: the flow of remittances reduced or stopped at the start of the pandemic, particularly affecting de facto women-headed households. In Zimbabwe, two in every five households were female-headed. Remittances are increasing slowly but from a low base. Many international migrants lost their jobs and are struggling to find new ones, particularly as the rise in xenophobia in South Africa increases the challenges of the job search.

  • Female cross-borders traders: not yet returned to the former level of well-being, as borders have only recently re-opened and traders need to re-establish their trading links, which had largely broken down over the past two years.

Youth (15-35 years)

  • NEETs: 45% of young people (aged 15-24) were not in employment, education, or training (NEET) (ZIMSTAT (2020). 2019 Labour Force Child Labour Survey report.  Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT), Harare, Zimbabwe).

  • Secondary school children: High drop-out rates amongst secondary school children, with reduced interest in education and many opting to work and contribute to household welfare instead.

  • Children from poor households: Reduced household incomes mean that many parents are unable to pay fees and other school and college expenses. Some have fallen into arrears, putting their children’s school places in jeopardy. 

  • Unemployed youth: Unemployment has increased, particularly amongst the youth, who are struggling to find work and build up an asset base. A young person’s first job is hugely important, potentially setting their path in life, and the longer they are unemployed, the harder it is to find high-quality employment.

  • Drug and alcohol users: Drug and alcohol use is increasing, as youth seek to cope. 


Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

Ranking of self-reported impacts

The biggest changes that people in Zimbabwe said the pandemic had made to their lives were:

  • Loss of educational opportunities for children

  • Reduced household income as a result of lockdown restrictions.  

Lost education: Missed learning was cited by many people, including the poorest, as the worst consequence of the pandemic. Many children missed almost two years of schooling due to the lockdowns. Poor and rural children have been the worst affected by reduced learning outcomes, as access to online learning was limited, further entrenching inequalities.

“Only urban learners of better off classes could afford virtual learning, but the contrary is true with our rural folk.” Thambo, 86, woman, Tsholotsho, poor well-being group.

“How many parents even own smart gadgets or laptops. That approach was never practical for 99% of us.” Thulani, 37, woman, Tsholotsho, resilient well-being group

Unaffordable education: Nicole, a vegetable vendor in Bulawayo explains how COVID-19 affected her children’s education:

The most important impact on my household has been the gap in learning that my children suffered because of not attending school. I feel that I have failed as a parent because I had no income at that time and so could not afford to pay for the children to do extra lessons. The charges were US$10 per child, per month, on average. This meant that for my three children to learn I would have had to pay US$30 a month, which I did not have. In addition, I could not afford the ICT gadgets that were a requirement for the children to do online learning.” Nicole, 40, woman, poor well-being group, Bulawayo.

Indebtedness: When schools re-opened in mid-February 2022, many parents did not have the savings to pay school fees. Others, with accumulated debts from previous years, were barred from sending their children back to school until the debts were cleared. Thenjiwe, a 55-year-old builder in Tsholotsho (poor well-being group), laments: “The children are back at school though we still have not paid school fees to date,” so, his children cannot attend. However, people place such value on education that some reported clearing arrears and paying the new term’s school fees so that their children could return to school even while the family was so severely food constrained that they were surviving on only one meal a day.

Reduction in income

Job losses and reduced remittances. Job losses were also triggered by border closures and reduced business revenues.

“Ever since the outbreak of the novel virus, a lot of our children have lost jobs in the diaspora, in particular in South Africa and Botswana.” Very poor well-being group, Tsholotsho.

Income Losses: The lockdown drastically reduced household incomes across study sites and across income and livelihood groups, reducing people’s quality of life. Many households are recovering, slowly, but are struggling to regain their former standard of living. ZIMVAC found that around half of all rural households experienced reduced sources of income and a loss of employment (52% in 2020, 48% in 2021). Reduced discretionary spending squeezes retail and service sector profits and this trend continues as hyperinflation compounds the impacts of COVID-19.

Limited freedom of movement to search for job opportunities, particularly in the context of lockdowns, impaired the ability of households to respond to income shocks.

The pandemic dried up my income sources, namely remittances and petty trading. My children lost their jobs during the pandemic and limited movements made it difficult for my daughter to venture into any other income generating activities.” Destitute/extreme poor well-being group, Chitungwiza.

Increased business costs: Social distancing meant that markets closed. Brenda, an informal trader in Bindura (vulnerable but not poor well-being group) explained that market closures and travel restrictions ruined her business because rather than source goods herself, she had to pay for runners to go and order goods for her from Mutare and Harare and bribe the police to let them travel, despite the restrictions. This slashed her profits, but her business survived, and she is now rebuilding it to pre-COVID levels.

Retreat into subsistence: Some farm households have withdrawn from markets in the face of hyperinflation, retaining produce for self-provisioning.


Shocks and disasters overlapping with COVID-19

A number of other shocks and disasters overlaid the COVID-19 pandemic shocks (hyperinflation, indebtedness, distress migration, food insecurity, health and social shocks, livestock disease, as well as weather-related shocks) seriously affecting wellbeing and reducing household’s ability to cope.

Economic shocks

Hyperinflation was ranked as the most important shock, affecting all four study sites, both rural and urban, and by all wellbeing groups. At the beginning of 2022, ordinary people were alarmed by the skyrocketing prices of basic goods and services and the worsening exchange rate. These are driving up the cost of living and eroding households’ purchasing power. Many have lost the value of their savings. Salaries and pensions are nearly worthless. ZIMVAC found that the most prevalent shock in 2021 was cash shortage (experienced by 57% of households).

The local currency, known as RTGS or Zimbabwe dollars, is fast losing its value against other currencies. Retailers prefer to deal in United States Dollars ($) or South African Rand and “charge commodities a notch higher if they were being purchased with the RTGS”.

Brian in Bindura complained that business owners are still short-changing them by charging exorbitant prices using parallel market rates (currently Zimbabwe is using multiple currencies with official and parallel exchange rates), which are beyond the reach of an ordinary person in the rural areas. He gave an example of increases in the price of a bottle of cooking oil from $4 in November 2021 to $4.80 in March 2022 and $1 for a loaf of bread in November 2021 to $1.2 in March 2022. In RTGS values, cooking oil increased from about RTGS 450 in December 2021 to RTGS 1,000 in March 2022. (Poor well-being group, Bindura).

Hyperinflation drives up the cost of urban residential rents and utilities every month. Nicole of Bulawayo commented that her well-being was being affected by inflation and the dramatic increase in the cost of her water bill. (Poor well-being group, Bulawayo).

Food and non-food groceries have skyrocketed. 500 Rand could buy way more before Covid-19 than it can now.” Thambo, poor well-being group, Tsholotsho.

Hyperinflation is driving up the cost of health care and school fees so that an increasing proportion of the population, including the previously non-poor, are unable to meet their basic needs.

Indebtedness increased during the pandemic amongst non-poor households (vulnerable but not poor, and in a few cases, resilient households) as well as amongst the poor (refer to Wellbeing Categories and Characteristics). Many urban households struggled to both buy food and pay rent and fell into rent and utility bill arrears.

Nkosana in Bulawayo was unable to pay his rent on time during the lockdown. This affected his relationship with his landlord, who became antagonistic and threatened to evict him. The situation has improved again, as he has gradually managed to resume regular rental payments. (Poor well-being group, Bulawayo).

Charity, an 81-year-old widow in Chitungwiza, has been in arrears for more than 10 months now. She is afraid that her household will have to return to living in the rural areas if the council evict her because of rent arrears. (Destitute/extreme poor well-being group, Chitungwiza)

Distress migration: Distress migration is a drastic coping strategy. An estimated three million Zimbabweans lived abroad in 2015, and that number is almost certainly higher today. It usually involves one or more household members seeking work in another country and sending remittances to support the people they have left behind. This coping and risk spreading strategy are common in Zimbabwe, especially in regions of low agricultural potential, such as Matabeleland.

The research found that the dire economic situation has driven many to migrate.  Nkosana, a 42-year-old man in Bulawayo (poor wellbeing category) says his wife has been pushed by falling household income to leave to look for work in South Africa. She has not been able to remit any money to help with household expenses yet. Nkosana complains that this is effectively a breakdown of the family unit, and it has greatly affected the children, as he cannot play the role of mother as well and his older children have had to take on the responsibility of looking after their younger siblings. (Poor well-being group, Bulawayo).

In Bindura, Beauty a 65-year-old widow (poor wellbeing category) indicated that both of her children had migrated. Her son is back at work in Mozambique, while her daughter is looking for a job in Zambia. Her son regularly sends his mother kapenta (tiny, dried fish, Tanganyika sardine), which she sells, making the income that she lives on (poor well-being group, Bindura).

Charity, an 81-year-old widow, lives with her daughter and grandchildren in Chitungwiza. Her son lost his job in South Africa during the pandemic and is struggling to earn money. This means the money he sends back is irregular, having a negative impact on their household. For example, her grandchildren had to delay returning to school for two weeks as their parents did not have enough money to pay school fees.

Christine, who lives in Chitungwiza, has a grandson living in South Africa. He used to send regular remittances but now he sometimes fails to send them anything at all. She understands that he is under pressure. The company he worked for downsized, and he is married now and has to use his disposable income to provide for his new family in South Africa. Christine lives with her six other orphaned grandchildren, and is now destitute, in the extremely poor wellbeing category. She has limited the number of meals they have a day and reduced the quality of food they eat. They cannot afford to eat meat. Christine is worried that the children may suffer from malnutrition.

Rural-urban links under pressure: Rural-urban linkages are a strong feature of Zimbabwean life, with many urban residents having a rural base. There are also high levels of internal migration, with an extended family spread over a wide geographic area, working in different livelihoods. This spreads risk and enables diversified sources of income across the network. There are two-way support systems between rural and urban areas with rural residents providing food, in particular maize, beans, groundnuts and pumpkins to urban family members, especially when they produce a bumper crop. When the rural side of the family is struggling, from drought or another shock, the urban-based members send help. During the pandemic, the shock was so widespread that it overwhelmed these traditional safety nets, and family members could no longer provide the traditional support to other members. This resulted in desperation, where some households were pushed to adopt adverse coping such as distress migration out of the country, borrowing, begging and transactional sex.

Nathan (31) a self-employed mobile phone repairer lives alone in Bulawayo (vulnerable but not poor well-being group). His income has fallen, with negative consequences for his rural extended family as he can no longer afford to send them groceries or money. This has affected his relationship with them. Nathan thinks that his parents feel that “the city life has swallowed him, and he has abandoned them”.

Nonthandazo and her husband are based in Bulawayo (vulnerable but not poor well-being group). Although they are not poor, hardships from the Covid-19 lockdowns pushed Nonthandazo to migrate to their rural home for a short time, to reduce their spending on food.

The challenge of not being able to work affected both me and my husband. On my part, I had to move back to our rural home in order to engage in farming. At first, it was difficult for me to adjust to rural life because I was now used to city life. I gradually adjusted although it was difficult to live far away from my children and home.”

Some whole households undertook urban-rural migration to reduce household spending, particularly on food and rent. Rural extended family networks facilitate such moves by, for example, providing a plot of land so that the migrants could cultivate and become food sufficient. They often also helped build houses (mud and thatch huts) and shared agricultural implements.

Experience shows that retreating to the rural area is a key coping strategy for urban families in hard economic situations, not only for the poor and very poor but also for the non-poor, such as Nonthandazo.

Social

Xenophobia in migrant destinations: Migrants to South Africa are facing a rise in xenophobia alongside depressed job markets. Many who lost their jobs during the pandemic have not been reinstated, as the COVID-related recession has reduced job opportunities and new regulations for foreign workers have been introduced. These factors combine with xenophobia to exclude Zimbabweans from job opportunities in South Africa, and employers increasingly prefer to hire fellow South Africans. There are pressure groups in South Africa such as Operation Dudula, a group of anti-immigration vigilantes that reinforce discrimination against foreigners. A Zimbabwean man, Elvis Nyathi a gardener, originally from Matobo District Matabeleland South, was horrifically murdered in April 2022, by anti-migration protesters in Diepsloot township, north of Johannesburg, South Africa.

Teresa, an 81-year-old widow in Tsholotsho (very poor wellbeing category) explains that her family’s wellbeing has since worsened because her children cannot send her enough groceries or remittances from South Africa. They lost their jobs in the pandemic and are still unemployed. They will probably move back to Zimbabwe soon, as their permits allowing them to stay in South Africa legally will expire soon and are unlikely to be renewed.

Gendered impacts: Women now face an increased burden of unpaid household work. Many young girls dropped out of school, and others were compelled into early marriage. Child marriage was already high in Zimbabwe, with about 1 in 3 (34%) of girls under 18 years being married.

Women and girls have suffered more than men and boys especially on unpaid household duties. There was a lot of burden on girls and women because they have to do household labour like laundry and cleaning. Educationally, due to low income, boys were allowed to go to school while girls were forced to stay at home and others were forced into marriage due to these challenges.” Brian, 22, well-being group, poor.

“The number of children that returned to school after 8 February 2022 is less than 75%. I estimate that three out of ten girls, aged between 14 to 16 years, did not return to school due to teenage pregnancy and domestic work. I also estimate that two out of ten boys, aged between 15 to 18 years, did not return to school due to marriage and drug abuse.” Brian, 22, well-being group, poor.

“COVID-19 has impacted more on women and girls than on men and boys. Women were now forced to take on the hard work normally done by men, especially those women-headed families and also girls … dropped out of school in order to find jobs or got married.” Bianca, wealthy well-being group.

 “When poverty strikes a household, everyone feels the impact no matter age or gender.” Benjamin, resilient well-being group.

Health

Physiological stresses include fear of contracting COVID-19 and the inability to mourn the dead.

We lost neighbours and friends during the peak of COVID-19, and it was so painful because we could not even gather for the burial to bid them farewell’ (Teresa, 81, widow, very poor wellbeing category, Tsholotsho).

Sexually transmitted diseases: The drop in income affected some households’ health. Noah, a 24-year-old orphan, is an informal worker who is looking after his six younger siblings in Bulawayo. His household, which is in the very poor wellbeing category, is an example of the negative social consequences that resulted from the shocks brought about by COVID-19.

The most important impact on my household has been the dramatic reduction in my income that has caused all the other problems I now face. Together with my siblings, we are living from hand to mouth. We must cut down on meals and the quality of food we now eat. To add on to this, my sisters’ health is now compromised as they are now at risk of contracting sexually transmitted infections because they have resorted to having boyfriends who can provide for them in terms of personal ware like toiletries, mobile phone airtime and sanitary wear.” Very poor well-being group, Bulawayo. 

Drug abuse: The use of alcohol and illegal drugs to cope with social stresses and their lack of opportunities has increased amongst young people. A young self-employed barber in Bindura started taking drugs when he began to struggle after his business collapsed due to the lockdown. He became addicted to drugs including mutoriro or crystal meth (methamphetamine), Bronclear (a brand of cough medicine containing codeine and alcohol) and marijuana, in order to cope with stress. He explained that he is still addicted to drugs and:

“It is my hope that my return to work will keep me busy and occupied so that I will manage my addiction to drugs.” Bindura, poor wellbeing category. 

Chipo, a young woman, in the very poor wellbeing group, lives in Chitungwiza with her younger brother who is a drug addict. She said:

“Since we spoke in November (2021, during the first round of PMI interviews) my brother has been hospitalised for his crystal meth addiction. I thought he was recovering but he did not take much time before he relapsed. I think it was because he came back into the same stressful environment. Very poor well-being group, Chitungwiza. 

Food security

Limited food quality amongst the poor: Food security improved amongst most households between November 2021 and early 2022, although some are still struggling. The majority of poor households increased consumption from one to two meals a day and are eating better quality food again. Amongst them are those who have started receiving remittances again or who have found work. For example, Beauty’s son re-started his job in Mozambique and has started sending her remittances again (poor well-being group, Bindura). However, many still do not have enough to eat and food quality is still poor, with many unable to afford protein, relying instead on a diet of maize and green vegetables. Several respondents commented: “We eat for survival, not for enjoyment”.

Some households depending on income from retail or service micro-enterprises are seeing continued declines in well-being, as consumer spending is squeezed by the impacts of unemployment, enterprise failure and hyperinflation. Some others anticipate worsening food security in the coming months due to the impact of hyperinflation, the worsening exchange rate and poor rains.

The food situation is still worsening. This is mainly due to the poor rains and the ever-increasing prices of maize meal, flour, and cooking oil.” Themjiwe, 55, male, poor well-being group, Tsholotsho.

Even richer families have seen luxuries disappear from their diets, such as yoghurt and ice cream, and bread is sometimes substituted with maqebelengwana (a bread made from mealie meal) or isimodo (a type of thick bread made using flour and water). Some of the ‘less desired foods’ are more nutritious than their regular diet and provide health benefits, such as soya chunks, beans, wild vegetables such as okra, Bidens pilosa (blackjack) and Amaranthus hybridus (pigweed), as well as edible insects.

Extremely poor households are still food insecure. Some have experienced weight loss and poor health due to poor nutrition, especially among older people. In Bulawayo, Nkosana, a casual labourer, describes his family as an “underfed household, where there is not enough food to eat, and …. sometimes we are in the situation whereby there is no food at all”.

Casual labourers still struggle to find paid work as households who would normally employ them are still reducing their discretionary expenditure. “The local community still cannot afford to hire us as casual labour.” (Tabitha, 54, female, very poor well-being group, Tsholotsho).

Improvements amongst the non-poor: non-poor households were found to have returned to eating three meals a day, and meat once a week.

I am now buying meat, bread, and butter as I wish so that I can get back my weight lost during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic. So, I buy two loaves of bread and two kg of beef enough for me and my domestic worker. It is only that I am left with very few teeth in my mouth, I wish I had all my teeth to chew all the meat!” Woman, resilient well-being group, Bindura.

 

Food insecurity depends on self-provisioning: for many in Zimbabwe, food security depends on self-provisioning. This has become even more the case in the face of hyperinflation and a worsening exchange rate. Even urban households attempt self-reliance and some Chitungwiza residents (an urban area near Harare) farm at their ‘rural homes’ and grow enough to meet their needs in good rainfall years. For example, Christine, an 83-year-old widow (extremely poor wellbeing category) used to farm at her rural home in Wedza (Mashonaland East Province) as well as engage in urban agriculture. But she is no longer able to farm as she is recovering from a stroke, so did not grow any crops at all last season. As a result, her family does not have enough food stored for even a month, and without an income to enable them to buy off the market their future food security is precarious.

 

Weather-related shocks

COVID-related shocks overlay numerous other shocks and weather-related shocks are particularly significant. ZIMVAC found that waterlogging (related to flooding) was experienced by 45% of households in 2021. This was the second most prevalent shock in 2021 after cash shortage, followed by drought (26%) and livestock deaths (21%).

Cyclone Ana : Bindura was negatively affected by Cyclone Ana, which hit north-eastern Zimbabwe in January 2022, causing heavy rains and flooding, and affecting at least 3,000 people. The farmers in Bindura estimated that cyclone Ana destroyed 75% of the crops. Houses, schools, and roads were also destroyed.

Cyclone Ana was one of the shocks that drove people in this area into poverty.” Very poor well-being group, Bindura.

The cyclone took the roof of my house off and destroyed some of my furniture, like sofas and beds. It also killed all the 100 broiler chicks for my poultry projects and destroyed other people’s crops and infrastructure.” Brenda, resilient wellbeing category, Bindura.

Cyclone Anna affected my area with massive destruction of infrastructure, for example the dirt roads, school roofs like Manhenga primary school and other houses were destroyed. Furniture was also destroyed. Fortunately, no lives were lost but all the crops were destroyed and swept away.” Bruce, vulnerable but not poor wellbeing category, Bindura.

The farmers reported that the rains during the cyclone were followed by a protracted dry spell that destroyed crops all over again. They predicted that this year would be a drought year.

After Cyclone Anna, there was a serious dry spell that followed……the crops that survived cyclone Anna did not (all) survive the dry spell, which lasted for about three weeks from mid-February to 1 March 2022. Soon after that dry spell, there was a hailstorm that destroyed tobacco and farmers had to write off their crops. So, this year there is drought. Again, too many people who did not plant small grains are likely to be food insecure owing to a dry spell which lasted for a month.” Brian, poor well-being group, Bindura.

Droughts seriously affected the wellbeing of farm households in Tsholotsho, reducing food security. The rains stopped abruptly before the crops had matured. Some recorded low yields, while others experienced complete harvest failure. The drought also affected the mopane worms (a popular wild food), which did not thrive this year, resulting in a low harvest. The low yields left households food insecure.

I have suffered a great loss this year due to the heavy rain followed by a dry spell. This drought affected my crops, especially maize, and they were written off. Only a small piece of sorghum has survived.” (Beauty, poor well-being group, Bindura).

“Even amacimbi (mopane worm) never did too well this time around. The ancestors are probably not very happy with the things that your young ones are doing in this world, so they have taken the rains away early.” (Very poor well-being group, Tsholotsho)

“Crop production for the 2021/22 season is disappointingly low because of the insufficient rains, which went away just before crop maturity.” (Poor well-being group, Tsholotsho).

Livestock disease: Livestock losses from January Disease (theileriosis) (2018-22) have had a devastating effect on farmers, driving asset losses and, in some areas, leaving the majority of households without draught power, limiting cultivation and agricultural production. This led to smaller areas being ploughed, and lower production, contributing to food insecurity. The loss of livestock also impaired households’ ability to cope, as it removed the option of selling cattle to meet contingencies.

Teresa, a farmer in Tsholotsho (very poor well-being group) emphasised that January Disease was the most prominent disease that affected the cattle in the community.

The Department of Veterinary Services provided farmers in Bindura with medication and access to dips to control ticks. They recommend vaccination and dipping cattle twice a week and this regime has stabilised the situation, leaving farmers optimistic that this outbreak of January Disease is over. Some livestock were still dying of January disease in January 2022, but the incidence has dramatically reduced.


Coping strategies

In early 2022, people were still employing a diverse range of coping strategies. They were carefully prioritising expenditure and forgoing luxuries. Reducing the number, size and quality of meals was the most widely adopted coping strategy, and was reported by all wellbeing groups, except for the resilient and wealthy (categories 5 and 6). Migration and remittances, together with livelihood diversification were also frequently cited coping strategies. Others included: urban agriculture; sub-letting urban homes; borrowing; reverse migration from urban to rural areas; illegally circumventing lockdown rules and transactional sex.

We adopted coping strategies like reducing meals and getting support from parents and relatives who are also struggling to make the ends meet. For school fees, I was enrolled into the Basic Education Assistance Module (BEAM) funding from the government, and I sometimes get free meals at school when schools are open. I also reduced meals and resorting to poor quality food obtained after engaging in casual labour. These strategies have worked but it impacted on the health and wellbeing of my family. My parents had to work tirelessly to bring food on the table. The food we were eating was not good since we would eat anything that came our way. We are very fortunate now that the situation has changed due to the lockdown relaxation, and my parents are back at their informal business and are getting a little that can help us to survive and go to school.” (Branson, 18, poor well-being group, Bindura).

“We relied on leasing out some hectares of land, as well as the pension from my father but it is not enough to cater for the family. I sometimes would have to use illegal means to order my goods for resale. There are illegal transport operators who were helping me to smuggle shoes from Mozambique although it was very expensive. To a greater extent, these coping strategies have helped much even though it was not a walk in the park.” (Billy, 28, informal trader and farmer, vulnerable but not poor well-being group, Bindura).

Once the lockdown was relaxed in January 2022, Billy’s situation improved. His income grew and he and his family are getting back to normal again.

Some households found that their preferred form of coping was insufficient. They were forced to adopt adverse coping mechanisms, which resulted in an increase in social harm, created long term damage and impaired resilience and the ability to move out of poverty. We found adverse coping to be widespread (engagement in, for example, transactional sex and artisanal mining) and hyperinflation, the reduced harvest likely in 2022 and any subsequent shocks will have negative consequences for a population that has largely already exhausted its resilience and ability to cope safely.


Programmes to mitigate impoverishment

A number of social protection and food security programmes are in place in Zimbabwe, provided by the Government, international development partners and NGOs, including:

  • Food assistance

  • Cash transfers

  • Agricultural inputs 

However, the social protection system failed to systematically protect well-being. Inadequate transfers and low coverage meant that the majority did not receive cash transfers or food aid during the height of the lockdown, even if they were extremely poor or destitute. So, by November 2021, only 12% of households nationally had received food assistance in the form of grain distribution. The survey found that 19% of the food assistance was provided to households in rural areas compared to 1.2% in urban areas. Only 4% of households received Covid-19 cash transfers, with fewer rural than urban households in receipt and only 3% of households received any other form of cash transfer.

Our data confirms this extremely low-level support, with respondents in March 2022 stating that they received very little support from either Government or non-governmental organisations. Negligible support was reported by PMI respondents in Bulawayo, Chitungwiza and Tsholotsho, but some participants in Bindura received Government social protection assistance, most of them older people. In contrast, all households in the two rural PMI study sites received inputs for planting one acre from the Government’s Pfumvudza/Intwasa conservation farming programme for smallholder farmers, plus advice from the local AGRETEX officers about zero-tillage agriculture. (The Input Package for a Pfumvudza/Intwasa Plot was consistent across the rural research sites, Bindura and Tsholotsho and distributed through the Presidential Inputs Programme. The package consisted of 2kgs seed (maize or sorghum), 12kg lime, 16kg Compound D, 16kg Ammonium Nitrate, and insecticide for pests.)

Social protection assistance

People in Bindura received a wider range of social protection assistance than at the other study sites, though it was targeted mainly at older people, and disbursement of the support package was reported to be ‘inconsistent’, with frequent delays.  

Yes, currently my old parents are receiving …. assistance from the government through the Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare in the form of food stuffs: 20kg maize, 2 litres cooking oil, 2kg sugar, and a sum of $5 per month.” (Very poor wellbeing category, Bindura).

Older people also receive free medication from government hospitals and are exempted from user fees.

Children from poor very families may qualify for the government’s BEAM programme (Basic Education Assistance Module) which gives recipients school fee exemptions and free school meals. Branson is now 18. When he first began secondary school, he was enrolled in because the School Development Committee identified his parents as not being formally employed and struggling to pay school fees.

“During this time when schools are open, we get free porridge in the morning at our school and sadza and beans on Monday, Wednesday and Fridays and it is available to every learner.” (Poor well-being group, Bindura).

Assistance from relatives and churches

In Tsholotsho, Chitungwiza and Bulawayo poor households did not report receiving any formal transfers, with the only support coming from remittances and some church support for older people. For example, an elderly widow in Chitungwiza receives no government transfers and instead relies on support from her Church, despite supporting six orphaned grandchildren. 

Pensions and medical insurance

Pensions coverage is very low in Zimbabwe, with only 2% of the population receiving a monthly pension or social protection transfers in 2019. While several older respondents in Bulawayo and Chitungwiza reported receiving occupational pensions, their value has been eroded by inflation, leaving the recipients struggling. Medical insurance coverage is also low, covering only 7% of the population, mostly employed by private enterprises in the non-financial sector or in central government.


Methodology

CPAN country bulletins are compiled using a combination of original qualitative data collected from a small number of affected people in each country, interviews with local leaders and community development actors, and secondary data from a range of available published sources. Interviews were conducted with 40 households for this bulletin, across four study sites (Bindura Rural District in Mashonaland Central Province; Tsholotsho District in Matabeleland North Province; Nketa suburb of Bulawayo; and Chitungwiza, Harare Metropolitan Province), in March 2022, in addition to local key informant interviews.

More details on the sampling and methodology for this bulletin can be found here.


This bulletin was created in collaboration with the University of Zimbabwe and made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.  

 
Source: https://flickr.com/photos/ilopictures/4986...

Zambia COVID-19 Poverty Monitor: March 2022

How is COVID-19 impacting people living in, or at risk of, poverty in Zambia? What policies are needed to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on chronic poverty? CPAN’s COVID-19 Poverty Monitor is an ongoing research project that interviews people about their experiences of the pandemic. This is the first bulletin focused on Zambia - to find out more about the project, visit our blog about the global project. This bulletin dives into the main economic, health, food security and other concerns of those interviewed, as well as policies to minimise the impacts of COVID-19 suggested by the respondents.

Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

There was an increase in the number of households reporting improvement in wellbeing (WB) in November 2021 since the last interview round in June 2021 (from four to 13 households). Reported improvements in wellbeing were largely attributed to the reduced cost of doing business following the appreciation of the local currency, increased social cohesion due to a decline in COVID-19 related stigma, extension of free education to grade 12, public health insurance, and adoption of new livelihoods.

Areas of concern identified as needing attention to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 included support for business financing, jobs, livelihoods, school bursary, agriculture and health financing. There were high expectations that the new government would address the identified concerns in the short to medium term. However, all participants anticipated an increase in the cost of living due to the rise in fuel prices in December 2021.

Timeline of wellbeing for people living in poverty in Zambia during Covid-19 Pandemic

Partial recovery: Half (13) of participating households reported partial economic recovery, about a quarter reported continued decline (7) and the rest reported no change in wellbeing (6). Some respondents that reported lost livelihoods in the previous bulletins report having new livelihood sources while others report adopting more than one livelihood (see below). Some micro and small entrepreneurs report being able to buy more goods for resale due to the appreciation of the local currency. Respondents reported a slight decline in the cost of living, which is confirmed by a recent report from the Jesuit Centre for Theological Reflection (JCTR) showing a marginal decline in the cost of the basic needs and nutrition basket for a family of five in Lusaka from Kwacha (K)8,644.50 ($478.11)3 in March 2021 to K8,359.80 ($462.34) in December 2021 (all conversions as of 7 March 2022 from www.xe.com). The decline is attributed to the appreciation of the local currency against major currencies; US$1 was selling at about  K23 during the first round of interviews and is now selling at K17 (19/01/2022). Annual inflation for December 2021 decreased to 16.4% from 22.8% recorded in March 2021. Prices of goods and services therefore increased by 16.4% on average between December 2020 and December 2021.

Diversification of livelihoods: Some households attributed their improved wellbeing to the adoption of diverse ways of raising incomes including micro-businesses, gardening, farming day labour and other activities.

“My wellbeing has improved. Last time you came, I only had one business but now I have two businesses. I sell charcoal and beer commonly known as Kachasu. The economy is doing fine; the charcoal is less expensive, and I have more customers because of load shedding. Electricity goes from morning till midnight sometimes and people have no option but to buy charcoal.” Female urban participant

I have different types of livelihoods like a grocery business, farming (crops and livestock), real estate (five flats), butchery, community savings, and I am also running a depot for chicken. Having multiple sources of income has really helped improve my wellbeing.” Male urban participant

Reduced cost of doing business: Most households involved in trading attributed their improved wellbeing to reduced costs of doing business with the improvement of the local currency. This has enabled the traders to buy more stock with less money.

“My grocery business is doing well. I am now able to buy more stock because the dollar has gone down. Last time you came, K5,000 ($276.81) worth of stock was way little compared to now. The dollar was then selling at about K22, but it is now selling at K16.” Male urban participant

“The dollar is doing fine now. When we go for orders, it makes sense because we are able to order more with less money as compared to before.” Male urban participant.

Improved sales: Some respondents engaged in trading goods further attributed their improved wellbeing to improvement in their daily sales

“My wellbeing has improved because my tenants are able to pay rentals and my business is booming every day.” Male urban participant

“Last time we spoke I used to get K6,500 ($359.70) monthly from both my grocery and my rentals, now I am getting close to K10,000 ($553.39) per month because my sales have increased… the change is due to the new government, our economy is doing fine after so many years of suffering.” Male urban participant

Reduced cost of basic commodities: Most of the participants reported a decline in expenditure due to a reduction in prices of basic commodities.

“The prices at which most goods are being sold now is better and it is slowly becoming bearable, and this is making it easy for us to meet our daily basic needs. Things are now cheap and this has been the major contribution to the changes we are undergoing… farming inputs have also become affordable and this is helping us as farmers.” Male rural participant

Despite the reported improvements, most households are yet to regain pre-pandemic levels of income and wellbeing. Participants also reported a loss of income from businesses, lack of employment and limited access to start-up capital. The sustainability of the reported gains is also not guaranteed due to the possible business disruptions from further Covid-19 restrictions.

Loss of income: Zambia introduced heightened public health measures against Covid-19 again on 28November 2021. Operation of bars, taverns, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas and stadia were limited to between 6–8pm, four times a week. These closures led to partial losses of income. Cross-border trade was affected due to the introduction of mandatory testing and 10-day quarantine for all those coming from high-risk countries. Power load shedding also largely contributed to a loss of income for businesses without backup power.

“There has been loss of income, especially from the grocery store. We used to order our merchandise cheaply from Malawi, but we can’t freely cross the border now due to Covid-19 restrictions…My bar business is also affected. I’m only allowed to operate about three days for a limited number of hours which has led to loss of income.” Male rural participant

Limited employment: Participants reported continued limited employment. Some people who had lost employment during the first bulletin in April 2021 are still unable to find employment. People are, however, optimistic that the new government will provide jobs.

Limited access to business financing: Most participants reported that they have no access to financing for start-up businesses because most micro-finance institutions go for salaried employees. The participants reported that lack of access to finance limits their ability to start and sustain new livelihoods.

“Our wellbeing is very bad and this situation we are in is due to a lack of capital. I would like to do business, but I do not have capital. Banks and other lending institutions only lend to those who are working. Kaloba (informal credit offered by moneylenders) is available, but the problem is that they want collateral that we do not have, and they charge very high-interest rates which are not good for a start-up business.” Urban female participant

Case study of Elias

“There has been a decline in my wellbeing… Right now, nothing is making sense for me. My barbershop business is almost collapsing, power goes from morning till evening, sometimes from morning till 4pm and that’s when I open the shop. When you open customers don’t come. My rentals for the shop are due and I am four months behind… It is a struggle for me to eat…I wait for a good Samaritan to give me something. For example, I drink beer and my friends call me to go and drink with them. I will escort them and tell them to give me the money for my beer and buy food. My friend will give me a K5 then I will buy K2 buns, K2 sugar, and I will save K1 for the next day. That’s how I survive.”

Table 1: Change in wellbeing of participants between rounds 1 and 2 of interviews

Partial recovery: All respondents acknowledged a reduced impact of COVID-19 on education since the last bulletin (August 2021). Physical classes were maintained since the last bulletin although most participants confirmed that pupils were behind due to previous closures.

Extension of free education to high school and pre-school: The new government extended free education from primary school (grade 1 to 7) to high school (grade 8 to 12) and pre-school in all public schools. This provided an opportunity for those who had dropped out of school due to financial challenges to re-enrol.

Limited capacity/infrastructure for virtual learning: The government called for colleges and universities to increase provision of online lessons following the outbreak of the Omicron variant. Virtual learning is however less accessible for learners in remote and rural areas with limited connectivity. Public schools are also ill-equipped to effectively apply virtual learning modalities due to limited virtual learning infrastructure owing to limited resources.

“Online learning is a good approach in the era of COVID-19, but the challenge is that learners, especially those in remote rural areas are faced with poor internet connections and limited access to digital devices.” KII participant

Extension of school holiday: The government postponed the reopening of primary and secondary schools by two weeks (from 10–24 January 2022) due to a surge in COVID-19 cases following the emergence of the Omicron variant of Covid-19. The holiday extension was also meant to allow for more school-going children to get vaccinated.

Case study of Hope

Hope is a 17-year-old girl who dropped out of school in 2021 due to lack of financial support. Her parents divorced and she lives with her grandmother. Her parents are unable to sponsor her school fees and her grandmother failed to take her back to school after the initial COVID-19 partial lockdown. Hope unsuccessfully tried to raise school fees by selling cooked chicken pieces. She couldn’t save from her sales because most of the income was being used for subsistence at home. Hope has now re-enrolled in school because the government has extended free education to public secondary schools.

Access to health services: COVID-19 constrained the health system and led to limited access and utilisation of other health services. Some participants reported that the promotion of home-based management of non-critical cases COVID-19 has considerably relieved the health system although there is concern that this may be contributing to fatalities from COVID-19.

The increase in home-based management of mild to moderate cases of COVID- 19 appear to have greatly relieved the health system and shifted resources to other health needs that had previously been neglected due to focus of resources on COVID-19. However, this may have contributed to [fatalities from] COVID-19.” KII participant

Covid-19 vaccination: There are still mixed feelings regarding the COVID-19 vaccine through the national turn-out for vaccination has improved from the last round of interviews from about 1% to about 8.5% (9 August 2021 to 17 January 2022). The government has also extended coverage of COVID-19 vaccinations to children aged 12 years and above. 

“I will not be going for COVID-19 vaccinations because I prefer natural remedies. I take them and they are working well for me, but I can advise the people to take the vaccine because the Ministry of Health is saying it is good for everyone including children.” Male urban participant

Poor health is a major driver of descents into poverty because it reduces productivity and draws on limited income and/or savings. This was reaffirmed by a key informant in the context of COVID-19 in Zambia:

“Poor health pushes people and households into poverty by reducing household income through high medical expenses and, for those in the informal economy whose incomes depend on labour supply, by reducing household income from work. This exposes individuals and households to a dual challenge that leads to heightened poverty.” KII participant

National Health Insurance: Zambia has an inclusive National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) in place which covers all people regardless of socio-economic status. The scheme provides for free access to health services for all Social Cash Transfer (SCT) beneficiaries, retirees, elderly (above 65 years), and people with disabilities. The scheme is however faced with financing challenges owing to the low proportion of beneficiaries who contribute and the low size of the premium each person contributes.

“The NHIS is a means of harmonising funding into the health system by having premiums collected based on ability to pay from all eligible citizens and legal residents, with exemptions and subsidies for the vulnerable, older people [above 65 years], and the mentally and [people with mental and physical disabilities].” KII participant

Social cohesion: The outbreak of COVID-19 led to a decline in social cohesion. Many participants now report increased social cohesion which has in turn improved informal support networks. The participants further report that the improvement in the informal support system has contributed to improvement in people’s psychosocial and economic wellbeing.

Stigmatisation: Patients and survivors of COVID-19 continue to face stigma and discrimination. Stigma has the potential to undermine social cohesion and prompt social isolation of groups. The social isolation or rejection that comes with stigma has the potential to negatively impact their psychological, economic and social wellbeing. COVID-19 related stigma is hence associated with a descent into poverty.

“I tested positive for COVID-19 in September 2021 and luckily, I was able to fully recover after two weeks of hospitalisation. The community stopped buying groceries from my makeshift shop because they were scared of contracting the virus. Even my close friends stopped interacting with me long after I got well. That is how my business went down and eventually collapsed.” Male urban participant.

“I had COVID-19 a month ago (October 2021). It was not serious but when people learnt about this, they stopped visiting me or greeting me on the road. This has really affected my wellbeing because I totally depend on support from the community and now the people that usually help me are avoiding me.” Female urban participant

Delay in delivery of farm inputs: Rural households that rely on fertiliser and inputs. Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) reports continued delay in government disbursement of fertiliser and other farm inputs. Some farmers report not receiving the inputs by the onset of the rain/wet season, making it likely that these delays will affect crop yields.

Climate change: The 2021/2022 farming season has been characterised by delays in the onset of rains, prolonged dry spells after the onset of rains as well as flash floods due to above-normal rains. Most farmers that planted during the first rains lost their crops due to the dry spells that followed while others lost their crops to flash floods. The government and its partners, through the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU), have been providing relief in form of input replacement and shelter in affected areas.

“There is a disaster of the loss of crops for the farmers who planted during the first rains (Mid-November 2021) due to prolonged dry spells being experienced, people are having to replant. Peasant farmers are most affected. DMMU is working on facilitating their access to early maturing seed.” KII participant

Fall armyworms: Zambia announced the outbreak of fall armyworms on 6 January 2022, after interviews were conducted. The country has experienced outbreaks of fall armyworms in seven of the last 10 agricultural seasons. These migratory armyworms are a great threat to the country’s food security. The government has strengthened surveillance and other control measures to contain the infestation of migratory pests.


 Coping Strategies

  •  Government support in form of social cash transfer, health insurance, subsidised farm inputs, free education and pensions.

  •  Engaging in new livelihood activities including casual labour, informal trade, gardening and farming.

  •  Social cohesion: Informal support networks including family, friends and well-wishers.

  •  Savings and borrowing: A few participants who are resilient report being able to save during good times and draw on savings or borrow during hard times.

  •  Limiting expenditure to essential commodities, buying essential commodities from cheaper sources and food rationing.

  •  Adherence to Covid-19 guidelines and vaccination is seen are seen as coping strategies because they help avoid bills that come with COVID-19.

  •  Prayer: Some report that they pray and wait for God to provide.


Policy Recommendations 

These were made by respondents:

  • There is a need for the government (through the new Ministry of Small and Medium Enterprises Development) to come up with a transparent and credible mechanism for supporting micro and small enterprises by providing financial, material and technical support as well as creating a conducive environment for these enterprises. 

  • There is a need to scale up sensitisation activities against the stigmatisation of patients and survivors of COVID-19.

  • There is a need for timely disbursement of grants for schools to ensure the success and sustainability of the increased scope of free education.

  • Decentralise the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU) to a level where each district can have a disaster preparedness plan that is unique, and tailor-made to its own context.

  • Strengthen the institutional framework and capacity of the government of Zambia in social health protection through the successful implementation of the National Health Insurance Scheme, thus strengthening the healthcare financing landscape in Zambia.

  • Accelerate the extension of national health insurance coverage to the informal economy which accounts for about 80% of the workforce.

  • Enactment of access to information legislation to allow for easy monitoring of government expenditure by civil society organisations and other stakeholders.


Programmes in place to mitigate impoverishment due to COVID-19

Public health insurance: The government provides contribution-based universal health insurance exempts the vulnerable from paying. Provision of free health services to the poor helps lessen the economic burden that comes with COVID-19.

Income: The government provides financial support to the vulnerable and non-viable people in society through the Social Cash Transfer (SCT) Scheme. Respondents reported receiving the SCT, and those who don’t are optimistic about receiving it in future.

Nutritional security: The government provides food security through FISP and Food Security Packs.

Emergency support: The government through DMMU provides relief to the poor in times of emergencies. DMMU further sensitises communities on emergency preparedness which enhances resilience in times of shocks. Flash floods and armyworms occurred after the household interviews had been completed, illustrating how ongoing emergencies are in Zambia.

Free education: The government is currently providing free education in all public day schools from nursery to secondary school. The government further provides bursaries for tertiary education in some public institutions of higher learning.


Methodology

CPAN country bulletins are compiled using a combination of original qualitative data collected from a small number of affected people in each country, interviews with local leaders and community development actors, and secondary data from a range of available published sources. Interviews were conducted with 26 households for this bulletin between November and December 2021. The households included six urban households from Lusaka, eight peri-urban households from Kabwe and twelve rural households. Five national-level key informant interviews were also conducted between December 2021 and January 2022.


Key external sources

To find out more about the impacts of COVID-19 on poverty in Nepal, please explore the following sources that were reviewed for this bulletin:


This project was made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.  

 

Zimbabwe COVID-19 Poverty Monitor: March 2022

How is COVID-19 impacting people living in, or at risk of, poverty in Zimbabwe? What policies are needed to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on chronic poverty? CPAN’s COVID-19 Poverty Monitor is an ongoing research project that interviews people about their experiences of the pandemic. This is the first bulletin focused on Zimbabwe - to find out more about the project, visit our blog about the global project. This bulletin dives into the main economic, health, food security and other concerns of those interviewed, as well as policies to minimise the impacts of COVID-19 suggested by the respondents.


Key Findings

  • Poverty: Extreme poverty increased from 30% in 2017 to an estimated 49% during the pandemic. (Estimation based on ZIMSTAT’s 2020. Rapid PICES Phone Survey of July 2020, cited in the World Bank (2021). Zimbabwe Economic Update. Overcoming Economic Challenges, Natural Disasters, and the Pandemic: Social and Economic Impacts. June 2021, Issue 3. The World Bank Group.)

  • Economic vulnerability: The groups at risk of impoverishment due to the COVID-19 pandemic are the chronically ill, women, school children, youth, farmers and semi-skilled workers (formal and informal sector).

  • Areas of concern for the poorest:

    • Economic: loss of remittances; price inflation for key goods and services; limited transport; constrained access to markets and widespread job losses.

    • Health: increased pressure on already stretched health systems, with restricted access to medical treatment during lockdowns.

    • Food insecurity: increased, with households reducing meals consumed, quantity and quality of food. 

    • Social: upswing in social harms, with increased drug abuse, early sex and teenage pregnancy, commercial sex work and gender-based violence.

  •  Zimbabweans face compound and sequenced shocks, with COVID-19 just one of many negative shocks and trends: People have endured the impacts of prolonged economic and policy shocks, compounded by the effects of climate shocks and harvest failures, price shocks and livestock diseases. This has led to previously resilient households becoming progressively more vulnerable as they move sequentially through preferred to less preferred to highly adverse coping strategies, which ‘mine’ human, social and productive capital, as households prioritise survival.

  • Adverse coping is widespread: These can have negative consequences for long term health and both social and economic recovery. Examples include engaging in commercial sex work (health impacts, impairs social capital), increased artisanal mining (drudgery intensive, physically dangerous), distress sales of livestock (loss of stores of value, status and ploughing pairs), increased criminal activity (theft, which impairs trust and social capital).

    The most widely adopted coping strategy was reported as reducing the number, size and quality of meals. Others included adopting barter trade, reducing cultivated area, distress sales of livestock, livelihood diversification, urban agriculture, sub-letting urban homes, and reverse migration from urban to rural areas.

  • Mitigation programmes:

    • Social protection: temporary food aid, social cash transfers. Low coverage during the pandemic – government support (15%) plus NGO support (7% of respondents in the ZIMSTAT Rapid PICES Monitoring Telephone Survey (4th Round) May 2021).

    • Economic: economic recovery and stimulus package, plus the pre-existing Government conservation farming programme, Pfumvudza/Intwasa, which distributed agricultural inputs to 51% of all households (of respondents in the ZIMSTAT Rapid PICES Monitoring Telephone Survey (4th Round) May 2021). 


Groups at risk of impoverishment due to COVID-19 pandemic

The pandemic was one amongst several negative shocks and trends. People who were previously resilient have been forced by a series of idiosyncratic (household-based) and covariant (society-wide) shocks (including economic, policy, climate change, harvest failure and livestock disease-related) to move through preferred to less preferred and then to adverse forms of coping to meet basic needs even minimally. They have become progressively more vulnerable as their asset base is eroded. Some groups have been at particular risk of impoverishment due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Chronically ill

  • Older people, people living with disabilities and chronically ill people are highly vulnerable to livelihood and wellbeing declines.

  • People on antiretroviral (ARV) treatment are worst affected as travel restrictions prevented travel to clinics, so some lost access to medication. However, in some cases, clinics organised local group deliveries, while other patients walked to clinics.

Women

  • Women relying on remittances: Migrants (usually husbands or partners) reduced or stopped sending remittances.

  • Female cross-borders traders: Border closures during 2020 and 2021 lockdowns stopped traders from accessing goods, destroying livelihoods.

School children

  • School and college closures, public examinations missed, few able to access online learning (internet data unaffordable, many did not own laptops or smartphones), private extra lessons too expensive for poor, and private colleges (offering catch up lessons) are also expensive.

  • Many school dropouts.

  • Back in school, children are often promoted to the next grade, without having knowledge gaps filled.

Youth

  • Enterprises owned by, or employing, youth (non-farm, artisans in services sector, semi-skilled workers) were seriously curtailed by lockdown measures.

Farmers

  • Some farmers have been driven into distress coping, experienced downward mobility and have, so far, completely failed to recover. They were not able to re-stock, unlike those farmers who did not have to sell their livestock.

  • Reduced market access due to lockdown, resulted in produce spoilage, loss of income.

  • Reduced agricultural extension support (government and NGOs).

  • Lack of veterinary services led to increased livestock deaths. Some farmers have failed to recover from livestock losses.

Semi-skilled workers (formal and informal sector)

  • Job losses due to COVID-19 lockdowns, included factory workers, informal traders, bus conductors, drivers and hairdressers.


Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

Loss of remittances, especially from South Africa, drove many households into destitution. This occurred in Tsholotsho District (Matabeleland North Province), for example, where the majority of households relied on remittances before the pandemic, with receipts funding food and education expenditures. Reduced remittance flows reduced household wellbeing and drive school dropouts.

According to the Rapid PICES Monitoring Telephone Survey (Rapid PICES) Round 4, May 2021, about 11% of households nationally received remittances from abroad at around the time of the survey. This is an increase from 9% from the third round, from 5 December 2020 to 10 March 2021 (ZIMSTAT (2021); Rapid PICES Monitoring Telephone Survey (4th Round) May 2021). Although the total percentage of people receiving remittances is not known, as often informal channels are used, a study in 2006 estimated that 50% of the Zimbabwean population received remittances.

Price inflation for key goods and services (including food and agricultural inputs, transport, school fees) have made life tough for many. In Bindura District, (Mashonaland Central Province), for example, between 2019 and 2021, inflation saw prices for groceries and other essential commodities rise by 200-300% and for transport by 100-150% (reported by the local traditional leader).

 “We used to pay $1 from Manhenga to Bindura town, but now we are paying $2 to $2.50.

Transport bans compounded price inflation, with scarcity driving up prices of essentials such as cooking oil and bread by over 60% and maize prices nearly doubling between 2019 and 2021. Illegal transport operators tried to get around the bans, but their fares were too expensive for ordinary Zimbabweans (reported by both female and male farmers in Bindura). Price increases caused tensions, with some respondents believing that retailers were taking advantage of the pandemic to increase their prices.

Farm input costs also doubled, and some farmers were driven to sell livestock to pay for the fertilisers and seed maize they needed to keep farming.

Constrained access to markets (including market closures due to COVID related public health measures) meant that perishable produce spoiled, leading to farmers losing income. With national and international supply chains disrupted, some local markets became flooded (e.g., maize, sweet potatoes and tomatoes) driving prices down significantly. 

Widespread job losses (formal and informal sectors) were driven by the lockdown measures. Many chronically poor people, across all the sites, both rural and urban, relied on casual labour for their livelihoods. However, due to the COVID lockdown restrictions, opportunities in the casual labour markets drastically decreased, often resulting in destitution.

Ngwabi (21-year-old from Tsholotsho, who looks after his three younger siblings while his parents were in South Africa) says that casual labour was a source of both food (cereal, cooking oil) and cash for the family. The casual labour activities they undertake include fencing of fields, digging farming holes, slaughtering cattle as well as in community construction projects, such as community infrastructure (e.g., boreholes and dip tanks). However, during 2020 and 2021, there was little demand for casual labour and Ngwabi lamented that:

“Reduced piece job opportunities meant less income for me.”

Some entrepreneurs saw their revenue shrink and some people lost lucrative jobs and had to replace them with lower waged work. For example, Noah (24-years-old, from Nketa, Bulawayo) is an orphan and is responsible for his six dependent siblings. He previously worked at a transport company and earned enough to comfortably cover his household’s expenses. He lost this job and now earns less through his new job, repairing tyres - not enough to cover his family’s needs. He is struggling to maintain household food security and has been forced to add additional strategies, including asking for tips or overcharging his customers, as well as reducing the number of meals to one a day, to ensure their survival. 

Cross-border traders were unable to access new stock (groceries from South Africa, rice and second-hand clothes from Mozambique), driving many informal traders and ‘tuck shop’ owners out of business.

Food insecurity increased, with households reducing the number of meals consumed as well as the quantity and quality of food. Diets tended to become less diverse and less nutritious. The Rapid PICES Round 1 survey revealed that 41% of the extreme poor went without eating for a whole day. Urban households who have seen a decline in their incomes have been particularly severely affected.

Bradley (42-years-old, married with three children and two adult dependents) from Bindura reported that he is living hand to mouth. In April 2020 he lost his job at a gold mine and is now doing subsistence farming on two hectares of land. However, he has limited farm equipment and inputs to make the land productive. He has been food insecure since April 2020 and he can hardly find enough money to put food on the table. Others indicated that they sold their small livestock (chickens, goats) to buy food for the household. These distress sales were driven by a collapse in incomes and an increase in costs. Increased food prices and school closures have meant that children are home all day, increasing household food costs, as well as adding to the care burden of the parents.

While COVID‑19 accelerated the use of digital platforms in delivering education, evidence from the Rapid PICES Monitoring Telephone Survey shows that only 25% of rural school-going children continued accessing education after the school closures of 2020, compared to 70% in urban areas.

Imagine how difficult it is to get income let alone getting enough to buy data bundles to allow the children to do online learning.” Widow, 81, wellbeing category 3, Chitungwiza

Teachers and private colleges provided private tutoring to those children who could afford to pay and who were approaching their public examinations (‘O' levels and A' levels). But the differences between those able to access online learning and tutoring has accentuated pre-existing inequalities.

The pandemic increased pressure on already stretched health systems. Essential services such as vaccinations, maternal and child health services were disrupted as the Government prioritised the COVID-19 response. Around one in four households (19%, rural; 23%, urban) were unable to access medical treatment when needed due to the lack of medical personnel, amongst other reasons (Rapid PICES Round 1 (July 2020)).

Curfews restricted opening times and travel restrictions limited access to health care. This caused a provision gap, with constraints in service provision occurring alongside an increased need for services as some Zimbabwean women and children began to engage in commercial sex work to survive, leading to health risks. However, the government sought to improve staff attendance at government health facilities by providing additional funds (disbursed by the Ministry of Health and Child Care) to motivate and help health front-line workers, including nurses and doctors.

Travel restrictions also led to some people living with HIV and AIDS, especially the elderly who could not walk to the clinics, or pay for illegal transport, losing access to medication:

"Yes, people have been impacted negatively by COVID-19, especially those on antiretroviral drugs (ARVs). They face challenges in accessing their drugs from the Manhenga district council clinic due to lockdown, social distancing and the ban on transport movement. So there have been so many people who defaulted on their daily ARV drugs and this is a health concern during the COVID-19 era." Health worker, Bindura

Relatively few people have been directly affected by Covid-19 in rural Zimbabwe. A small minority contracted COVID-19 and some others faced the grief of having close relatives die of it.  For example, Natalie lost her husband and two adult children to COVID-19, with the three dying within six months of each other (see Case study: Natalie).

The vaccination programme was country-wide, reaching even the remotes areas, targeting mainly those over 18 years (Zimbabwe’s population was relatively young, and children (defined as girls and boys under the age of 18 years) constituted 48.8% of the total population (ZIMSTAT, 2013, Zimbabwe National Census, 2012). During a focus group discussion with local authority officials in Bindura Rural District, they estimated that approximately 80% of the adult population in Bindura District had been vaccinated, and they indicated that the Ministry of Health and Child Care have a programme to mop up the remaining 20%. Generally, vaccine hesitancy was low, although there were isolated cases of ‘doubters’:

“I cannot be vaccinated personally even if the government is saying it is compulsory, this vaccination thing is an experiment and trial. They want to experiment on us.” Woman, 34, wellbeing category 4, Bindura

Some people who caught COVID-19, or who contracted serious influenza, reported using home cures and herbal remedies (Indigenous plants were widely used as herbal teas, e.g., moringa and zumbani (Lippia javanica), which is high in zinc and antioxidants), especially those from poor households who could not afford health care. Many feared being tested for COVID-19, because of the damage that a positive test result, and quarantining would do to their earning power. In addition, the hospitals were not prepared to handle the rapid increase of COVID-19 cases and resources were stretched very thin.

There has been an upswing in social harms during the pandemic, with increases in gender-based violence (GBV), drug abuse, early sex and teenage pregnancy and commercial sex work. Anecdotal reports indicate that crime rates have increased during the pandemic, particularly theft. Lockdown measures have been associated with severe psychological distress.

Gender-based violence (GBV) has increased, associated with families being in a confined space for long periods during lockdown (household food insecurity, increased unemployment and financial worries, compounded by male anger, anxiety and frustration and women’s diminished agency and means of escape). The rise in incidence appears to be particularly high in urban areas, where homesteads are small.  

School closures, lasting nearly two years, have had far-reaching negative impacts. Some children from richer families were able to access online learning or work with private tutors but children from poorer families were unable to access learning. Some children worked for their parents, helping them farm or in the family business. However, widespread ‘idleness’ amongst young people has been associated with an increase in early sex, leading to an increase in STIs and teenage pregnancies.

Drug use, especially amongst the youth, increased during the lockdown. The main drugs used by poor youth are marijuana (about 80% of drug users) and crystal meth (methamphetamine), with more affluent youth using cocaine and heroin. Some cough medicines are used as drugs, particularly by the extremely poor youth (e.g., BronCleer, manufactured in South Africa, and containing codeine and alcohol).  The government has created a Drug and Substance Abuse Technical Working Group led by the Ministry of Public Service, Labour and Social Welfare. This is an information-sharing platform between Government and relevant stakeholders and has been tasked with reducing the effects of substance abuse. It was established under the Government’s National Drug Master Plan for tackling youth substance abuse.

Crime rates have increased, particularly theft, with burglary increasing significantly in our four study sites (Bindura, Bulawayo, Chitungwiza and Tsholotsho), driven by increased youth unemployment, return migration from South Africa and poverty. This has occurred alongside an increase in customers for stolen goods.

Psycho-social impact of COVID-19 restrictions: Restrictions around social gatherings including funerals have meant that grieving families have been unable to seek comfort through social contact and traditional funeral rites. The inability of families to bury their dead, and particularly transporting the bodies of those who have died in urban areas to the person’s ‘rural home’ for burial, has caused great distress.


Government containment measures

Covid-19 lockdowns: The first COVID-19 lockdown in Zimbabwe was announced on 17 March 2020, when a national disaster was declared. The lockdown eased towards the end of the year, as new cases and deaths decreased. However, there was a spike in January 2021, probably due to opening the borders with South Africa, as well as an increase in social gatherings around the festive season. There was a second major lockdown from 5 January 2021 to 1 March 2021. By September 2021, infections had declined significantly and restrictions were relaxed to Level 2 in October 2021. The lockdown levels are Level 4, very high; Level 3, high; Level 2, moderate; and Level 1, low. Throughout the COVID period, Zimbabwe had two main Levels of lockdown restrictions, namely Level 4, the most severe and Level 2, which was more relaxed. Lockdown restrictions were eased, with the ban on intercity travel removed, business hours extended from 8 pm-7 am and a shorter curfew, from 10 pm-5 am. Public gatherings of up to 100 people and international travel were allowed.

Then, with the emergence of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 in December 2021, the Government imposed another strict (Level 4) lockdown to cope with the rapid increase in infections. This meant that businesses could only operate between 8 am-3.30 pm, the curfew was extended from 6.30 pm-6.30 am and limits were imposed on public gatherings, with a maximum of 30 people at a funeral. This was initially imposed for two weeks, then extended. However, by February 2022, cases had greatly declined and the lockdown was eased back to Level 2.

The lockdowns included:

  • A nationwide curfew;

  • A stay-at-home order with exemptions for those working in essential services;

  • All formal enterprises and registered informal enterprises ordered to cease operations; 

  • Inter-city travel banned;

  • Closure of borders and non-essential businesses;

  • Gatherings except for funerals were banned;

  • Schools closed, except for some examination classes.

In addition, there were preventative public health measures, which included requirements that the public wore facemasks correctly and complied with social distancing, hand sanitisation and temperature checks (Government of Zimbabwe (2021)). These preventative health measures were required for all lockdown levels.

Quarantine centres for international returnees were established by the Ministry of Public Service, Labour and Social Welfare in some Provinces, particularly those with borders, such as Matabeleland South. Several were established in Harare and Bulawayo and used schools and colleges facilities.

School closures: By mid-March 2020, there were many reported cases of COVID-19 in schools, and some individual schools closed. On 24 March 2020, Government announced a nationwide closure of schools and tertiary institutions, to contain the spread of COVID-19.  Schools remained closed until September 2021 and by December 2021, another strict lockdown was in place. Schools remained closed in January 2022, with exemptions for examination classes. By February 2022, the Omicron threat had subsided, and schools reopened on 8 February 2022. Approximately, 4.6 million children have been affected by the COVID-19 closure of schools in Zimbabwe. (21 February 2021. Chipenda, C., and Tom, T., (2021) Zimbabwe’s Social Policy Response to Covid-19: Temporary Food Relief and Cash Transfers; Global Dynamics of Social Policy. CRC 1342 COVID-19 Social Policy Response Series No. 23. Bremen: University of Bremen).

Vaccination: The national COVID-19 vaccination programme launched in February 2021 (organised by the Ministry of Health and Child Care), using the Sinopharm BIBP vaccine (Sinovac and Sputnik V were also used). Vaccinations were made compulsory for State employees to reduce the risk of spreading COVID-19 to others. Those who were unwilling to be vaccinated, due to religious reasons or vaccine hesitancy, had to resign.

Livelihood groups particularly affected by travel restrictions: Farmers and traders.  Venders indicated that they had experienced police harassment.

Penalties: People could be fined by local traditional leaders and arrested and fined heavily by the Zimbabwe Republic Police. At the district and national level, the fines for offenders were reportedly ZWL 500 ($1.38) (all currency conversion as of 26 February 2022 using xe.com) to ZWL 10,000 ($27.63), depending on the offence. Those caught without wearing masks in a rural village could be fined a goat or a bucket of maize. (KII, traditional leader, Bindura).

Compliance: Compliance with the containment measures was high, with people generally appreciating that this was the only way that the pandemic could be managed, and lives saved. This was supported by clear and educational health promotional campaigns, delivered through television, radio and poster campaigns. 

Impact: The government’s strict travel restrictions and curfews had widely reported impacts. Travel restrictions made buying groceries, visiting relatives, or seeking medical treatment difficult, with negative consequences for older people, the sick, vendors, farmers and anyone who needed to access medication, and although district health workers facilitated access to ARVs and other essential medicines, access was patchy.

“The area has experienced strict lockdown measures [affecting] churches, schools, swimming pools and bottle stores. We all try to follow rules. Security guards always made sure that masks were worn properly covering both nose and mouth. Those not adhering to the rules were taken to the police station and made to pay a fine. During the first lockdown days, people used to be taken to the police camp and kept at the police station the whole afternoon and only released at the end of the day and still pay a fine.” Local businesswoman, Nketa, Bulawayo

“During the first lockdown people were not allowed in town at all for the first 21 days. If police officers saw you 5km or more away from your house you were made to pay a fine.” Pastor’s wife, Nketa, Bulawayo


Coping strategies

Diverse coping strategies were adopted, with a reduction in meals cited most frequently (the remaining coping strategies are not in rank order). But as households progressed from preferred forms of coping to adverse coping, social harms increased and the long-term damage to their ability to move back out of poverty intensified.

Reduced meals and less nutritious food: Reducing the number of meals per day was identified by almost all respondents as a key coping strategy (across four districts – rural and urban – and across all well-being categories) in response to the economic crisis induced by lockdown measures. This saw the number of meals reduced from three to two or even one meal a day. Crisis induced food insecurity was so acute for some that everyone in the household would go the whole day without eating and some urban households sought to reduce the number of mouths to feed by sending their children to their ‘rural home’, where they were looked after by grandparents or extended family members.

“I [reduced] the number of meals per day from the three, to two or even one per day when things are very difficult.” Woman, 28, wellbeing category 2, Chitungwiza

“Loss of revenue and reduced meals per day is a major challenge, my family used to have several meals per day without any limits and now I feel like it’s not fair to my wife and kids, I feel like am no longer a man enough for my family.” Male, 50, wellbeing category 3, Bindura

Some households had a less severe response by shifting to consuming ‘inferior foods’ - eating cheaper, less preferred, less nutritious foodstuffs, such as ‘muputi’ (roasted maize kernels).

Barter trade: Barter trade has increased in urban and rural Zimbabwe, and in some areas, such as Bindura (Mashonaland Central Province) and Tsholotsho (Matabeleland North Province), it was reported that cash was rarely seen. Services by artisans, such as builders, as well as casual labourers, were often paid in kind. Payment in kind is quite acceptable and the goods appreciated, especially in the hyperinflationary environment, and where banks restrict cash withdrawals, and in addition, mobile money has various taxes and conditions imposed.

Some mining families ventured into barter trade. The grocery shop owners would come to the villages with essential commodities and exchange foodstuffs like cooking oil and mealie meal with some grams of gold. This helped most families in coping with the shock.” Traditional leader, Bindura

Reduced area of cultivation: Some farmers reduced the proportion of their land that they farmed, as they could not afford to buy inputs or to pay for ploughing, leading to lower production levels. More farmers needed to buy in ploughing services in 2021 as their draught power was limited by livestock deaths from disease (widespread theileriosis or January disease and blackleg). However, ploughing services were limited and not readily available at the times required for ploughing (AGRITEX (agricultural extension) broadcasts to farmers in each locality, the optimum times for ploughing, depending on the rainfall pattern for that specific year. Usually, this period for ploughing is quite narrow.)

Livestock sales: Distress sales of small livestock (chickens, goats, pigs) became widespread in order to meet contingencies such as buying food and agricultural inputs and paying for children’s school fees and other education expenses.

Livelihood diversification: Livelihood diversification was adopted as a coping strategy by approximately half of the farmers in our study who, for instance, moved into value addition (vegetable drying, tomato preservation). Some rural people harvested thatch grass for sale. Others collected seeds and developed seed banks for themselves and for sale. Some sought casual work. Those with pre-existing horticultural enterprises increased their output, particularly those near a ready market, for example, artisanal mines. Some began brewing beer or selling cigarettes, and others moved into selling marijuana. The number of women, youth and children engaging in commercial sex work also increased, as households sought to cope with job losses and the loss of remittances as a result of the pandemic.

Expenditure prioritisation: Some poor urban households made tough choices around which expenditures to prioritise and stopped paying their rent and utility bills. This meant that they fell into arrears, leading to tension with landlords and the accumulation of debt.

Urban agriculture: Many urban households (for example in Bulawayo) sought to become self-sufficient and began to cultivate vacant plots, green belts and wetland areas in order to produce their own food and rear chickens.

Subletting of urban homes: Subletting was a common livelihood strategy before the pandemic for some non-poor households in Bulawayo and Chitungwiza. However, the proportion of non-poor households subletting increased during the Covid-19 pandemic, as other income streams failed. This included letting rooms in their houses and building backyard shacks to rent out.

Reverse migration: Reverse migration has become common, with urban households sending children or other family members to their ‘rural home’. Sometimes the whole household relocates, to benefit from the lower cost of living and greater opportunities for self-sufficiency through food cultivation.

Community initiatives: Rural chiefs assisted poor and food-insecure families through the Zunde raMambo royal court food initiative. This was to supplement government relief, which was not always adequate. For example, a local Chief in Bindura mentioned that in 2020, the COVID-19 food relief funds from the government were insufficient for all the hungry families in his domain, so his royal court provided extra grain, through the Zunde raMambo initiative.


Programmes in place to mitigate impoverishment due to COVID-19

Almost no assistance from the Government or international organisations was reported. The exception was the Government’s Pfumvudza/Intwasa conservation farming programme, which distributed agricultural inputs to 1.8 million smallholder farmers (the Input Package for a Pfumvudza/Intwasa Plot was distributed through the Presidential Inputs Programme and consisted of 2kgs seed, 12kg lime, 16kg Compound D, 16kg Ammonium Nitrate, and insecticide for pests). Fifty-one percent of all households (predominantly rural and peri-urban, although the programme can also be carried out in urban areas where space allows) have participated in the Pfumvudza programme (Findings from the 4th Round of the Rapid PICES Monitoring Telephone Survey). Of these, 84% had received extension services and training and 80% reported higher yields (ZIMSTAT (2021). Rapid PICES Monitoring Telephone Survey (4th Round) May 2021).

Social protection coverage in Zimbabwe was poor before the pandemic. It remained relatively low, with only 15% of respondents receiving government support and 7% support from a non-governmental organisation (ZIMSTAT (2021). Rapid PICES Monitoring Telephone Survey (4th Round) May 2021). This is despite severe poverty levels increasing to an estimated 49% and food insecurity increasing to around 70% (World Bank (2021). Zimbabwe Economic Update. Overcoming Economic Challenges, Natural Disasters, and the Pandemic: Social and Economic Impacts. June 2021, Issue 3. The World Bank Group). None of the participants in Poverty Monitoring Initiative mentioned receiving any social protection support, although a few of those in the destitute wellbeing category mentioned that they used to get assistance from the Department of Social Welfare, but had not received anything for the past couple of years. Several participants, in the very poor category, mentioned that some of their orphaned grandchildren received assistance under Basic Education Assistance Module (BEAM).

Pre-existing support to poor and vulnerable people

  • Support to agriculture: The Government’s Pfumvudza conservation farming inputs programme, 2020 to 2021, was cited by the majority of respondents for this study as their sole form of external support.

  • Free health care: at government clinics and hospitals.

  • Free education: Basic Education Assistance Module (BEAM) provides a school fee waiver to children identified as poor or vulnerable.

  • Food security: World Food Programme drought relief programme to vulnerable households.

  • Civil society support: Most churches assist, especially the elderly and destitute. This ad hoc assistance commonly distributes food hampers. In Bindura, the Muslim community mosque stepped in and provided low income households with food hampers.

COVID-19 response

  • Temporary food relief: Ongoing food aid distribution was scaled up during the pandemic. Distribution of food aid was constrained and the proportion of households receiving food dropped from 23% in July 2020 to 3% in August-September 2020. In urban areas, only 1% received food aid, or cash transfers to buy food, during this period, thus leaving many families food insecure (World Bank (2021). Zimbabwe Economic Update. Overcoming Economic Challenges, Natural Disasters, and the Pandemic: Social and Economic Impacts. June 2021, Issue 3. The World Bank Group).  

  • Social cash transfers: Cash transfers were central in Zimbabwe’s COVID-19 social protection response and by 13 October 2020, the government had provided cash transfers to 202,077 beneficiaries (Zimbabwe’s cash transfer programme was allocated ZWD 2.4 billion ($6.6 million) by the national stimulus package), throughout the country. However, there was a strong urban bias, with Harare (45%) and Bulawayo (15%) having the highest proportion of beneficiaries. Targeting sought to identify the most vulnerable and was based on the Ministry of Public Service, Labour and Social Welfare’s databases supplemented by means-testing with lists from the Ministry of Women Affairs, local authorities and informal traders used to identify new beneficiaries.

    Challenges centre around coverage and transfer size. Transfers rose from ZWD 180 ($0.49) to ZWD 300 ($0.82), but this was widely considered inadequate, remaining substantially below the Consumer Council’s reported monthly family basket of ZWD 14,438 ($39.89). In terms of coverage, the proportion of households receiving Covid-19 cash transfers declined from 4% in Round 3 of the Rapid PICES to 1% in Round 4 (ZIMSTAT (2021). Rapid PICES Monitoring Telephone Survey (4th Round) May 2021). This decline was true of both urban and rural areas. Though the reason for the decline remains unclear.

  • Economic stimulus: In May 2020, the government unveiled a ZWD 18.2 billion ($50.3 million) Covid-19 Economic Recovery and Stimulus Package, valued at 9% of GDP. The aim of the package was twofold. Firstly, it sought to improve the country’s economic performance and ensure recovery from COVID-19-induced shocks. Secondly, it sought to provide relief to individuals, families and businesses affected by COVID-19. It aimed to reach one million households with relief, including food-deficit mitigation, cash transfers, facilitating and financing healthcare interventions, packages to trigger social welfare, pension support, provision of cushioning allowances, and funding state institutions for Covid-19 research and manufacturing of personal protective equipment. The Government provided ZWD 739 million ($2 million) of the Economic Recovery and Stimulus Package to the Ministry of Health and Child Care to fund various interventions, such as a hiring additional 4,000 health personnel; upgrading of and appropriately equipping all central, provincial and district hospitals and other facilities to accommodate COVID-19 patients; and provision of a tax-free allowance for frontline health workers.

    None of the respondents in the Poverty Monitoring Initiative indicated that they had heard of, or received, any benefits under the COVID-19 Economic Recovery and Stimulus Package.

  •  Education programmes: Access to online learning was provided during the 2021 lockdown through the UNICEF, Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education and Microsoft’s ‘Learning Passport in Programme’. This digital platform gave teachers and pupils free online access to learning materials, although children’s access was limited by the costs of buying data bundles for internet connectivity and only 4% used mobile learning applications, 2% of children were found to have listened to educational radio programs, 1% watched educational television programmes (Rapid PICES Monitoring Telephone Survey Round 4).

Case studies

Case Study: Natalie

Natalie, a 58-year-old widow living in Nketa high-density suburb in Bulawayo, has been devastated by the pandemic. She lost her husband and two adult children (36-year-old daughter and 29-year-old son) to COVID-19, dying within six months of each other. They were the household’s breadwinners, so her income has collapsed at the same time as her outgoings increased, as she is now responsible for looking after her three orphaned grandchildren.

When her husband and children fell ill, she asked relatives for money to enable them to access medical treatment. Although one child had Medical Aid insurance, it did not cover all the costs and Natalie was also forced to sell assets, including the family car.

Losing her loved ones has been the greatest challenge that Natalie has ever experienced, and she is now lonely, poor and faces the burden of taking care of her grandchildren.

Case study: Thomas

Thomas (now 21 and single) and his three younger siblings (Rachel, 16, Maria, 14, and Joseph, 12) live in a dilapidated homestead in rural Tsholotsho. It is in serious need of repair, with cracked walls and loose thatch on the roof. They are poor and own only one acre of land, five goats, a radio and a small solar panel.

Five years ago, Thomas became his siblings’ guardian when his parents moved to Johannesburg to work as domestic workers. For some time, they sent regular remittances in the form of both money and groceries. Sadly, the remittances have dwindled to almost nothing. Life has been tough for the parents since the start of the pandemic, so much so that they wanted to return to Zimbabwe, but they are stuck as they could not afford to relocate their accumulated assets, including furniture.

Thomas reported that his siblings had had to drop out of school, as they could not afford school fees. They had started helping him with household chores and with cultivating their land. They were not able to return to school when they reopened, largely because the family could not pay the arrears in school fees. 

Previously, Thomas and Rachel found casual work around the community, fencing fields, digging holes for planting, slaughtering cattle and on community construction projects, (e.g., digging boreholes and dip tanks). This work provided them with enough income to survive, buying food, enabling them to pay to grind their maize, buy soap and pay for sanitary wear. Unfortunately, casual work opportunities have reduced drastically during the pandemic, leaving the household with very little money. The price of basic goods and services have increased at the same time.

Their farming is rain-fed and prone to waterlogging but they manage to cultivate some pearl millet and sorghum. Although they do not have cattle (and so no draught power), they do have five milking goats. They use soured goat’s milk to make a ricotta-like soft cheese, which they eat with sadza (maize porridge). They also collect thatching grass to sell. Thomas also owns a large number of pigeons, which he uses as a source of protein for the family as well as selling ‘start-up’ birds to neighbours. Rachel earns some income from commercial sex work. She visits a local bar and sometimes comes back late at night with gifts.

The family have had minimal NGO/Government support, and Thomas believes that support is often concentrated on older people, although he comments that some youths are equally vulnerable.

Methodology

This Zimbabwe COVID-19 Poverty Monitor Bulletin is informed by qualitative data collected by the Poverty Monitoring Initiative and the University of Zimbabwe. The interviews for this bulletin took place in November 2021, in four districts (two rural and two urban): namely Bindura Rural District in Mashonaland Central Province; Tsholotsho District in Matabeleland North Province; Nketa suburb of Bulawayo; and Chitungwiza, Harare Metropolitan Province. Ten in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted in each study site (40 in total) in addition to approximately 20 local key informant interviews.

These data are drawn from the first round of a panel study, with the second round being collected in March 2022. More details on the sampling and methodology for this bulletin can be found here.


This bulletin was created in collaboration with the University of Zimbabwe and made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.  

 
Source: https://flickr.com/photos/ilopictures/4986...

Afghanistan Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: March 2022

How is Covid-19 impacting people living in, or at risk of, poverty in Afghanistan? What policies are needed to mitigate the impact of Covid-19 on chronic poverty? CPAN’s Covid-19 Poverty Monitor is an ongoing research project that interviews people about their experiences of the pandemic. This is the first bulletin focused on Afghanistan - to find out more about the project, visit our blog about the global project. This bulletin dives into the main economic, health, food security and other concerns of those interviewed, as well as policies to minimise the impacts of Covid-19 suggested by the respondents.

Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

The poverty rate rose from 43.7% in Autumn 2019 to 51% in Spring 2020 (NSIA, (2021) Income, Expenditure, and Labour Force Survey (IE&LFS) 2019/20). The poverty rate was expected to increase further during 2020, and the latest estimates from UNDP moreover suggest that as much as 97% of the population could be living in poverty by the middle of 2022.

The increase in poverty also is mirrored by large self-reported income losses by the Afghan population. For example, before the pandemic between October 2019 to March 2020, quantitative analysis of survey data indicates that 61-62% of the population recorded their economic situation as being worse off compared to a year before the survey. However, from April to June 2020, 76% of the population recorded their economic situation being worse off, increasing to 81% of the population from July to September 2020 (Diwakar, 2022, forthcoming, based on analysis of IE&LFS data).

Market closures and disruptions to transportation due to Covid-19 have resulted in a loss of income for farmers, small businesses, salaried workers and casual day labourers. Respondents attributed these income losses to disruptions earlier in the pandemic caused by lockdowns and since then a reduction in demand for goods and services due to widespread economic downturn. Respondents noted a lack of demand for goods due to disrupted export markets, higher costs of doing business such as the cost of building materials, and reduced demand for day labour. Salaried workers in education and manufacturing also reported losing their jobs during past lockdowns. 

There is no demand for grapes in the market. Traders cannot export grapes to India and Pakistan. When the market was good, one Mun (equal to 4kg in Herat province) of raisins was more than 500 Afghan Afghani (AFN) ($5.44) (All currency converted into USD$ with www.xe.com on 18 February 2022). That made a decent amount of money for us. But we did not make it now - the price has decreased to 250 AFN ($2.72).” Male respondent, 30, Rural Pashtun Zarghun, Herat 

When we collected our harvest products and took them to the market there were no buyers. Because of quarantine which happened twice last year [2020] and once this year [2021] we could not sell our yields... It has a financial effect on our livelihood.” Male respondent, 65, Injil, Herat

Our family and neighbours who worked in manufacturing companies have lost their jobs because the factories were shut down due to the Corona. While I am jobless, my son is also becoming an extra burden by losing his job.” Male respondent, 53, Injil, Herat

I lost my job and salary. I was contracted to be a schoolteacher. I don’t get a salary anymore since schools are off due to Corona.” Female respondent, 28, Pashtun Zarghun

“[Labour] activities are mostly stopped. The materials and goods [for labour activities] became expensive because the borders are closed. Work in the construction sites has stopped. The builder cannot hire daily wage labour for his work, as a result, daily wages have decreased.” Male respondent, 65, Injil

My [son] is busy with construction works [but] during [the] lockdown he was not able to work outside… He was not able to earn enough to send us… Most of the people are jobless, as there is no more construction work as before. If they go to the city, there is not enough work too, due to corona and insecurity. There are no more NGOs to bring projects to villages for people.” Female respondent, 46, Pashtun Zarghun 

One respondent whose household was displaced to Kandahar City drew distinctions between the impact of Covid-19 in rural versus urban areas, particularly with regards to the impact of disease containment measures on the ability to earn an income in urban areas.

When we were in our district, people did not consider Covid-19 an obstacle for [their] family, livelihood, and daily wage labour. We did not have a quarantine in our community, and our district's fatality rate was also meagre. On the other hand, people in Kandahar City lost their relatives. They faced quarantine and were not able to work during the day.” Male respondent, 26, Kandahar City

The heightened price of staple goods, particularly food, agricultural inputs, and fuel, is high among people’s immediate concerns. Many respondents consider these price increases to have been initially driven by market closures and transportation disruptions due to Covid-19 earlier in the pandemic, but more recent conflict and instability (see below) has been attributed to the continued increase.

Since the start of Covid-19, the price of commodities has increased. In the past, I was buying one can of cooking oil for 1,200 AFN ($13.06), but now the same can is 2,400 AFN ($26.12). When things are getting expensive, the income that people have is difficult to survive on. Luckily, the price of wheat and flour has not changed yet.” Male respondent, 53, Dand, Kandahar

Due to Corona some things which were imported became expensive as borders were closed, things like chemical fertiliser. Seeds to cultivate [have also] become more expensive… Our expenses increased, we have to provide more food, and there is disease and sickness to spend money on for its treatment. Female respondent, 19, Injil

The price of every food item has increased. Before Covid-19 I was able to buy 10 litres of cooking for 600-700 AFN ($6.53-$7.62). Now, the price of the same cooking oil is more than 1,100 AFN ($11.97). In addition to this, the price of one litre of petrol was 25-30 AFN ($0.27-$0.32). After the start of Covid-19, it has reached 57 AFN ($0.62). When we ask shopkeepers why the price is so high, they say border closures. There is no transportation between countries and that has an impact on imports and exports.” Male respondent, 53, Pashtun Zarghun 

“A bag of black fertiliser, which was 2,100 AFN ($22.86), costs 4,000 AFN ($43.54) now. I bought white fertiliser two weeks ago for 1,120 AFN ($12.19), but now it has reached 1,710 AFN ($18.61).” Male respondent, 53, Injil

Afghanistan was not food secure before Covid-19 due to protracted years of conflict and severe droughts. The impacts of Covid-19 have worsened the situation for many rural and urban poor households. Across the country, quantitative analysis of survey data indicates that 69% of households before Covid-19 (October 2019–March 2020) had worried about not having enough food to eat, a figure which rose to 76% during the initial months of the pandemic (April–September 2020). More households during this same pandemic period compared to the preceding months also reported eating less, skipping meals, eating fewer kinds of food, and various other factors reflecting their heightened food insecurity (Diwakar, 2022, forthcoming, based on analysis of IE&LFS data).

The majority of respondents reported few changes to their household’s food security, however, a smaller number reported becoming more food insecure as a result of Covid-19. Those households reporting little to no change may have therefore normalised their food insecurity. 

Before Covid-19 we consumed meat two or three times a week. We consume once every two weeks or once a week now.” Male respondent, 65, Injil

People used to eat rice five nights a week, but now they cannot eat any rice at all. Meat is not mentionable at all, and I have known people who cannot consume meat in a month. Wedding and funeral ceremonies are the only time that people can eat some rice and meat to get energy; there is no other way.” Male respondent, 53, Injil

A majority of respondents report being directly affected by Covid-19 infection, either being infected themselves or reporting infections among household members and other close relatives. The health effects of these infections range from mild symptoms that passed without treatment to fatality. Access to health facilities is widely reported, though treatment costs and transportation disruptions have had an impact on people seeking treatment. Many respondents sought treatment, though most emphasised the effect of the costs of these treatments on their households’ economic security, as well as lost time in employment and day labour. One respondent reported avoiding treatment due to misinformation about the dangers of attending a health facility for Covid-19.

“We are living with the fear of Corona. My son became sick last year, but fortunately, he became better soon. I was affected by Corona too last year. Thank God, I was healed and became better. My second son became sick too, as he was deported from the Iran border. People said he had Corona too, but his health was worse than ours. My daughter-in-law got Corona last year and the doctor gave [her] some medicine and she became better.” Female respondent, 56, Pashtun Zarghun

“Looking at the signs and symptoms, five members of our family had Covid-19 including my wife, two sons and their wives. I have spent 1,000-2,000 AFN ($10.88-$21.77) on each; however, my wife was seriously sick, and I spent about 5,000 AFN ($54.43) on her treatment. It has an effect on our income source and household economic situation.” Male respondent, 65, Injil

“[All] five of my family members have had Coronavirus. No one was left without Corona. We did not go to the doctor more than once and we were treated at our own house… I have spent 20,000 AFN ($217.73) for our treatment. Half of that amount of money I had and the rest I have borrowed from our neighbours.” Male respondent, 53, Injil

While we wanted to take the family members to the doctor it was challenging because it was hard to reach since there was no car to take [us] to an appointment.” Male respondent, 65, Injil

Our financial situation has been getting worse since the start of Covid-19. My mother, my wife and I got sick., I did not have money to take them to a doctor… The other reason for not taking my mother to a doctor was that I heard many rumours that if a person is Covid-19 positive and you take him to a doctor, they will inject an IV to kill them and increase the number of dead people from Covid-19. Therefore, I did not dare to take my mother to a doctor. I was also sick for 15 days. Because I did not have money, I did not visit a doctor.” Male respondent, 25, Injil

Some respondents expressed a lack of concern or disbelief of the existence of Covid-19 in their communities despite signs that the disease is present.

“People in our village do not consider Covid-19 a severe issue. Even though most of the people in our village were sick, they thought they had flu or fever. We also lost a few people in our village during Covid-19. It was not confirmed that they were Covid-19 positive.” Male respondent, 65, Injil

In our village, we had people clearly saying that Covid-19 cannot transmit to us. They did not take care of social distance, washing hands, etc. Therefore, after a couple of weeks, everyone in our village was affected with Covid-19, including my family. Fortunately, they got cured and did not go to a doctor. We did not test for Covid-19, but the fever and pain that we had in our body, was not the pain for flu. We were sure that we were Covid-19 positive.” Male respondent, 53, Pashtun Zarghun

Multiple respondents raised concerns about the indirect effects of the Covid-19 crisis on household dynamics, social relationships, and wider social cohesion. The pressures of movement restrictions and lack of livelihood opportunities that have left many at home struggling to earn a living have placed a strain on relationships and led to interpersonal conflicts. Those who have been displaced due to instability, conflict and climate disasters also reported losing their social support networks and having added strains on their relationships due to the pressures of daily subsistence. Indeed, across the country, quantitative analysis of survey data indicates that in response to negative shocks, fewer households were able to rely on help from others during the pandemic months between April to September 2020, compared to the half-year before the pandemic (Diwakar, 2022, forthcoming, based on analysis of IE&LFS data).

“[Covid-19] has collapsed our lives. It ruined the whole life we ​​had. Do not leave your house. Do not go for work or other life matters; do not go to gatherings and parties. It has totally collapsed and paralysed [our lives].” Male respondent, 53, Injil 

When men are at home unemployed it is difficult for them to bear everything such as the noises of children etc. So, this has created lots of family conflicts, and family violence has increased.” Female respondent, 28, Pashtun Zarghun

“Daily, we leave our family early in the morning to find daily wage labour. Sometimes we can find it, and most of the time, we cannot find it. We lost our freedom, and we do not have free time to chat with our friends. Our social connection is getting blurred; therefore, we do not know people here in Kandahar.” Male respondent, 24, Kandahar City


Other concerns overlapping with Covid-19

Climate change

Afghanistan is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change due to “the high dependence of its population on agricultural livelihoods, fragile environment, poor socio-economic development, high frequency of natural hazards and over four decades of conflict,” according to UNEP’s Afghanistan Vulnerability and Adaptation Technical Assessment Report. Just before the pandemic, the recent drought in 2018 and 2019 displaced over 400,000 people in the country, alongside flash floods in 2019 which displaced another 42,000 people. Respondents, namely those in rural areas dependent on agriculture, considered recent floods and droughts to be a leading threat to their household’s wellbeing. Multiple respondents noted that the impacts of floods had worsened in the last two years.

The flood destroyed our farms last year badly. This year floods also came and destroyed some parts of our farms. It had a huge impact on our harvest.” Male respondent, 42, Pashtun Zarghun

 “Some people grow wheat and corn, and other people grow wheat and basil. Last year there was no water in the Dahla dam (a dam that irrigates Kandahar city and Arghandab and Dand district) so we used solar energy for our land irrigation.” Male respondent, 53, Dand

We faced drought some years ago, but it was not as bad as it is now. The flood [also] came and destroyed the farms. We cultivated tomatoes but they were destroyed by flood this yearThey were covered by mud due to flooding, so we couldn’t get a good harvest from our farms.” Female respondent, 56, Pashtun Zarghun 

This year, we faced a lot of financial crises and problems. Each year, we have a flood, but this year, the flood hit our harvest at the wrong time and destroyed our crop.” Male respondent, 65, Injil 

In the quantitative analysis of survey data from 2019/20 moreover, shocks related to disasters (e.g., drought, floods), agriculture, or food/farm prices was associated with a higher probability of poverty and welfare loss, particularly during the summer of 2020 (Diwakar, 2022, forthcoming).

Political instability and insecurity

Longstanding insecurity and conflict in the sampled areas were at the forefront of most households’ concerns. Many respondents have been personally affected through the loss of one or more family members, disrupted livelihoods or displacement. Nearly all reported indirect effects with regards to community relationships, access to services and support and reduced coping strategies. It should be noted that interviews took place immediately before the recent Taliban takeover and withdrawal of international actors and the findings, therefore, do not reflect changes since these major events. Data collection in Kandahar was carried out in June and Herat in July 2021. The team were in Herat province when the Taliban took control of Islam Qala and Toorghondi borders and Pashtoon Zarghoon in Herat. 

Our biggest problem is that Corona and insecurity both came together. Besides teaching and gardening, [my husband] was able to do some trade in the Gunj [where people come together once or twice a week to trade goods]. Now people are not able to go to Gan as our area is insecure and war is going on around there. It happens that we can’t get out of our house for weeks due to war.” Female respondent, 28, Pashtun Zarghun

There is fighting, insecurity and drought, and we could not work on our land. As a result, we have decided to come to Kandahar city. I am a daily wage labourer. However, the labour market has been very down for the last year, and I cannot find work now. Usually, I work in the construction sector. But the construction market is very down, and Covid-19 also narrowed this market.” Male respondent, 50, Kandahar City

 “First, they killed my brother in October, and after 35 days, they killed my father. When my father and brother were alive, they had income. My brother was in the military, and he had a salary. My father was working on our garden. He had an income. We have lost two income sources for our families.” Male respondent, 53, Dand

In the last couple of weeks, the Taliban closed the canal from [the] dam. As a result, most of the farmers and garden owners were complaining about it and they were worried that if they did not irrigate their garden, they may lose it. After a lot of requests from the local people, the Taliban released the water yesterday, and last night we irrigated our land.” Male respondent, 53, Dand

“There are thieves who stop people and take their mobile phones which may cost 6,000 AFN ($65.32) or even take motorbikes from people. Such incidents happen a lot. The security situation has a lot of impact on farmers and everyone. As a result, it has affected our income and livelihood.” Male respondent, 65, Injil

In the quantitative analysis of survey data from 2019/20, insecurity and displacement were associated with a higher probability of poverty and welfare loss. This probability was particularly high during the summer (July–September) of 2020 (Diwakar, 2022, forthcoming).


Coping strategies

The quantitative analysis of survey data in 2019/20 points to a range of coping strategies in response to negative shocks experienced by households. Out of the active coping strategies recorded, over half of households experiencing shocks reduced expenditures as their main strategy, and also relied on less amount or quality of food. During the survey months overlapping with Covid-19 (April–September 2020), moreover, these strategies were more common compared to the months before the pandemic. Other coping strategies emerging from the qualitative data are highlighted below (Diwakar, 2022, forthcoming, based on analysis of IE&LFS data).

Loans and long-term debt

Many respondents report coping with lost income, increased costs of staple goods, health costs and other major expenses – such as dowry and wedding costs – by taking out loans. In the quantitative analysis of survey data, reliance on credit or loans was relatively consistent before and during the pandemic. In the qualitative data, among those who have taken loans, most expressed challenges in paying these back and are at risk of long-term indebtedness.

I get loans from relatives and neighbours to provide daily expenses such as food or other necessary needs. I get a loan to buy groceries when I need to. I get a loan whenever my family members become sick and have to see a doctor.” Female respondent, 46, Pashtun Zarghun

There is no one in this village who has not become indebted under these circumstances. Either he did not have the money for medicine or was short of money for his daily needs. They borrowed from their neighbour to repay later. If this drought and Corona continue, we would have no other option but to spend our whole lives in debt.” Male respondent, 53, Injil

Displacement, migration and remittances

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre says: “Afghanistan faces one of the world’s most acute internal displacement crises as it suffers protracted conflict and insecurity as well as recurring disasters, including droughts, floods, storms and earthquakes. Displacement has become a common coping strategy for many Afghans and, in some cases, an inevitable feature of life for multiple generations. Over 404,000 new displacements associated with conflict and violence were recorded in 2020, and there were 3.5 million people internally displaced as a result at the end of the year. This latter figure is an 18% increase compared with 2019 and the highest figure in more than a decade.”

When the fighting started between the government and the Taliban, they started shelling each other. Because of the shooting in our village, 11 people have died. Among them, three kids were also injured. After this incident, I have decided to go to Kandahar city. When I was displaced from Kandahar, we did not have a house to live in. Then one of the relatives found a place for us, and for the last three months, we have been living here.” Male respondent, 25, Kandahar City

As soon as the wars started, people started leaving their home and village. Eighty percent of people have been displaced to other provinces and districts. Only 20% of people remained. Those who are not able to go somewhere, and do not have means and resources of movement, stay there.” Male respondent, 27, Injil

Migration to Iran to earn income was also reported by many households as a common coping strategy, though it was noted that this has become more difficult due to Covid-19 border closures.

“Apart from agriculture, there is no other work for us. Our village is a tiny village - 60 to 70 people have migrated to Iran from our village. They went there for work. Most of them are those people who are the head of a family, or they have to pay their bride price.” Male respondent, 65, Injil

One of my sons is in Iran, it is about one year. He went legally with a passport, as the border was closed, so he had to stay there. He is living there illegally as his passport is invalid now.” Female respondent, 40, Pashtun Zarghun

More generally reflecting this decline in migration, remittances also fell during the pandemic. While inflows totalled $828.6 million in 2019, they fell to $788.9 million by 2020.

Support from government, NGOs and Taliban

To overcome and reduce the economic hardship of Covid-19, the government of Afghanistan implemented a range of aid programmes in which they identified the vulnerable people to whom they distributed cash. With the support of other international partners like WFP, food aid like flour, bread, wheat and lentils were distributed to people at risk of economic hardship. Social networks, local traders, people in business, and other wealthy people also supported those who lost their jobs or income sources.

Despite the reported prevalence of these programmes, few respondents indicated that they had received any formal support through the Covid-19 crisis other than a small number of food rations and small one-off cash transfers. Most reported that the distribution of support to households in need was very opaque and largely depended on relationships with local leaders.

“No, we did not receive any aid. Only one time they sent us a carton of soup to distribute to the household.” Male respondent, 65, Injil 

Only once did we get some aid such as a bottle of oil, one Mun beans, two Muns of flour and one packet of salt. Nothing else. I think it was from the government, I don’t know exactly who brought the aid. One of my cousins listed the names of all families who were in need and brought it from another village.” Female respondent, 46, Pashtun Zarghun

Our Imam of the Masjid wrote our name. After some time, they called our Imam and went and took the aid package. First, I received food items (a sack of flour oil and other food items), and the second time, I received 3,000 AFN ($32.66). I also received three pieces of bread per day for a week.” Male respondent, 42, Dand

Our Malik (head of the village) got killed and the new Malik is not very active. Maliks have a vital role in these aid packages. If we have an active Malik, he finds support or aid for his villagers. The reason is, he should visit the district office every day or twice a week and find information about aid and other support. Our ex-Malik was very active in it. When he passed away, we did not receive any aid.” Male respondent, 53, Dand

 “When we were displaced, I took my father and went to DoRR (Directorate of Returnees and Repatriates) and requested support. My father knows a person in that directorate. He registered my father and gave him a registration card. He [requested] cash and in-kind support. After two or three months they called me and asked me to go to DoRR and get my aid. I received a sack of flour and one bottle of cooking oil last month.” Male respondent, 25, Kandahar City.

Government containment measures

Covid-19 has severely affected the whole system of governance in Afghanistan in the pre-15 August 2021, context. It has directly affected businesses, the labour market, health, and transportation systems. The country experienced a lockdown between 28 March to 9 May 2020. All the schools and social gathering areas such as hotels, parks, markets, local bazaars, wedding halls and restaurants were closed.

The government built the first Covid-19 hospital within 20 days in Herat province. This initiative expanded to other areas including Kandahar, Badakhshan, Nangarhar and other key cities, followed by oxygen production facilities in different regions and provinces. In provinces like Kandahar and Herat, the government established a screening centre for returnees and migrants from Iran and Pakistan, a Rapid Response Team, established a stock of masks, gloves, soap, and sanitiser kits in high Covid-19 areas. Many Covid-19 response hospitals in Kabul and provinces are reportedly now closed due to a lack of equipment/resources. Of 37 Covid-19 response centres, 32 are now closed.

These prevention measures were in place during data collection (June 2021), and people were receiving aid in cash and in-kind from different government institutions. People were also receiving their first and second vaccinations, although the demand for vaccination remains higher than supply.

There have been two key critiques of the government’s response to Covid-19: the sporadic corruption in the procurement process for the Covid-19 response centres such as the purchase of ventilators and using the Covid-19 response as a political means to gain popularity and support. For example, the World Bank-funded government-run Covid-19 Relief Effort for Afghan Communities and Households (REACH), also known Destarkhwan-e-Million, was halted in several provinces by the Taliban during January 2021 due to ‘lack of coordination’ with them and ensuring that ‘it is not looted and reaches needy people’. 

Methodology

CPAN Covid-19 Poverty Monitor bulletins are compiled using a combination of original qualitative data collection from a small number of affected people in each country, interviews with local leaders and community development actors, and secondary data from a range of available published sources. Interviews and focus group discussions for this bulletin were conducted between June and July 2021 in rural and urban areas in Kandahar city and Dand district of Kandahar province and Herat city, Pashtoon Zarghoon and Injil district of Herat province. Quantitative analysis was based on NSIA’s Income, Expenditure, and Labour Force Survey 2019/20. More details on the sampling and methodology for this bulletin can be found here.


This bulletin was created by Chronic Poverty Advisory Network and Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit. The Covid-19 Poverty Monitor Project was made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.  

 
Source: https://flickr.com/photos/eu_echo/97202621...

India Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: January 2022

How is Covid-19 impacting people living in, or at risk of, poverty in India? What policies are needed to mitigate the impact of Covid-19 on chronic poverty? CPAN’s Covid-19 Poverty Monitor is an ongoing research project that interviews people about their experiences of the pandemic. This is the first bulletin focused on India - to find out more about the project, visit our blog about the global project. This bulletin dives into the main economic, health, educational and other concerns of those interviewed, as well as policies to minimise the impacts of Covid-19 suggested by the respondents.

Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

The Covid-19 pandemic and the consequent lockdown and containment measures triggered widespread economic insecurity across India. More than 80% of the households in the Delhi National Capital Region [NCR] suffered some sort of economic hardship. Fifty-four percent reported extreme economic hardship between April to May 2020 following the March 2020 nationwide lockdown. Although economic activity picked up as the lockdown gradually lifted from June 2020, the economic stress continued to be felt across households over the next several months as evidenced from various rounds of the Delhi Coronavirus Telephone Survey (DCVTS) launched in 2020. 

Daily wage workers and petty business owners suffered the most: Lockdown and containment measures led to severe loss in income for those engaged in informal work. The effect was acutely felt by casual daily wage workers working in non-agricultural sectors, who do not have access to social security benefits or a steady source of income. Many had no alternate recourse during the pandemic and struggled to meet essential needs. Those engaged in micro-businesses also complained that they had to temporarily suspend operations due to lockdown restrictions or faced a steep decline in sales due to lack of demand resulting from reduced purchasing power of customers.

“Life was ‘good’ before the pandemic. The three men in the family would earn about Rs 500 ($6.70) [Rupees to US dollar conversion as of 4 January 2022 from xe.com] to Rs 700 ($9.38) per day, working as a daily wage labourer in the factory. The earnings were sufficient to manage the expenses. But since last year, earnings have reduced. They have been mostly sitting at home. Now daily wage earnings are much lower at about Rs 50 ($0.67) per day.” Male respondent, 54, household of seven members, rural Haryana

“We had a good turnover in our vegetable business in the past, but income flow has reduced significantly during the pandemic due to lack of customers. This colony was earlier full of villagers from outside places [migrants] and my business was heavily dependent on them. With lockdown restrictions in place, many residents of this area went back to their native village. We are now struggling to meet our daily food expenses and are eating only rice and pulses. My children are finding it difficult to get jobs. We came to the city to earn money, but if the situation continues like this we would prefer to go back to our native village.” Male respondent, 55, household of seven members, urban UP

“I’m involved in wage work in the morning, either working under MGNREGA [Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, a public works programme] or any other private employer-based on availability. Usually, I open my shop around 4pm. My kirana [small grocery shop] has suffered substantially during the pandemic. The average daily turnover is Rs 1,000 ($13.41), but I can hardly make a profit of Rs 3,000 ($40.23) at the end of the month after expenses. Before the pandemic, my profit was an additional Rs 1,000 ($13.41) [per month].” Male respondent, 46, household of three members, rural Haryana

Agriculture provided relief to rural households: While urban workers struggled to find work, in rural areas, access to agricultural work provided relief for some. Famers with their own land were relatively better off and did not suffer as much from loss in income.

“We faced problems going to market and for treatment due to mobility restrictions. But other than that, there was no difficulty as we cultivate our own land and faced no interruption in agricultural work.” Female respondent, 28, household of three members, rural UP

My business [stitching work] has been suspended for the last year and a half, as people prefer to buy readymade clothes these days. I hardly earned Rs 1,500 ($20.11) in some months during the pandemic. We have our own one bigha agricultural land which yielded four to five quintals of wheat and one quintal of paddy during the last season. This helps us sustain ourselves for seven to eight months.” Adult male, 40, household of five members, rural UP

In the focus group discussion conducted in rural UP, people felt that those who were engaged in non-agricultural daily wage employment in the private sector outside the village, those employed in nearby towns and cities, were affected most by the pandemic both in the first and second wave. The same sentiment was reflected in response to the question of how life in the village has changed since the pandemic:

“Life is going on as before. Village conditions have also remained the same. But ‘market’ work has stopped for those who were working outside in towns/cities as labourers. Work in the village did not reduce [because of the pandemic], it continued.” Respondent, rural UP

Salaried workers also suffered income loss: In contrast to daily wage workers, salaried workers were better off on the margin. But, while some salaried workers received a full salary even when they were asked not to report to work, others were less fortunate, either their salary was reduced, or they were laid off. Some reported that they had to accept another job with much lower pay, while others noted that they are looking for job opportunities and hope to find something once Covid-19 cases decline, and firms start hiring again.

“My husband did not receive any salary during four to five months of last year’s lockdown and April–May this year (2021). In May he managed to get wage work for around 15 days, with a daily wage of Rs 200-250 ($2.68-3.35).” Female respondent, household of six members, urban Haryana

“I work as a supervisor at a cloth printing factory. I joined this job in December 2020 and used to earn a monthly salary of Rs 10,000 ($134.10). But since 24 April 2021, I have been called on a weekly rotation basis (about 10 days of work in the month) and the salary has been proportionately deducted. During last year’s lockdown, I was working as a data entry operator. It was not full time and payment was made on a per-entry basis. Hence income was not fixed, and it was below Rs 10,000 ($134.10) per month. I was laid off during lockdown.” Male respondent, 23, household of five members, urban UP

With hiring at a low, new job seekers had trouble finding work: New labour market entrants had a tough time finding jobs in an especially tight labour market.

“I worked with a telecom company as an executive but got laid off eight months ago. My earlier salary used to be Rs 25,000 ($335.34) per month. After being laid off, it was challenging to find another job during the lockdown. I somehow managed to get the current job through one of my friends. However, the salary is much lower, and I am looking at alternate job opportunities in e-commerce. I have not yet received any positive response.” Male respondent, 26, household of four members, urban Haryana

“My husband is a daily wage earner. Before the pandemic, he used to earn Rs 400 ($5.36) per day. Now he earns much less and gets work for fewer days. My daughters and I are willing to work to supplement the family income but have not succeeded in finding any work.” Female respondent, 37, household of seven members, urban UP

Increased cost of staple goods: Respondents in rural UP and Rajasthan complained of an increase in prices because of the lockdowns imposed to tackle the pandemic. The price of mustard oil was reported to have increased from Rs 70-80 ($0.93-1.07) pre-pandemic, to Rs 180 ($2.41). The price of vegetables coming to the village from other areas also increased during the lockdown and afterwards. Landless casual wage workers who participated in the focus group discussion in rural UP noted the price of bidis (small cigarettes) increased from Rs 10 ($0.13) to Rs 50 ($0.67), and the price of alcohol increased from Rs 100 ($1.34) to Rs 500 ($6.70).

Reduced purchasing power: Lockdowns have disproportionately affected businesses. Grocery shops (Kirana stores) were least affected during the first lockdown in April–May 2020 as they were mostly open due to being essential. During the first lockdown, most of the grocery stores experienced more than usual turnover due to the hoarding of items by households. Wholesalers charged higher prices during that time. During the second wave and subsequent lockdown (April–May 2021), the income for some businesses such as grocery shops was lower in comparison to the first lockdown. The situation has not improved even after the easing of lockdown because people didn’t have enough money to purchase. Some of the worst affected businesses are marriage halls and catering services which hardly had any business because of avoidance or postponement of social functions.

Even now [August 2021], the business scenario is down. People don’t have money at hand as the household savings was exhausted during the first lockdown. After the first wave, people started working and saving but before they could save enough, the second wave and another lockdown started. Increased cost of goods adds burden to the household purchasing power.” Key informant, Urban Haryana

Landless households with casual wage work or micro businesses as the main source of income experienced food scarcity, particularly, in urban areas. Although no respondent reported skipping an entire meal, insufficient or inferior food intake and absence or lack of variety of vegetables and fruits, pulses, eggs, meat in their diet were reported by most households. Increased price of grocery items and reduced household income during the lockdown and afterwards played a major role in insufficient food consumption. It was difficult for some households to manage daily food expenses. Significant decreases in consumption expenditure were reported by many households. Most rural poor households were supported by free rations from government social safety net programmes, so they were relatively better off. Urban households faced greater food insecurity as most did not receive rations.

“We faced extreme difficulties during lockdown with no food at home. My children were hungry, but we had no rice, no pulses to cook to feed them! We had to beg people for money. My brothers were trying to send money, but my bank account was blocked. Finally, they sent money through someone.” Female respondent, 32, household of four members, urban Haryana

A man with disabilities from rural UP who used to stitch clothes on a piece-rate basis had his work completely stop due to the lockdown and he struggled to meet household needs during the pandemic. He was surviving by harvesting crops in other cultivators’ land and doing his own cultivation from a small piece of land. He estimated his monthly expenditure as Rs 7,000-8,000 ($93.89-107.28) during normal times including food, conveyance, children’s school fee, electricity, etc. During the pandemic, his household reduced expenses on food and other items significantly leading to monthly expenditure as low as Rs 2,000-2,500 ($26.82-33.52).

“Sometimes we made rotis with more salt and didn’t cook vegetables or eat rotis with chatni or tea. Sometimes we faced a shortage of vegetables, oil, sugar, chilli, turmeric and soap. We did not do anything and stayed at home. Since lockdown, we did not go anywhere. I feel weaker physically without proper diet and nutritious food.” Male respondent, 40, household of five members, rural UP

Another man from urban UP used to run a vegetable shop. Before the pandemic, both of his sons were working as salaried workers (sweepers) in a gym. During the pandemic, the gym was closed. After the first wave, one of them was able to take another job as a sweeper in a housing society but in the second wave number of workdays decreased to half and so was the salary. His younger son is still looking for a job. 

“Earlier we used to have meat, mutton thrice a week, often paneer was cooked but now we can’t afford such items not even once a month. Earlier we used to have sufficient income, but now earning enough is very difficult. Now we had to reduce food expenses significantly by eating simple food such as dal or roti. We came to the city to earn more money, eat better food, and live a better life. If we end up in a situation where we barely survive, we will go back to our village home.” Male respondent, 55, household of six members, urban UP

Non-enrolment of young children: Closure of schools on account of the pandemic meant that many children aged five to six years could not enrol in school when the national lockdown was announced. A telephone survey conducted in Delhi-NCR between December 2020 and January 2021 found that about 10% of children in the age group six to eight years had not yet enrolled.

The biggest impact of Covid-19 has been on education. Those who are older are smart and can study online; can study on their own. But young children cannot study on their own. Because of school, they would study something, even attend private tuitions. When schools are closed, why would they [young children] attend private tuitions” Key informant, Rural UP

Limited learning activities because of school closure and online education: Schools were closed to contain the pandemic when the national lockdown was announced in March 2020. The subsequent opening of schools for in-person instruction varied across states depending on Covid-19 infections and age group of children; in-person instruction resuming for older children earlier than younger children. Primary, upper-primary, and middle schools in India have been closed for 17-18 months to curb the spread of coronavirus. Children in classes nine to 12 started returning from September 2021 onwards. During the period when schools were closed, not all children had access to online education to continue with their learning. As per the Delhi Metropolitan Area Study (2021), about 66% of children in urban areas had access to in-person online education compared to 36% of rural children.

Children are given assignments [online via mobile phone] to complete. But they do not understand it much. Children do not have textbooks and schools have not opened. From where will children complete their tasks?” Female respondent, 31, household of eight members, Rural Haryana

“When schools are closed, what will the teachers teach? [Teaching and learning] does not happen through online mode. [In this village] even adults cannot understand teaching via the online mode. [The teacher doesn’t] know whether children can understand [the study material] or whether they are paying attention.” Male respondent, Rural UP

Studies are getting severely affected. Online teaching is nominal. What is the school doing? They are merely sending copies of textbooks, pictures of the textbooks, children must complete the task and send it back. Children are kept busy [in this] while I must bear the burden of internet charges. Children are not studying; they play [online] games. This is a matter of concern.” Male respondent, 35, household of five members, Urban Haryana

If adults cannot understand [online classes], how can children?...... Tasks assigned as part of online classes; I get it completed by the child. But the child will benefit only when there is face-to-face teaching.” Female respondent, 40 years, household of six members, Urban UP

Financial constraints for education: Another way in which children’s education has been affected is being withdrawn from school or if they stopped going to school because parents cannot afford to support their education.

My child has not gone to school for two years. He studied in a private school, it’s a small school, not a big one - fees are okay. They are conducting online classes, but I do not have a ‘big’ smartphone, I have a small phone. That is why, for the time being, I have stopped his education.” Male respondent, 48, household of three members, urban Haryana 

My children are not going to school this year because we have not given them anything [paid fees]. Last year when schools were open, they asked for fees for the full year even though they were open only for three months. We did not pay because we did not have money. Children have not been going to school since the first [national] lockdown.” Female respondent, 30, household of five members, urban Haryana

Covid-19 cases and death burden: Compared to the first wave of Covid-19 (August–October 2020), the second wave has had more severe consequences. There was a massive surge of cases in both rural and urban areas, a supply shortage of essential treatments, and increased deaths, particularly among younger populations. Moreover, during the second wave in India, many cases of mucormycosis, also known as the black fungus, have been reported in patients with diabetes and patients with Covid-19, as well as patients who were recovering from infection (Asrani, Eapen et al. 2021). The excessive use of steroids in the treatment of Covid-19 and immunosuppression by the virus perhaps led to the emergence of this fungal infection (Dyer 2021). 

Two of my relatives died of Covid-19 recently, my brother-in-law and wife of my nephew; both belonged to the same family. They were hospitalised but did not receive oxygen facility on time and succumbed to death. In their village, around 10-12 people were infected with Covid-19 and two to three people passed away.” Male respondent, 45, single, rural Haryana (Jind)

“Many people had Covid-19. We did not keep a count, but there was [almost] no house that did not have it. Every household had a fever or cold. Now, whether they got tested for Covid-19 or not is a different matter. The situation was quite bad in May 2021; it is better now… About 40 persons in the village [with a voting population of around 5,000-6,000] died due to Covid-19. The poor took medicines for the fever and did not get tested. Some recovered, while others did not.” Respondent, rural UP

The second wave had quite an impact in the village. About 5-10 persons in the village have ‘certainly died’ because of Covid-19. In contrast, last year [2020] only one to two males who came from outside the village had Covid-19. The fear in the second wave was such that even if someone dies for a reason other than Covid-19, people assumed that the death was due to Covid-19.” Key informant, rural UP

From the focus group discussion, it was apparent that UP panchayat (village local body) elections precipitated the spread of infections in the village. Even the village Pradhan got infected with Covid-19 during the panchayat elections in this village. Also, one Covid-infected person lost his eye due to a black fungus infection.

Every household in the village suffered from fever [during April–May 2021]. Those who had diabetes, breathing issues could not survive. Those who went to the government hospital, [most of them] passed away. They put the patients in one room, threw medicines from distance, didn’t provide meals and other services. This was the situation in this particular district. Out of 3,500 voters of the village, 58 people passed away. During April–May 2021, on average one to two people died every day. [When got to know about the situation] people avoided government hospitals for treatment.” Male respondent, 46, single, rural Haryana

One respondent’s wife died in May 2021 in the civil hospital from Covid-19 (RT-PCR tests showed negative, but CT scan revealed signs of Covid-19). Social and economic challenges were also reported due to infection with Covid-19 among respondents.

We had trouble managing our family expenses, particularly non-food expenses. We did not have money and I fell sick, and there is no one else in the family to work. Business transactions have been less, and I could not open my shop for two months on account of my illness.” Male respondent, 45, household of two members, rural Haryana

Although one of the key objectives of the first lockdown was to build health infrastructure to prepare for Covid-19 surges, a key informant working as a civil servant in the district administration acknowledged that during the first lockdown and afterwards, little effort went into building infrastructure as there were not many cases in their district. However, the second wave opened their eyes, and they realised the need for building specific infrastructure. Now they have built a 70-bed hospital to accommodate only Covid-19 patients.

Vaccination outreach and uptake: India started its vaccination drive on 16 January 2021 with two vaccines (Covishield and Covaxin) approved for emergency use, both being manufactured in India. From the qualitative interviews, it was evident that many respondents and their family members did not go for vaccination because of fear of vaccine side effects. However, these concerns reduced as more and more people started getting the vaccination, and the rate of vaccination improved significantly in both rural and urban areas. Some respondents suggested that home-based vaccination or vaccination camps in the neighbourhood would be more effective towards a higher level of coverage as that would reduce hesitancy and avoid crowding at the vaccination centre.

People were saying that those who have breathing troubles if they get vaccinated would die. Someone died here too. He had breathing problems, he got vaccinated and died. I too have had breathing ailments for a long time, but nothing happened to me. As of today, I’ve had only one dose. Everyone is getting vaccinated now.” Respondent, rural UP

Three to four older people over the age of 80 from our locality and neighbouring areas were healthy before vaccination. But after taking the vaccine, they had a fever for 10-15 days and then passed away. That’s why people are apprehensive of taking the vaccine and very few people from our area got the vaccine.” Male respondent, 26, single, rural Haryana

People spread rumours that after vaccination participants get a high fever, breathing troubles in ten days, other strange side effects in twenty days. God knows what else! Our neighbours were not taking the vaccine. When we got the shots, they enquired about the side effects. We said that we got mild fever only. Then two other people received the vaccine.” Female respondent, 32, household of four members, urban Haryana

One key informant from a district civil hospital cited supply constraints as a hindrance to the sub-optimal vaccination coverage. He acknowledged the effort of the NGOs for the success of the vaccination drive in the districts of Haryana.

The vaccination programme is going very well in the district. However, due to supply constraints, we are getting only half of the required doses from the centre. In most districts of Haryana, the vaccination is going well, except for the Nuh district. There is a lot of hesitancy among the residents of this district. Things were worse at the early phases of the vaccination drive. Now with the help of religious leaders and NGOs, acceptance for vaccination is increasing. Also, now people can see that the side effects of vaccination are mild, hence, they are more forthcoming.” Key informant, Haryana

Disruptions in routine healthcare: In addition to the direct disease burden of the pandemic, Covid-19 related pressure on the health system and the disruption of routine health services emerged as a major area of concern (WHO 2020). Secondary data sources, such as Delhi NCR Coronavirus Telephone Survey (round four), reveal that the level of disruption is low for non-Covid-19 routine healthcare services that are commonly used and are generally available closer to home (e.g., access to medication, treatment of minor illnesses like fever, cough and cold, diarrhoea, pregnancy and delivery-related services, childhood immunisation). A key informant from rural UP noted that services rendered by the local Accredited Social Health Activist worker (ASHA) such as immunisation, pre-natal and post-natal care were not affected by the pandemic. However, specialised services that often require travelling outside the village or the local neighbourhood (e.g., care for cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory illness, and kidney disease) were more difficult to access. 

From the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, social distancing was the major policy tool to prevent the spread of the virus. Governments at the national, state and local levels as well as local non-governmental organisations (NGOs) helped spread awareness of the virus and how to combat the spread. As a result, almost all respondents in the sample were aware and followed the advice, especially during the first lockdown. In a few cases, there were reports of infighting among household members, children quarrelling due to inadequate housing space and members of the household having to stay together longer than usual. Respondents also raised issues of isolation and the lack of social bonds especially with near and distant relatives. Marriages and other social festivities which form a major part of social life in India were postponed or limited.

Increased tension within the household members happened in ‘all’ households. If [people] do not go out of the house, then they are likely to get irritated”. There were ‘nok-jhok’ (arguments) between parents.” Female respondent, 37, household of seven members, UP

A male respondent reported that he did not visit any relative’s house during this pandemic. His cousin got married in March 2021, but he did not attend due to the pandemic. No relative has visited him recently and he reported feeling disconnected. Another male respondent who tested positive for Covid-19 and received satisfactory treatment from a government health facility reported facing social stigma which has impacted his wellbeing. Once he started going out after one month of isolation people were avoiding him, not sitting close to him, and his relatives have stopped talking to him over the phone.


Coping strategies

Social protection

India’s Covid-19 social assistance package (known as Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana or PM-GKY), announced on 27 March 2020, was designed to provide immediate relief to vulnerable populations. The PM-GKY provided cash transfers and in-kind supports (food rations, cooking gas) through existing schemes to lower-income households. In April 2021, in response to the second wave of infections, the central government announced that free food grains would be provided to 800 million people in May and June, similar to the additional food rations provided in 2020.

A direct benefit and public distribution system (PDS) was already in place in India. Casual wage workers, poor households and others needing support, particularly in the rural areas, were able to get some of these benefits rapidly, though benefits remained modest in size. Less stringent restrictions and expanded government mechanisms for direct benefits transfer in rural areas have meant that the targeting of marginalised groups was much better in rural areas. According to interviews, households used this support to maintain food security. Many urban poor households did not receive additional rations despite their need for it, as the qualitative data and DCVTS round two and three findings highlight.

Sattu packets were distributed when the lockdown was first announced in March 2020. This was done till September 2020. No ration came in for October 2020. In November, wheat, rice and chana dal were distributed. For the next three months (December, January and February), nothing was distributed. In March 2021, milk and ghee packets were distributed followed by refined oil and chana dal in April. Midday meal distributed to children during the lockdown [in lieu of cooked meal] was as follows: three kilograms of wheat, two kilograms of rice, one kilogram of chana dal every month.” Key informant, rural UP

We were in dire need, but we did not receive any government support during this time, neither ration nor cash transfer. I requested multiple people to help us get the ration card or alternative ways of getting rations but did not get any guidance or support.” Female respondent, 32 Urban Haryana

We used to collect rations and other essential items from the Lions Club on our own to prepare packets containing wheat flour, pulses, rice, salt, spices and edible oil. I also used my vehicle free of cost for the distribution of rations. About 70-80 packets were distributed each day for a month. Key informant, urban Haryana

Livelihood transitions

Livelihood transitions have been observed among households during the pandemic period based on qualitative and quantitative data.

Rickshaw pullers started selling vegetables in the lockdown. Vegetable selling was necessary for their survival but pulling rickshaws provides them better income. There were too many people selling vegetables, hence, the income was lower. This was during lockdown only and when the market started opening and they started getting work, they returned to their previous work.” Key informant, urban Haryana.

 “In the pre-pandemic period, my husband used to work in a shop. However, it has been a year since when he was dismissed from the job. He was dismissed when the lockdown was announced in March 2020. He used to earn about Rs 7,000 ($93.88) a month. Since then, he has been working as a vegetable vendor. As a result, his earnings have dropped and become erratic. He earns about Rs 100-200 ($1.34-2.68) rupees a day. Whatever is earned, is spent immediately.” Female respondent, 30, household of five, Urban Haryana

Borrowing and reduced expenditure

During the first and second lockdown and afterwards, households that could not manage daily expenses coped by borrowing from friends, relatives and other informal sources or purchasing from local grocery shops on credit.

I had no work during the lockdown and had to take a loan for Rs 30,000 ($402.34) to meet expenses.” Male respondent, 26, household of four, rural UP

Since my income has reduced significantly, I manage family expenses by taking small loans and buying on credit from the local shop. We also had to reduce expenses. We did not attend the marriage of a relative to reduce spending.” Male respondent, 26, single, urban Haryana.

Government containment measures

The Government of India imposed a nationwide lockdown starting 25 March 2020, for 21 days which was further extended till 31 May (70 days) through multiple announcements. In the early stages, all trains, buses and aeroplanes were stopped from transporting passengers, schools and colleges were closed, most offices and businesses were closed, and residents were asked to stay at home and work from home wherever possible. 

To contain the spread of infection during the second wave, different states adopted different strategies. Some states (e.g., Delhi, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu) imposed full lockdown whereas others considered partial lockdown (e.g., West Bengal, Gujarat, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh).

Methodology

CPAN Covid-19 Poverty Monitor bulletins are compiled using a combination of original qualitative data collection from a small number of affected people in each country, interviews with local leaders and community development actors, and secondary data from a range of available published sources. Interviews and focus group discussions for this bulletin were conducted by NCAER National Data Innovation Centre, New Delhi, between April and August 2021 in rural and urban areas in Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. More details on the sampling and methodology for this bulletin can be found here.


This project was made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.  

 

Malawi Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: December 2021

How is Covid-19 impacting people living in, or at risk of, poverty in Malawi? What policies are needed to mitigate the impact of Covid-19 on chronic poverty? CPAN’s Covid-19 Poverty Monitor is an ongoing research project that interviews people about their experiences of the pandemic. This is the third bulletin focused on Malawi; please see the April bulletin and September bulletin, or to find out more about the project, visit our blog about the global project. This bulletin dives into the main economic, health, social and other concerns of those interviewed, as well as policies to minimise the impacts of Covid-19 suggested by the respondents.

Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

There were mixed views on how economic activities have changed since the last interview round. Most respondents reported continued declines in income and ongoing market disruptions while some reported improvements that had returned their livelihoods to or near pre-Covid-19 levels and a small number felt there had been significant improvements in their households’ wellbeing since the last interview. Among those that reported continued losses, many of these were farming households that are continuing to receive lower prices for their production.

“Last time I told you that my main challenge was that Covid-19 affected the marketing of our farm produce because buyers from Zambia and Lilongwe who offer very good prices did not come as borders were closed due to Covid-19. Worse still, the government did not live by its word that they would open ADMARC [state marketing board] markets to buy our produce so things have been bad. We are still selling our produce, especially maize, to the vendors at a throwaway price. We have not purchased the farm inputs for this coming season and worse still the prices of fertiliser have also increased, so we don’t know what will happen this year.” Female respondent, Mchinji, 42

A common issue identified among respondents is the continued decline in small business income and the availability of day labour due to reduced spending across communities. While some respondents noted improvements since the last round of interviews, a few identified a return to pre-Covid-19 demand. Some respondents attributed declines in business income to continued challenges in doing business across the Zambian border, but generally, there is a sense that spending has declined in the sampled communities. This is thought to be due to earlier losses from market closures and other containment measures that prevented normal economic activities from taking place, as well as tightened spending in anticipation of another spike in the virus that could restrict economic activities in the future.

“I can say that yes money is still a problem but things are better now. When the Covid-19 cases started to drop, we have seen that things are opening up because even piece works are now at least available and people are opening to start marketing, and income circulation has improved. So, it is better now but of course not back to normal because people are still not sure of what will happen next.” Male respondent, Balaka, 46

“My well-being has completely gone down, things are not well. The number of people who were hiring my bicycles at a fee has reduced. Sometimes three- or four-days pass without someone coming to hire my bicycles. Most people complain that they don’t have money because of Covid-19. Most people just walk when they are running their errands.” Male respondent, Mchinji, 51

We only rely on piece works to make money but at the moment it is too difficult to find and since it is too dry we cannot even go to the gardens so money is a big problem for me and my family. We may be the whole week without getting any opportunity to do ganyu, and that means trouble to find relish and other necessities like soap.” Male respondent, Balaka, 63

Things are not improving because, despite the low business progress, the prices of goods have increased due to the increase in production, as have transportation and fuel costs, so that it is why I am saying compared to last time, the problem has grown now.” Male respondent, Balaka, 68

Persistently high prices for basic consumption goods (e.g., food), farm inputs and transportation are a continued concern for most households, putting additional strain on households’ budgets that are constrained by lower incomes. 

The price of commodities [for consumption] is now worse. The price goes up every day and it is difficult to meet the demand. In the past I used to do casual labour for money, but now casual labour is also scarce, there is nothing I can do.” Female respondent, Balaka, 45

Nothing has changed, the price of commodities is still expensive, and the sudden price hike of fertiliser is another blow for us. We can eat food without cooking oil, but we cannot farm without fertiliser.” Female respondent, Balaka, 54

Nothing has changed, actually now the price of commodities is very expensive compared to last time we talked. Last time I said things are expensive but one it is too much.” Male respondent, Mchinji, 43

Four respondents reported significant improvements in their households’ wellbeing since the last round of interviews. Two attributed this to the decline in Covid-19 cases and the reopening of the border with Zambia, one pointed to the favourable prices for soya and the fourth said it was due to cash out upon the closure of the social protection programme they had been benefiting from. One of these respondents started a new business when the border reopened, and the cash transfer recipient restarted their fishing business that had collapsed during Covid-19 market closures.

Now that Covid-19 is not a big problem we are now doing good business because the borders have now opened and we are free to do business. I took advantage of the opening of the borders and started a new business. I now buy bags of small dry fish from Karonga and sell them in Zambia and this is good business.” Male respondent, Mchinji, 52

“My well-being has improved a lot because I was a beneficiary of the Social Cash Transfer Programme for four years. I was receiving K8,000 ($9.82) [All price conversions as of 26 November 2021 from xe.com] every month and it helped me to support the education of my children and buy basic needs. The programme phased out last month and I was given K74,000 ($90.84) as an exit grant to start a new life. I gave my husband K35,000 ($42.96) to resume his fish business which collapsed at the peak of Covid-19. I will also use the exit grant to roof my grass-thatched house with iron sheets.” Female respondent, Balaka

On the other hand, four respondents referred to the fact that they were living in poverty before the pandemic and that while Covid-19 may have exacerbated their challenges, they felt their situations were established prior to the pandemic. One older respondent didn’t know about Covid-19 until she was interviewed and expressed that while the last year had been difficult, she wasn’t aware of the processes behind this, though they do appear to be connected to Covid-19 disruptions to her normal support network.

As with economic conditions, there were mixed experiences in food security since the last round of interviews, though overall concerns were high for food security going forward for most households. Many of those households expressing concerns about the present or forthcoming food security were agricultural households that do not currently have enough stores to get them to the next harvest season.

Others threatened by food insecurity were those confronted by higher prices to purchase foods at the market and lower incomes due to small business declines or lack of casual labour opportunities. Those who rely on support from their networks to meet their basic needs also expressed that those networks were strained and therefore less able to support their food security.  

 “I did not harvest enough maize because of armyworms. This is a common problem and many people from this community are going to experience hunger because of armyworms.” Female respondent, Balaka, 45

I do not have food because I did not harvest enough maize. Apart from that my family is too big, it comprises of 10 members. I harvested 10 bags and finished way back such that I buy in small amounts at the market.” Female respondent, Mchinji, 42

 “I think my bicycle business could collapse and my family will suffer more. The business is just too slow and one would feel tempted to sell all bicycles because right now there is no profit. I am also worried about food insecurity. Right now, fertiliser is very expensive, I cannot afford it. I am failing to buy food for the family so I don’t think I can manage to buy fertiliser to cultivate maize.” Male respondent, Mhcinji, 51

All respondents acknowledged that school reopening meant that their children could return to school in theory, but many were facing difficulties in paying school fees. One respondent’s daughter became pregnant during the Covid-19 school closure and has not returned to school. These children have either dropped out temporarily, permanently or continue to face disruptions to their education based on failure to pay. Furthermore, another respondent reported that school reopening was often disrupted by Covid-19 cases leading to further temporary closures and that the management of re-openings has not been well coordinated.

I have seven children in primary school, and they are frequently sent back because I cannot manage to pay the development fund. Each child is required to pay between K500 ($0.61) and K800 ($0.98) per term, now for seven children it is too much for me.” Female respondent, Balaka, 54

Children are accessing education but sometimes it is disappointing to see children being sent back from school because there is one case of Covid-19 at school. I wish the government could have done more by making sure that children are learning even if we are living in the era of Covid-19 pandemic.” Male respondent, 42, Balaka


Coping strategies

A small number of agricultural households report diverting some of their land and time towards horticulture plots to support their incomes, though it has been noted that many people are growing the same crops, namely tomatoes, and the local market is therefore saturated. 

I plant tomatoes and vegetables and sell at a low price because there are many people producing vegetables in this area. Even though we sell at a low price, we invest a lot in producing them because pesticides are very expensive.” Male respondent, Mchinji, 51

Some respondents noted that they were witnessing reverse migration in their communities due to economic downturns in neighbouring areas and across borders which have caused people to return to their families.

There are many people who were based in Zambia, Zimbabwe and South Africa who are coming back due to economic problems triggered by Covid-19. It is like there are running away from problems but they met the same problems at home.” Female respondent, Mchinji, 43

As in previous interview rounds, there is further evidence of households selling off assets to meet daily subsistence needs. One respondent sold three bicycles that he had previously been renting out as a small business to pay for his daughter's school fees.  

Two households reported being vaccinated, with both male household members interviewed stating that they had insisted on their entire households being vaccinated, an indication that vaccines have started to penetrate these rural areas.

Significant challenges faced in the last year

Respondents were asked to reflect on whether the Covid-19 pandemic was the most significant challenge to their household’s wellbeing over the last year, or whether other factors were more significant. Covid-19 was indeed the most widely cited challenge faced by households with most other challenges cited linked in some direct or indirect way to Covid-19. These related challenges include economic instability due to border closures, lost business, and increased cost of staples due to local market disruptions, and disruptions to children’s education.

Four respondents in the sample argued that their poverty preceded Covid-19 and noted that while Covid-19 may have exacerbated it, they felt their situation was longstanding and that Covid-19 was not the leading cause of their present conditions. One respondent stated that their household’s wellbeing had not been impacted by Covid-19, the reason being that they were a salaried employee who was paid even during business closures. 

Covid-19 is the biggest setback for my family. Things started going badly when I stopped business due to Covid-19. Had it been that my business was not affected by Covid-19, my situation could have been much better. Covid-19 was a big blow to my family.” Female respondent, Balaka, 43

“Covid-19 is has been a significant challenge to our family. Some of our relatives died and we could not visit friends because of the restrictions. We lived in fear and every day we washed our hands with soap. We couldn’t interact with friends, life came to a standstill.” Female respondent, Mchinji, 56

Covid-19 remains the biggest blow I have ever encountered since I established my business. The money I was making from my business decreased drastically and at some point, I laid off some of my workers. I recalled them a few months ago when business started picking up.” Male respondent, Balaka, 52

Before this pandemic my life and the well-being of my household was good. I was doing well with my skills and was making money that I was investing in assets and taking good care of my family. We used to eat well and have a good life. But looking at myself now I feel sorry. It is like I am dreaming and somebody will wake me up from this slumber. Just months after the onset of Covid-19 things changed. No more contracts, no more markets, no more opportunities for piece works, nothing was ticking and we were like in a dark room. So yes, this Covid-19 pandemic has been a big challenge and threat to the well-being of my family”. Male respondent, Balaka, 46

Threats to future wellbeing

Respondents were asked to reflect on the most important issues that could threaten their household’s wellbeing over the next year. The most widely cited concern was food insecurity, particularly with regards to the impacts of climate change, such as drought and pest infestations, followed by continued inflation of agricultural input costs.

The second leading threat to future wellbeing was the prospect of further business declines, either associated with another spike of Covid-19 infections requiring containment measures or the continuation of lower-than-normal business which has yet to rebound since earlier market closures. Four respondents were concerned about their ability to pay their children’s school fees into the future, and four reported being concerned that their households could fall into poverty or deeper into poverty if conditions didn’t improve. Two of these respondents expressed fears that they and their families were confronted with the possibility of death from starvation due to the economic challenges they’ve experienced. One older respondent reported her biggest future threat was the ability of her support networks to continue to support her, and one respondent was concerned about the effects of the vaccine, indicating he felt there could be unknown negative side effects.

“I am afraid of this pandemic. This is attacking us from all fronts. We are afraid of dying from it, but we are also afraid of dying from its impacts like killing our businesses so if this disease can continue then it will be bad for us.” Female respondent, Mchinji, 47

Long term impacts of Covid-19

Respondents were asked whether they thought that the Covid-19 pandemic could have any lasting effects on themselves, their households, or their communities. Many reflected on price inflation and expressed concerns that prices would not return to pre-Covid-19 levels. A similar number of respondents were concerned that business could collapse because of economic disruptions and that Covid-19 could lead to impoverishment across their communities. Other long-term impacts cited included lost education for those children that drop out, long-term disruptions to support networks, and reduced health-seeking behaviours due to strains on the health system.

The lasting effect of Covid-19 is that economic problems will prolong and push us into deep poverty. We are suffering now but things will get worse because business is not picking up and currently there are no solutions to our problems.” Female respondent, Mchinji, 43

“[Covid-19] brought serious economic challenges at the household and even community level that it will not be easy to get back to our base. Previously, if I went to my neighbour and asked to borrow money, he will do it. But now you cannot find people to lend you money easily in this community because many people took a financial knock during the pandemic.” Female respondent, Mchinji, 47

Policy recommendations to mitigate the effects of Covid-19

At the end of each interview, respondents were asked to offer three suggestions for the government to help support them, their household, or their community to better cope with the lasting effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, building on what they had discussed in the interview so far. Their suggestions included:

  • Government support to pay school fees.

  • Cash, capital or loans to help small businesses mitigate losses and expand or diversify to become more resilient to future shocks.

  • Government support to support food security, especially during lean periods leading up to harvest, either in cash or in-kind including public works programmes.

  • Further government support to farmers such as further subsidies to fertiliser and improved seed varieties and better market controls to moderate price fluctuations.

  • Cash transfers to support older people who are unable to work.

  • Support for housing and infrastructure improvements such as transportation and health centres.


This project was made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.  

 

Philippines Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: November 2021

How is Covid-19 impacting people living in, or at risk of, poverty in the Philippines? What policies are needed to mitigate the impact of Covid-19 on chronic poverty? CPAN’s Covid-19 Poverty Monitor is an ongoing research project that interviews people about their experiences of the pandemic. This is the third bulletin focused on the Philippines; please see the April bulletin and August bulletin, or to find out more about the project, visit our blog about the global project. This bulletin dives into the main economic, health, social and other concerns of those interviewed, as well as policies to minimise the impacts of Covid-19 suggested by the respondents.

Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

There are no positive significant changes in the lives and livelihoods of the respondents since the second round of interviews carried out in June 2021, where respondents identified support for jobs, livelihoods, and financial assistance were key areas that needed attention to mitigate the impact of the pandemic. Among respondents, there was no expectation that the government or other sectors would provide assistance in the short or medium term. Respondents seem to be ambivalent about what the government can do for them in these difficult circumstances. 

Income from micro-livelihoods has yet to regain pre-pandemic levels according to respondents who operate neighbourhood stores, eateries and transport services (mainly tricycles). Also complicating the situation is the long lockdown from August to September 2021 in Metro Manila that affected the transport of goods and services to and from the regions. Lockdowns at the village level in the provinces also had an economic impact on residents. 

“We experienced another Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) this October (2021). My tricycle service was limited to alternate days with only two passengers for every trip. It has never been like the pre-pandemic time.” Male respondent, Bicol region 

“My family was struck twice by the Covid-19 virus. During the second bout of the illness, my wife’s absences from work, under the ‘no work, no pay’ policy of a Job Order from the local government, put us in debt to relatives and friends so that we could buy medicines for three of us who fell ill. To make matters worse, the practice of delayed salaries at the LGU (local government) necessitated that we borrow money again from another party to pay the first party we promised to pay on a particular date. We were doubly indebted.” Male respondent, Bicol region

“I’m lucky that I have my pension from the government to help us with our everyday needs. My son now only earns PHP100 or less a day from his tricycle service. He used to earn at least PHP300 ($1.99)3 a day before the pandemic. Our small store also helps us but not that much, maybe PHP500($9.97) as income on a good week. The last time I received money from my other children was last December 2020, where I got PHP2,000 ($39.89). I understand because they too have their families to feed. But that’s how we get by here.” Male respondent, Bicol region 

“I haven’t seen my siblings and cousins in the other town. I used to go there during harvest time and trade their harvest of rice or corn with fresh or dried fish that I get here from my son who works in the fish port. That trade was a great help for us in our everyday food expenditure. Since I am no longer able to do that because of the lockdowns, I feel now how difficult it is to lose additional sources of income.” Female respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao

Table 1. Philippines’ Covid-19 alert levels system

Taking relatives into one’s household was reported as a form of support to families experiencing economic difficulties amid the pandemic. This can mean migration to another location. 

“My 20-year-old son lives with my sister-in-law who has a general merchandising store in another province. My son gets paid for assisting in the store. This is helpful to me because he is one mouth less to feed in our household.” Male respondent, Bicol region 

Getting help from healthcare centres continues to be curtailed by fake news on Covid-19 and the fear of (i) getting the virus from the health facility, and (ii) being required to stay in the quarantine facility. Interviewees who had symptoms of the Covid-19 virus infection (flu, loss of sense of taste and smell) practised home quarantine and remedies. These cases went unreported. 

“I do not believe in the Covid-19 virus. Some say the vaccination can result in fatal illnesses as a way of curbing the world population growth.” Female respondent, Bicol region 

On the vaccination program, some sectors require their members to be vaccinated to be able to participate in their trade. This was the case of a Tricycle Operators and Drivers Association (TODA) in a province. 

“Our vaccination is scheduled at the end of October. You will not be allowed to bring out your tricycle for service if you are not vaccinated.” Male respondent, Bicol region 

Most respondents are vaccinated, and they encourage their peers, families and friends to get vaccinated. One respondent working alongside the local government’s programme on senior citizens’ welfare expressed how it has been difficult to convince senior citizens living in the uplands to get vaccinated. He shared that disinformation about the Covid-19 vaccines spread quickly in his town and that it stayed in the upland communities where government services are not easily accessible. 

Since nearly all respondents have experienced reductions in household incomes at different levels, they have adhered to health protocols to avoid getting sick and which can leave them with a huge debt from hospitalisation costs. Incurring health expenses from Covid-19 is an important concern among households as further financial burdens would lead them to chronic poverty. 

“I tell my sons not to meet their friends. They are still unvaccinated, plus the wife and adult kids of one of my sons. If they contract the virus, we will all surely die because there is no way that we can afford the hospital costs.” Female respondent, Soccsksargen region 

Given the limited financial resources of the state health insurer Philhealth, which is mandated to implement the country’s Universal Health Care (UHC), patients confirmed with Covid-19 can be covered with PHP 43,997 ($878) for mild pneumonia; PHP 143,267 ($2,858) for moderate pneumonia; PHP 333,519 ($6,653) for severe pneumonia and PHP 786,384 ($15,685) for critical pneumonia. Beyond these amounts, patients are expected to pay the balance of their hospitalisation bills. 

Issues that were raised around education in January 2021 remain a concern, particularly on the needs of high school students for gadgets to support their participation in online classes. The distribution of gadgets, such as tablets or laptops, and internet support for students has mainly been supplied by the local government and is therefore dependent on available financial resources. The national government has tried to address the digital divide by distributing laptops to teachers and school personnel. 

Schools are yet to open across the country and according to UNICEF, the Philippines and Venezuela are the only countries yet to resume basic education classes since the declaration of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. The only classes in tertiary education allowed to conduct face-to-face sessions on limited occasions are in the medical field. Starting 15 November 2021, 90 schools from the Visayas and Mindanao provinces will be reopened as a pilot to test the resumption of face-to-face classes in basic education. The effects of almost 20 months of modular or online classes in terms of learning outcomes and mental health have yet to be determined. 

“Online classes at the college level incurs additional costs because sharing of materials for tasks previously assigned to groups in a face-to-face set-up is not possible online. For instance, each student needs to provide for all the materials required for laboratory work in electronics.” Female respondent, Bicol region 

“Our children in high school need gadgets for their online education, but we cannot afford them.” Male respondent, Bicol region 


Long-term impacts of Covid-19 pandemic and forecast on future threats 

With the recurring lockdowns, a common issue among respondents is their inability to earn enough income and is their main concern if the pandemic lingers. Many fear food insecurity if the pandemic gets worse, as their food budgets are reduced. Respondents’ inability to socialise with their family and friends for almost 20 months has also emerged as a key concern among respondents.

“Community lockdowns and health protocols limited my mobility and opportunities for extra earnings to augment our family income. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, I used to be able to earn extra money on construction work during weekends besides my regular income as an LGU employee. Besides the limited mobility, there are also fewer opportunities in construction work because some homeowners are also anxious about the possible spread of the virus from construction workers while others have limited financial capacity for non-essentials like house repairs.” Male respondent, Bicol region

“I want to go back to my village. We can’t continue living here in the city because our incomes as store workers in this grocery are not enough. I will resume charcoal making. I don’t care if the government says it’s illegal. I still can’t do any farming since the rats are still there, and worse than before. They can’t let us die of starvation.” Male respondent, Soccsksargen region

“If the pandemic continues to linger, families and their community will surely be affected. If there’s a Covid-19 case in the area, there will be another lockdown and work will stop again.” Female Respondent, Bicol Region

Social distancing will have a lasting impact on the income of those with a transportation livelihood, such as tricycle and jeepney drivers, according to interviewees. One respondent expressed hope that with the vaccination programme, the pandemic will cease to be a threat and living conditions will get better.

Policy recommendations to mitigate the impact of Covid-19

Most of the respondents expressed the need for seed capital to enable them to start their own micro-enterprise but only a few could describe the type of enterprise they will establish. Employment was a key concern, and they hope the government can create jobs as most households in the sample have one or two members who have lost their jobs within the past 20 months. Lastly, the issue of high food prices was a prevalent and recurring concern since the first round of interviews. Respondents expressed that the government could take action to ease financial burdens, such as lowering the prices of food. 

“We live in a mountainous area. Support for a livelihood in livestock will be most helpful to us - chickens, pigs, feeds. Households in lowlands will need support in other forms of livelihood.” Male respondent, Bicol region

“A loan facility with easy terms intended for livelihood capital for a community store.” Male respondent, Bicol region

Households with children in high school suggested the government should support the provision of gadgets and internet connections to help them cope with online education. One interviewee suggested there should be a public area with free Wi-Fi to enable high school students to get online for education.

Based on the response of one of the interviewees, political ‘colours’ or affiliations triggered, for instance, by the upcoming 2022 elections, can provide the basis for the distribution of government assistance depending on who wins and who loses. Therefore, integrity in the selection for government assistance such as scholarships, cash transfers and relief goods should be guarded and preserved. This perspective comes from previous experience where villages receive public resources during and after the elections if their village political leaders can deliver votes for a specific political candidate. In addition, one interviewee from the Bicol region proposed the extension of the 4Ps programme or the Conditional Cash Transfer Programme which, according to him, is already closed to new members. 

One respondent reported the need to get the Covid-19 health crisis under control as overseas Filipino workers are adversely affected by the Philippines ‘red zone’ health categorisation, impacting incomes. 

“My daughter’s former easy access to overseas employment has been curtailed because of restrictions on flights and entry from the Philippines to other countries.” Female respondent, Bicol region

Some respondents also emphasised the need to improve the country’s vaccination roll-out programme. The Philippines is ranked at the bottom of all countries surveyed by Bloomberg’s Covid Resilience Ranking. The vaccination rollout has been low with about 26% of the total population fully vaccinated as of October 2021.  Moreover, vaccine hesitancy remains a problem in some areas. One respondent shared that she has encountered people who are wary of being vaccinated since they fear the side effects.


Key external sources

To find out more about the impacts of Covid-19 on poverty in Nepal, please explore the following sources that were reviewed for this bulletin:


This project was made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.  

 

Ethiopia Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: November 2021

How is Covid-19 impacting living in, or at risk of, poverty in Ethiopia? What policies are needed to mitigate the impact of Covid-19 on chronic poverty? CPAN’s Covid-19 Poverty Monitor is an ongoing research project that interviews people about their experiences of the pandemic. This is the third bulletin on Ethiopia; please see the April bulletin and August bulletin, or to find out more about the project, visit our blog about the global project. This bulletin dives into the main economic, health, food security and other concerns of those interviewed, as well as how prepared the government is to minimise the impacts of Covid-19.

Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

Persistently high cost of staple goods: As in previous rounds, the heightened price of staple goods, particularly food, is high among people’s immediate concerns. Many respondents consider these price increases to have been initially driven by market closures and transportation disruptions due to Covid-19 earlier in the pandemic, but most observe that these restrictions have been lifted and prices have not only remained high but continue to rise.

Several factors are likely to be driving increases in food prices, including tightened export availability of some commodities globally, depreciation of the country’s currency, poor harvests and trade disruptions due to conflict.

“The price of goods and services has increased since we last spoke, which creates a problem for the household. For instance, the price of a quintal of maize has increased from birr 1,500-1,800 ($31.66–$38.00)to 2,500 birr ($52.79) [All currency conversion as of 10 November 2021 from www.xe.com]. The price of other goods such as salt, coffee beans and related shop products has dramatically increased. I am just struggling to support my family given the skyrocketing price of goods and services. We live a hand-to-mouth life.” Female respondent, SNNP, 25

“Since we spoke the household expenditure has increased due to the increase in market prices. For instance, the price of food oil has increased from 15 birr ($0.31) per bottle to 40 birr ($0.84) now. The coffee beans that used to be bought for 60 birr ($1.26) per kg increased to 100 birr ($2.11) per kg. Similarly, rice, spaghetti and other shop products have dramatically increased and keep on increasing from day to day. For example, the price of spaghetti has increased from 17 birr ($0.35) to 30 birr ($0.63).” Female respondent, SNNP, 33

“We thought that the price increment was because of Covid-19, but since nobody is ill and the pandemic did not reach here, the price increment by itself might not be related with Covid-19. We do not know what is happening from above [government], but here we cannot attribute all to the corona.” Female respondent, Amhara, 35

Concerns over the impact of Covid-19 on health are low: All respondents report that concerns over the direct health effects of Covid-19 have diminished significantly in their communities. While health centres are reported to be maintaining Covid-19 protocols and advising mitigation measures, there is a general sense in all the communities sampled that Covid-19 has either left or never reached them. Alongside this general sense that Covid-19 is no longer a risk, other risks such as climate change and conflict feature higher on people’s lists of concerns (see below). Covid-19 has been deprioritised by most even though vaccination programmes have not yet reached these communities.

“Issues related to hygiene and sanitation are completely forgotten. People give more focus on finding a mechanism to get income and to feed their families rather than focusing on Covid-19. Health professionals also stopped awareness-raising except when we go to the health centre. People believe that there is no Covid-19, or it was already prevented.” Male respondent, Oromia, 60

What do we know, if they tell us to be careful, we accept their warnings, and if they remain silent, then we do not care about it.” Female respondent, Amhara, 40 

“We focus more on how to feed our children and to prevent them from dying from hunger rather than thinking about Covid-19.” Female respondent, Oromia, 41 

“I don’t use a facemask if not I am obliged. It is because if you use a facemask, you are considered snobbish. If somebody wears a mask, people will see him as if acting like as a superior.” Male respondent, SNNP, 37

Mixed vaccine awareness and willingness: All respondents were asked about their knowledge of Covid-19 vaccines and their willingness to accept a vaccine if offered one. There were mixed levels of awareness of vaccines with many people aware that they existed but little information beyond that. Among those aware of vaccines, all observed that there were no vaccines available in their area. There were also mixed responses in terms of respondents’ willingness to accept the vaccine. Some stated clearly that they would accept it if offered, others gave more vague responses as to their willingness to accept, while some stated they would not accept the vaccine.

“There is no information about the Covid-19 vaccination. I heard that last time the woreda [district] officials in the area were vaccinated but I couldn’t get the vaccination. However, now there is no information about the vaccination.” Male respondent, SNNP, 37

“Now people talk on media about vaccination, but vaccination is not important in the absence of the pandemic. Vaccination is needed if there is an illness in the area but there is no coronavirus and we do not need the vaccination.” Female respondent, Oromia, 45

Heightened food insecurity: Nearly all respondents reported heightened food insecurity since the last round of interviews. In most cases, this insecurity was attributed to the high price of food (noted above), with some also attributing it to lower than normal agricultural yield due to the drought and locust infestations. Some respondents report eating only two and in some cases one meal per day and in nearly all cases respondents have cut out certain goods from their diet or switched to lower quality alternatives.

“The food shortage is so critical at my household. Only the smaller children can eat three times per day. Sometimes, they may not eat three times. There are times when they eat only once a day.” Female respondent, Oromia, 41

“We cannot buy the maize crop because it is so expensive it reaches 2,800 birr ($59.07) per quintal. This is unthinkable for poor households like ours.” Male respondent, Oromia, 46 

“There is a critical shortage of food in my family. We have no livestock or income. We are dependent on income obtained from the sales of sugar cane that my children are engaging in. The price of maize in the market is very expensive. Previously we ate three times a day but now due to shortage of food and income we eat only once, and we could not get quality food.” Female respondent, Oromia, 45

We have sold more crops that we have kept at home for consumption to cover the increasing household expenditure and buy shop products. Moreover, we have reduced the amount of food we have consumed to minimize our expenditure.” Female respondent, SNNP, 33

Concerns around climate change: Most respondents continue to reflect on the effects of drought earlier in the season and the knock-on effects on livelihoods and food security. Although there has been some relief with the recent rains, it did not appear to lead to a full recovery of crops. Some farmers have been able to harvest later season crops such as haricot beans. Many respondents continue to list climate-related impacts on agricultural production as a leading cause of livelihoods losses and food insecurity.

“The summer rain was good. This has a positive impact on agricultural production. Especially the maize and haricot beans have been growing very well. This has brought hope for many of us. The last week has been very good in terms of the amount of rain.” Male respondent, Oromia, 71

“The teff crops which suffered from the shortage of rainfall during May/June was completely destroyed. People completely lost the belg crop this year. However, the summer rain was good for the maize and haricot beans. The rain is better for both the crops and animals during this summer. We hope that we will get a better harvest for the next harvest season.” Male respondent, Oromia, 60

Concerns around conflict: Concerns surrounding the threat of conflict that arose in the second round of interviews appear to be increasing among respondents in all sampled areas. The Amhara region has been directly affected by conflict and young people have been conscripted in Oromia. SNNP has been indirectly affected by increased prices due to conflict and households are being asked to contribute food and financial resources to the war effort.

In some cases, respondents are more generally aware of threats of conflict nearby, while others have been directly affected by relatives or community members being trained to fight. Displacement does not appear to have occurred in the areas sampled, but some respondents fear they could be forced to leave if the conflict escalates. One respondent indicated that her son joined the military since we last spoke.

“Physically active people have been taking military training to protect their communities from any insurgents. We are informed that there are conflicts in different parts of the country and the government is training the local farmers and young people to protect their communities from possible attacks from guerrilla fighters. During [community] meetings the focus is on the peace and security of the country. No issues related to Covid-19 have been raised or discussed at the meetings and trainings.” Male respondent, Oromia, 60

We hear that people are getting displaced [due to the conflict] and our families who were closer to the war are now displaced. We fear that this may become a reality for us as well. It is frightening, there is not much supply so we cannot buy what we want. There is not much movement and transaction. People are overwhelmed by fear.” Female respondent, Amhara 35

The market inflation is due to the war between the federal government and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). For the war preparation, the army needs different resources, and the community are also supporting the army in preparing foods, donating equipment, animals, etc.” Male respondent, SNNP, 37


Challenges and threats to wellbeing 

Challenges faced in the last year: Respondents were asked to reflect on whether the Covid-19 pandemic was the most significant challenge to their household’s wellbeing over the last year or whether other factors were more significant. No respondents cited Covid-19 as their household’s biggest challenge over the last year, though some did reflect on the pandemic’s role in driving other challenges. The most widely cited challenge cited was inflated prices of staple goods (namely food) followed by the effects of drought and locusts on agricultural production. One respondent cited conflict as their biggest challenge over the last year and one cited lack of health insurance to deal with their family’s non-Covid related health issues.

Threats to future wellbeing: Respondents were asked to reflect on the most important issues that could threaten their household’s wellbeing over the next year. Again, no respondents cited Covid-19 as their household’s biggest concern over the next year, though some did reflect on the pandemic’s role in driving other challenges. The most widely cited concern was food insecurity, particularly with regards to the impacts of climate change, such as drought, followed by continued inflation of staple goods. Three respondents cited increased conflict as their biggest concern over the next year and one respondent cited concerns around their households’ impoverishment.

Long term impacts of Covid-19: Respondents were asked whether they thought that the Covid-19 pandemic could have any lasting effects on themselves, their households, or their communities. Many reflected on price inflation and expressed concerns that prices would not return to pre-Covid-19 levels or that effective price controls would be introduced to mitigate price hikes during times of instability.

Inflation is a major lasting effect of Covid-19 as prices have not changed since they rose earlier in the pandemic. One respondent reflected on the possible long-term impacts on education (see April and September bulletins for further details on the impacts on education), while another respondent reflected on the possibility of long term impoverishment.


Policy recommendations to mitigate the effects of Covid-19

At the end of each interview, respondents were asked to offer three suggestions for the government to help support them, their household, or their community to better cope with the lasting effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, building on what they had discussed in the interview so far. Their suggestions included:

  • Government controls on price inflation and broader market stabilisation

  • Provision of food aid

  • Provision of agricultural inputs including improved seeds and fertilisers and better support to mitigate climate impacts on production

  • Protections against Covid-19, including the provision of face masks and access to vaccines

  • Restoring peace and assuring personal safety


Methodology

CPAN Covid-19 Poverty Monitor bulletins are compiled using a combination of original qualitative data collection from a small number of affected people in each country, interviews with local leaders and community development actors, and secondary data from a range of available published sources. Interviews for this bulletin were conducted in August 2021 in Amhara (eight households), Oromia (nine households) and Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNP) (seven households).


Key external sources

To find out more about the impacts of Covid-19 on poverty in Ethiopia, please explore the following sources that were reviewed for this bulletin:


This project was made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.  

 

Malawi Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: September 2021

Thank you for visiting our new Covid-19 Poverty Monitor. To find out more about the project, visit our blog about the project.

Sept-Malawi-webArtboard 4.png

Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

Partial market recovery and optimism: Among nearly half of respondents there was an expressed sense of optimism that things had improved since the last round of interviews conducted in February 2021. Most of these respondents attributed these improvements to a reduction of Covid-19 in their areas, the relaxation of restrictions allowing business to resume, and the recent harvest period which for many meant increased yields. The latest high-frequency phone survey supported by the World Bank also found improved employment opportunities; though these are mainly in rural areas which can partly be explained by normal agricultural cycles. There was however a large section of respondents who rely on farming of staple goods for their incomes that noted the market for these goods has not rebounded and is worse than this time in 2020. This finding is also supported by the World Bank high-frequency survey, which found that 43% of households reported reductions in incomes in June 2021, with Covid-19 remaining the main reason.

“Now things have improved. Unlike last time, the Covid-19 measures have been relaxed because the cases dropped, and we are now free to do business and are free to travel. But also with the harvesting period, a lot of people are involved in agri-business, buying produce, and taking them to Lilongwe and Chipata to sell.” Male respondent (52), Mchinji

“My income has increased since the government relaxed Covid-19 preventive measures. Whenever I go to do business at local markets, I make between K50,000 (US$61.54) and K100,000 ($123.09) and I use the money to order new materials for business.” Male respondent (52), Balaka

“There is an improvement in my wellbeing. I resumed my business, and I buy perfume and clothes in Zambia and sell them here. In the past, I was struggling but now things are getting better. Now I can buy food; in the past, I was getting food on credit.” Female respondent (42), Mchinji

“The last time we talked it was a difficult period. Business was not going well because of challenges in transportation due to Covid-19. We are now happy that things are now getting better. The country is opening up, and we are hopeful that things will get much better when ADMARC [the Agriculture Development and Marketing Corporation] starts buying crops from farmers.” Male respondent (52), Balaka

Agricultural yields: Harvests of major staple crops (maize, groundnuts and soybeans) took place in both locations of Balaka and Mchinji. Most respondents reliant on agriculture for household income and food security reported a significant increase in yield this year over last year. This was largely attributed to the wide distribution of subsidised fertilisers of which most respondents were beneficiaries at the beginning of the last planting season. There were however some respondents in the Balaka region that reported decreased yields this year over last due to armyworms invading their crops.

“This year I have harvested 25 bags, compared to 10 bags last year. I have harvested more this year because my husband had access to subsidised fertilizer. Last year we did not have access to subsidised fertilizer.” Female respondent (56), Mchinji

“The problem of perpetual poverty is still there but now there is a slight improvement because we have harvested our crops, so there is food we are eating.” Male respondent (65), Mchinji

“Honestly, my wellbeing has gone down. This year I did not harvest a lot because my garden was infested with armyworms. I only harvested four bags [of maize] compared to 10 the bags which I harvested last year.” Female respondent (41), Balaka

Agricultural incomes: Despite increased yields, most farming households are reporting decreases in agricultural income due to low market prices being offered for staple crops. As one respondent noted, maize prices are less than half of what they were this time last year. Some are holding off selling their production until ADMARC starts buying produce. ADMARC is a state grain marketing board that has been playing a price stabilising function to fight low and exploitative prices offered by market vendors. The challenge has been that ADMARC often enters the market late by the time which vendors have bought produce from desperate farmers at very low prices. This year there was some optimism that ADMARC would start buying produce early as promised by the new government, but it has just started doing so. There is hope that things will change from next year as they have now changed the financial year to run from 1 April to 31 March, instead of 1 July to 30 June.

“Now it is difficult for me to find money because the only way for me to make money is selling the maize that we have harvested. The problem is that the vendors are also stealing from us by offering very cheap prices.” Male respondent (63), Balaka

“The price of maize is very low such that it is hard for farmers to make profits. Right now, the price of maize is between K50 ($0.06) and K80 ($0.09) per kg. Last year it was better, we were selling at K200 ($0.24) per kg.” Female respondent (56), Mchinji

“I feel that we are still feeling the pinch of the Covid-19 pandemic. You see we are complaining of low prices of produce on the market because the market is full of vendors. For maize, the demand for the crop is low - leading to lower prices as the vendors from Zambia (who buy at good prices) are still not coming here because the borders are still closed. In addition, because many people struggled during the peak of the pandemic, we have few buyers on the market and people are not spending.” Female respondent (42), Mchinji

Overall food security: Food security appears to have improved in both locations over the last three months due to the recent harvest season. Those households that have achieved higher yields due to increased fertiliser use and good rains report positive changes to their household’s food security. However, many households are still eating less than three meals a day or eating poorer quality meals due to the persistently high prices of food items such as relish, cooking oil and meat. Many are still concerned about their household’s food security in the medium term.

“I think if I can compare my well-being in February and now, I can say that the only improvement for me is on food security. Now we have more food in the house, and we are happy. We have 120 bags of maize that means we are eating without problems.” Female respondent (42), Mchinji

“I don’t have enough maize to take me throughout the year. I harvested four bags because my garden was attacked by armyworms. The four bags I have are not enough, I will definitely run short of food by August.” Female respondent (45), Balaka

A small subset of respondents indicated that they have been coping with reduced incomes and threats to their food security by diversifying their production beyond the main staple crops.

“I was growing vegetables and cassava. I decided to grow these crops because I knew that at some point, I would sell and eat them.” Male respondent (52), Balaka

“I have enough food for the family. I cultivate maize, soya and groundnuts. This year God blessed us with good rains, so I had a good harvest. But groundnuts did not do well. I sold soya and made K70,000 ($86.17). I use the money made from soya to buy fertilizer.” Female respondent (56), Mchinji

Lack of work opportunities: Those respondents that rely on casual or day labour to supplement their incomes, or who have turned to this to cope with economic disruptions due to the Covid-19 crisis, are continuing to report fewer opportunities for these types of work since the pandemic. It was also noted among agricultural labourers that as harvest season has passed, there are fewer farm work opportunities, highlighting the precarity and seasonality of this type of work as an income source. Demand for other types of wage labour, particularly in the services sector, has been observed to have reduced since social distancing and other containment measures were introduced (Baulch, B., Botha, R., and Pauw, K., (2020) Short-term Impacts of Covid-19 on Malawian Economy: Initial Results, MASSP Report).

“With the Covid-19 pandemic, it is still difficult for me to find contracts from people. I have not found any work since we met in February until this week - somebody gave me a contract to construct a kraal for goats. So, all these months up to now I have been struggling to make money.” Male respondent (46), Balaka

There was a general appreciation expressed for the reopening of schools in February 2021. However, several households are continuing to face financial challenges by sending their children back to school. None of the respondents reported recovering income that was lost during the peak of the crisis or from the drop in livelihoods, and education is one area where some households have had to reduce expenditure.

“My child was supposed to start college education and the fees are K150,000 ($184.64) per semester but because of the income challenges I have failed to pay and told him to wait until the next semester.” Female respondent (38), Balaka

One respondent also noted that the change in the school timetable to accommodate social distancing measures in schools has caused disruptions to their productivity.

“The other challenge is that there is a disruption on the school timetable. Learners in standard three go to school at 10 am so it is hard for parents to divide their time to prepare children for school and run some errands to support the home, be it going to the farm. This implies that I can only leave home after my child has gone to school. Before Covid-19 children were going to school early in the morning, say by 7 am, and we had enough time to work in the garden.” Female respondent (43), Mchinji

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Stress due to caring responsibilities: A theme that emerged in several of the second-round interviews was the stress that household heads are under to support their families – both within the household and for extended family members. Both male and female household heads talked about the challenges they’ve been facing in financially supporting their families, and the added strain this has put on them during the recent months of economic contraction. 

“I think the impacts are more on me. First, I am a single mother, so the children and my family depend on me for support. When my business flops, it means I will not meet the responsibilities I have to take care of my children’s needs, meaning that my dependents are also feeling the impacts. Honestly, business was doing well before the Covid-19 pandemic, but since the pandemic started things are still bad and our financial capacity has been affected.” Female respondent (38), Balaka

“Being a man and head of the household is not a joke. This problem is heavily weighing me down as a father and provider for the whole family. Every morning the wife or kids will come to me telling me that they need money to buy something important for the home like food, salt, soap and others. So, I am affected but the family is also affected because I am failing to meet their needs like before. My children have even reached a point of telling me Dad you are not taking care of our needs and I agree and feel sorry for myself, but what can I do? Nothing.” Male respondent (46), Balaka

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Programmes introduced by the Government of Malawi in response to Covid-19

As in the first round of interviews, most respondents found no support for themselves or other people in need in their communities. A small number observed government or NGO activities, but there were limited details on the nature of this support or how one might access it. One respondent who had been a cash transfer beneficiary, having been identified as poor, has not received any payment since February of this year.

“At some point, government officials and the village headman came to my house because I live with my disabled brother. They wrote his name but we have never received anything.” Female respondent (42), Mchinji

“There is an organisation that came to help people with money when Covid-19 was at the climax. I would say they were government officials conducting social protection programmes. I heard during that period people were receiving K21,000 ($25.85) every two months and the idea was to cushion them from Covid-19 economic hardships. However, I did not benefit from that as much as I was struggling.” Male respondent (52), Balaka

“The church helps needy people. Apart from that, some women are working with NGOs and take a lead in helping needy people in this community.” Female respondent (56), Mchinji

“We just heard that there is an NGO that is helping people in this community, but I have never been a beneficiary.” Male respondent (65), Mchinji


This project was made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.  

 

Zambia Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: September 2021

Thank you for visiting our new Covid-19 Poverty Monitor. To find out more about the project, visit our blog about the project.

Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

Poverty pathways key:

  • Chronic Poor (CP): those who have remained poor for at least 5 years.

  • Temporary Escapers (TEs): those starting off as poor five years prior to the study and later escape poverty and fall back into poverty.

  • Sustained Escape (SE): those starting as poor and later have a sustained escape from poverty (including those starting off as non-poor and sustain or increase their status.

Continued decline in wellbeing: Of the 28 people interviewed (comprising of 19 Chronically Poor (CP), 3 Temporally Escapers (TEs), and 6 Sustained Escapers (SEs)), most of them reported a continued decline (n=20) in wellbeing during the period March to June 2021. Only four of the surveyed households reported an improvement in wellbeing while the other four indicated no change in wellbeing. The recorded improvement in wellbeing is largely attributed to increases in business activities due to a decline in new Covid-19 cases between March and May 2021, and therefore fewer restrictions. The change can also be linked to the cessation of electricity rationing (load shedding). However, all surveyed households anticipate a decline in wellbeing due to the current third wave of Covid-19 and heightened containment measures to reduce further spread of the virus.

“My daughter used to sell vegetables at the market, but she had to stop because of poor business. The number of people coming to buy reduced a lot. She then decided to start selling in town on the corridors where the council confiscated all her vegetables, that is how my business collapsed because I had used all the money for orders.” Female urban participant, Kabwe

Table 1: Change in the wellbeing of participants between rounds 1 and 2 of interviews

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Loss of livelihoods and income: Most people reported a loss of income mainly due to continued partial loss of livelihoods. While micro and small business owners report being able to conduct business, their income has reduced. Although this is partly because of declining economic performance due to the huge contracted national debt, it can also be attributed in part, to inflation and stark changes in foreign exchange rates. The year-on-year inflation rate for March 2021 was 22.8%, increasing to 24.6% for July, representing a 1.8% difference between March and July 2021. This implies that the prices of goods increased by 22.8% and 24.6% between March 2020 and March 2021 and between July 2020 and July 2021 respectively (see Zambia Statistical Agency Monthly Bulleting Volumes 216 and 220).

“There is a lot of change; my profit has gone down but I am still doing the same business: selling doormats. These days, I only sell one or two doormats in a month. Things are bad; people don’t have the money, I make about K20 (US$1.03) or K40 ($2.07) per month.” Female urban respondent, Kabwe

“I am still struggling with my business, it keeps declining… My income has gone down because it’s very difficult to sell these days and I can go for three to four days without selling anything. Most of the people have electricity, and my expenditure has gone up because things are very expensive. For example, an egg used to cost K1 ($0.05). Now it’s K3 ($0.15). My expenditure is increasing while my income is going down.” Female urban respondent, Lusaka

“I stopped selling buns because my customers started getting on credit and when it’s time to pay, they would always give me stories, so I decide to stop.” Female rural respondent, Chipata

Increased household expenditure: All respondents reported an increased cost of basic items with exception of mealie meal, cooking oil, vegetables and rain-fed crops. Price reductions for cooking oil were facilitated by the government while price reductions for mealie meal, vegetables and rain-fed crops are largely attributed to seasonality.

“The cost of living has gone up because prices of all the commodities you can mention are going up every day. For example, we used to buy bread at K9 ($0.46) now as we are speaking it’s at K17 ($0.88). Even a tray of eggs, last time you came it was at K25 ($1.29) and now it’s at K55 ($2.85) so really my expenditure has changed.” Male urban respondent, Lusaka

 “From the last time we spoke, my income has gone down yet my expenditure is going up every day. The cost of living has gone up and our economy is very bad.” Female rural respondent, Chipata

Increased cost of conducting business: Micro and small businesses reported an increase in the cost of conducting business due to an increase in order prices of goods without a corresponding increase in selling price.

“There is a reduction in our income and an increase in our expenditure because my business is not doing well – because of the increase in order prices of commodities. Life has become expensive.” Female urban respondent, Kabwe

Partial loss of remittances: Some respondents report partial loss of remittances due to a continued decrease in the level of support from their relatives. Support has declined because supporters are also struggling for survival due to continued decline of income and loss of livelihoods.

“My income has reduced because the money I used to receive from my son has reduced.” Female rural respondent, Chipata

“I still do farming and get help from my granddaughter, although the help is not as often as before because she is also saying her business is going down, she is only making about K800 ($41.45) to K1,000 ($51.81) per month.” Female rural respondent, Chipata

“There are some changes since the last time we spoke: my daughter who used to give us K250 ($12.96), now only sends us K50 ($2.59) occasionally.” Female rural respondent, Chipata

School closures: The government closed schools from 17 June to 16 August 2021 due to a third wave of the pandemic. Some schools continued supporting pupils and students online while other learners with access to television depend on the public educational broadcasts by the Zambia National Broadcasting Corporation (ZNBC). However, these measures were not effective due to limited access in both rural and urban areas. Most of the surveyed households in rural areas did not have access to television sets, radios or the internet and those that had were constrained by lack of awareness of such educational programmes, lack of electricity and internet access. The main limiting factor in urban areas was the limited awareness of these programmes.

“I am not aware of any educational programmes that are broadcast on radio or television. We are just waiting for the schools to open. How can we know when I don’t even have a radio, even this phone I am using to talk to you is for the community caregiver.” Female rural participant

“I have a television and a radio which I connect to solar power, and I once heard that there are educational programmes on radio and television. The problem is that I do not know the time they broadcast. The other problem is that I use solar because we are not connected to the national power grid in this village. We only watch the television in the evenings for a few hours due to limited power.” Male rural participant

“Last time I mentioned I have someone in university, the one I said was on bursary. They closed due to Covid-19, and he was saying that his friends are learning through the computer so he asked me to help him buy one, but I could not manage because I do not have that kind of money, even if he had a computer, I am not sure I can manage to be buying him internet bundles.” Female urban participant

Access to health services: Respondents report increased access to health services than in the last bulletin. There is reported improvement in health-seeking behaviour for people with Covid-19 related symptoms despite the reported limited bed spaces and oxygen cylinders. Participants say medication for Covid-19 patients is continually out of stock, which is synonymous with a constrained health service delivery system. As a result, some people prefer to self-medicate with over-the-counter drugs and traditional remedies rather than going to health facilities. While stock-outs are common in both rural and urban areas, a lack of bed space and oxygen cylinders are more prevalent in urban areas.

Covid-19 vaccination: The Covid-19 vaccine is still associated with various myths; some religious people associate it with a Christian prophecy (666: the mark of the beast), while others see it as a tool devised by the west to depopulate Africa. However, there has been an improvement in the number of people willing to be vaccinated since the last bulletin. A total of 496,594 people had their first vaccination and about 193,603 have been fully vaccinated.

Access to staple foods: Most rural respondents report having enough staple food, although the research was conducted during the harvest period. However, some report poor yields due to limited agricultural inputs. Most of those in urban areas report continued limited access to staple food.

A reduction in the quality of food was common to both rural and urban areas. The reduction in the price of mealie-meal, cooking oil, vegetables and rain-fed/seasonal crops appears to have little impact due to the continued decline in people’s incomes.

“As it is the harvest season, food is available and [we keep] most of it for home consumption. We have harvested our crops now and food is plenty.” Male rural respondents, Chipata

“We have not secured much food this year due to a poor harvest caused by limited farming inputs.” Female rural respondent, Chipata

“I have no food; I depend on my neighbour. We only eat once a day, as having two meals would mean spending the next day without food. We cook our supper at around 4pm then that’s it for a day because we can’t afford to buy food for two meals as my business is not doing well.” Female urban respondents, Lusaka

“In terms of food, there is great reduction because I no longer have proper food. I eat whatever is available and I rarely have food in my house. I mostly eat once a day. The quantity is less and the quality of the food very poor.” Female urban respondent, Kabwe

“We no longer buy food in bulk. We depend on pre-packed mealie meal which we buy every time we want to have nshima. Sometimes, we buy more food if the business is doing well.” Male urban respondents, Kabwe

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Social cohesion: Covid-19 restrictions continue to limit social cohesion. Restrictions not only limit social interactions but also weaken the informal social support systems in the communities as there are limited opportunities for meeting and assisting each other. This has adversely affected vulnerable groups that survive on these support systems, such as the elderly, disabled and female-headed households.

“Now we can’t even have weddings or kitchen parties. it is our tradition to go with presents and the community contribute money during these functions, helping new couples a lot with material and financial support from the community. Support which one cannot receive if they just married without the activity. And the support received increases when more people are in attendance.” Urban female participant, Kabwe

“I don’t receive many visitors now because of Covid-19. Community members and relatives previously used to come around to see me, they would even fetch me water, clean my surroundings and mostly come with food. Now I do not see them as often because people are not allowed to move.” Female rural participant, Chipata

Stigmatisation: Former and current Covid-19 patients report stigmatisation; people tend to stay away from Covid-19 patients long after they recover. This often leads to loss of business when the affected is a businessperson.

“I have been sick with Covid-19 three times now. The first time I had Covid-19, I had serious challenges, my workmates stopped socialising with me even after I recovered. Some are still scared of me even now. Sometimes I even feel like Covid-19 is the reason my contract was not renewed. This has really affected my carpentry business because I think potential customers are scared to visit. This has also affected my wife who is a marketeer because people who know her are still scared to buy from her, over two months after I recovered from Covid-19.” Male urban participant, Kabwe


Coping Strategies

The respondents report the following coping strategies:

  • Drawing on savings and borrowing: A few participants who are resilient report being able to save during good times and draw on savings or borrow during hard times.

  • Limiting expenditure to essential commodities: Most participants report reduced expenditure on non-essential commodities.

  • Government remittances, e.g., social cash transfer and pensions.

  • Informal trade: Some participants have taken up informal trading, mostly in their households as a coping strategy.

  • Farming and gardening: Some urban participants report taking up farming and gardening as a means of reducing expenditure on food.

  • Casual day labour: Some participants reported taking up casual labour in addition to their usual livelihood activities, a copy strategy they often turn to during hard times.

  • Food rationing.

  • Informal support networks including family, friends and well-wishers.

  • Identifying of cheaper sources of commodities such as buying vegetables directly from farmers.

  • Prayer: Some report that they pray and wait for God to provide.


Programmes in place to mitigate impoverishment due to Covid-19

Covid-19 Emergency Cash Transfer: The government continues to disburse the ZK2,400 ($20.74) one-off Covid-19 relief fund for those on the social cash transfer (SCT) programme. Five of the households interviewed that are social cash transfer beneficiaries confirmed receipt of the funds.


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Key external sources

To find out more about the impacts of Covid-19 on poverty in Nepal, please explore the following sources that were reviewed for this bulletin:


This project was made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.  

 

Ethiopia Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: August 2021

Thank you for visiting our new Covid-19 Poverty Monitor. To find out more about the project, visit our blog about the project.

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Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

Easing of restrictions but markets not stabilised: All respondents observed that the price of staple goods, namely food and transportation have not reduced despite the easing of many restrictions on market trading and public transportation. One respondent noted, for example, that the cost of a bajaja ride (motorised tricycle) increased from 15 Birr ($0.34)[i] pre-Covid-19 to 20 Birr ($0.45) yet has not gone back down despite the easing of restrictions on the number of passengers that could be carried.

Heightened prices for staple foods such as cooking oil, rice, maize, sugar and pepper were a particular concern for households entering the lean post-harvest season and are struggling to grow new crops due to drought. Many households are reporting that they have to buy more from the market than usual due to poor harvests, where they are confronted with higher-than-normal prices, magnifying the severity of their food shortages. Multiple respondents attributed inflation of the price of local goods to traders taking advantage of the Covid-19 crisis and the government’s inability to control these traders. 

“In earlier times there was a restriction on transportation and household members were afraid of Covid-19 to go to market. However, now there are no more restrictions and household members freely go to market and access goods and services although the price is still expensive.” Female respondent (45), SNNP

“Things have become expensive because of Corona and have remained as they are, they did not return to their place. When the government asks them to reduce the price, the retailers have started to change their place and sell things at the back of their yard saying whoever wants will buy and who does not want to will leave it.” Female respondent (27), Amhara

“Before there was a high level of hysteria as people used to say that there is someone infected around here or there or that the virus reached a nearby town. That has reduced now, but the effects like the price rise have remained the same.” Female respondent (36), Amhara

“The price of maize crop in the market is so expensive. The price of maize is about 1,600 Birr ($36.43) now. It is so expensive as compared with the previous months. We could not even get the seeds of maize to sow. Some people already sowed it, but the poor are still waiting for a miracle to get the seeds. People who have cattle are selling their cattle and buying maize both for food and for seed.” Male respondent (70), Oromia

Two respondents reported benefiting from the increased price of livestock and animal products they trade, such as butter and milk. A third respondent reported increased income from rent collection and the sale of capsicum.

Limited livelihoods alternatives: Households that normally supplement their incomes with casual day labour and informal trade continue to struggle to find work. Agricultural labourers are also faced with limited opportunities as a result of delayed sewing of crops due to the absence of rain. Two respondents reported that they or their neighbours have begun selling firewood to support their incomes, either by chopping trees on their own land or from nearby bushes.

“My husband was engaging in paid work in the town before Covid-19, but the jobs are not promising now, and he could not get the daily labour every day. I have been engaging in pottery and sell it in SH market. My husband can’t get a job now and he stays at home without any job.” Female respondent (45), Oromia

“We have been selling firewood to earn income. Poor people who do not have livestock and other sources of income are dependent on selling firewood.” Male respondent (40), Oromia

[i] All currency conversion as of 12 July 2021 from www.xe.com.

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Lack of testing but evidence and denial of Covid-19: Based on reports of illnesses among respondents, there is evidence to suggest that Covid-19 could be present in the sampled communities without being reported. Three respondents described having Covid-like symptoms since we last spoke with them in March 2021. In each case, other members of the household had similar symptoms, but no respondent reported being tested for Covid-19, including the one respondent who did attend a health centre.

This respondent explained that since we last spoke with him, he fell ill with coughing, headache, shortness of breath and loss of appetite. He also noted that the illness spread through his entire family and most of them, including himself, have yet to recover. Despite these possible Covid-19 cases, most respondents report that concern for the disease has significantly diminished among local officials and the local population, with many respondents themselves believing that Covid-19 is no longer a risk in their area.

“There is no corona here. It does not exist in this area. It may exist in other places, but it is not here. We do not care about it.” Female respondent (45), Oromia

“I still feel tired, and weak. I feel illness around my chest. I could not travel to distant places and sit for longer hours. Sometimes, I cannot breathe properly. I may fall when I walk. I cannot work. Only other people can help me in farming because the illness made me very weak. My child who became sick also dropped out of school. He stopped his education from grade 3 due to the illness. He is not fully recovered.”  Male respondent (70), Oromia

“At the moment there is no government direction and focus to prevent Covid-19. Rather the government focuses on election campaigns. All parties engaged in the election campaign are moving in the area using cars and wearing t-shirts.” Male respondent (45), SNNP

Vaccination rates: Despite its wide acceptance (one study shows that COVID-19 vaccination acceptance is as high as 98.6% in Ethiopia), vaccination rates for Covid-19 are very low in rural areas. Only one of the respondents, who works as a health officer was vaccinated.

“As a member of the staff in the health centre, I have been given the vaccine. However, my wife and my parents have not taken the vaccine because there is a critical shortage of the Covid-19 vaccine. Only a few people have had the chance to get vaccinated.” Male respondent (40), Oromia

Compounding effects of climate change: Delays in rains needed to plant next season’s major crops – namely teff, maize and potatoes – are among the top concerns for agricultural households, both those with landholdings and also farm labourers. Persistent drought in all three sample areas is posing a significant risk to households’ livelihoods and food security over the coming year. Some respondents observed that these concerns have usurped concerns over the pandemic as the threat of poverty and hunger due to drought feel more immediate than the risk of falling ill from Covid-19.

“In the past, this was the month in which people harvest teff and potatoes but due to the dry weather condition, there is no such production this year which contributed to food insecurity in the areas. Everything is being purchased from the market and many people do not have any income to buy food items from the market. People could not buy the food items, and many are being starved at home.” Male respondent (40), Oromia

“The teff crop which we sowed two months ago is now drying due to shortage of rain. We are crying to God to give us rain. The teff crop is burned in the soil because of shortage of rain and the dry and hot temperature.” Male respondent (70), Oromia

“Regarding Corona, people are becoming careless because the worry has become another issue. The worry has shifted to drought. It is now April and people have not sowed for the season. People are worried about their life being taken away by starvation.” Female respondent (27), Amhara

Increased child protection risks: There appears to be an increase in child protection risks among households interviewed by comparison to the last bulletin. While these protection risks may have existed in the sampled areas prior to the pandemic, there is evidence to suggest that children’s exposure to these risks has increased due to disruptions caused by the pandemic. Leading drivers of these risks include reduced incomes, increased costs of staple goods and earlier school closures that disrupted children’s education. The two leading protection risks discussed in interviews were child marriage and child labour, though there may be others that were not discussed due to the sensitivity of the topic.

The impact of COVID-19 on child marriage in Ethiopia has also been highlighted in other studies. For example, a Save the Children case study shows that following the closure of schools due to the pandemic, in one district of the Amhara region the Bureau of Women and Children’s Affairs had recently rescued more than 500 girls from child marriage.

“One of my sons was married last year during the Covid-19 period. He is a small boy, and the marriage is early marriage. His wife is also a small girl aged 15. He dropped out from grade 8 and married. He was convinced by other people and decided to marry. That was a mistake because he was not physically mature enough for marriage. He is really a young boy. He made a big mistake for marrying early. I have a plan to re-enrol him in school for next year.” Female respondent (45), Oromia

“Some of my children engage in paid works but they are not strong enough to do hard work because they could not get quality food that can give them strength.” Male respondent (42), Oromia

Mixed experience in returns to education: A contributing factor to child protection risks is children’s absence from school, even though schools have been open since late 2020. Some respondents reported that their children have returned to school since they reopened in their area, but a number said their children have yet to return - and that some are unlikely to return. The leading reported cause of school dropouts was a lack of funds to send children back to school – either due to lost livelihoods or higher living costs. Some reported illness as a reason their children remain out of school. A Young Lives study in Ethiopia found remote learning during the closure was only 10%, a significant disruption of education due to Covid-19 - making it less likely children will return to school when they reopen.

“They [her three daughters] were in school before COVID-19 but they stopped their education during the COVID-19 period. When the schools were reopened last November, they did not return to school because we did not have the money to buy education materials for them.” Female respondent (45), Oromia

“My children are attending the schools but because of the hunger, they could not focus on their education. Most of the children attend their education in the morning shift and they engage in working on horse/donkey cart.” Male respondent (42), Oromia


Coping strategies employed

Prolonged nature of the crisis weakening vulnerable households’ abilities to cope: Several respondents, particularly those with limited livelihood alternatives or assets such as land, have expressed concerns that the duration of the crisis, compounded with other crises such as drought, are straining households’ capacity to cope. Some expressed concerns about famine, either for themselves or those around them. Aside from households classified as resilient, most households appeared to have limited options remaining to support their wellbeing and some have already employed adverse coping strategies such as child marriage, child labour and significantly reduced food intake. 

“People have consumed all they had because of Corona, and since the period has become long, now people have started living without fulfilling what they want even for food. Because of market instability people have finished what they had saved.” Female respondent (27), Amhara

“The prolonged drought season, shortage of food, increasing cost of living, especially an increase in the price of food items, and other consumption items have contributed to decreased wellbeing.” Male respondent (70), Oromia

Absence of support from the government, NGO and informal support networks: Many respondents expressed frustration that there has been little to no external support from the government or NGOs to help households cope with the economic strains of the crisis. This is also found in other studies: a Young Lives phone survey of June/July 2020 shows that only 6% of the studied households have received government support.

Some respondents are participants Government of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Project (PSNP), but few indicated that the transfers were helping them to cope. Some reported that they are health insurance beneficiaries and expressed appreciation for the programme, yet some noted that there were still prohibitive costs to healthcare even with insurance, such as the (inflated) cost of transportation to a health facility or medicine costs.

Other respondents observed that traditional support networks are under strain because households across the area are struggling and those that might have supported poorer relatives or neighbours are no longer able to.

“People could not support each other because most of the people are poor and many of them are buying food items from the market. So, it is difficult to support poor people as the poverty and food shortage is affecting everyone in the community.” Female respondent (45), Oromia

“The government support only the poorest of the people with food subsidies, but now almost all the people do not have food items at home, and they need support from the government. Even the provision of food items for the poor is not consistent or regular, which makes their life more difficult.” Male respondent (40), Oromia


Methodology

CPAN Covid-19 Poverty Monitor bulletins are compiled using a combination of original qualitative data collection from a small number of affected people in each country, interviews with local leaders and community development actors, and secondary data from a range of available published sources. Interviews for this bulletin were conducted between April and May 2021 in Amhara (eight households), Oromia (nine households) and Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNP) (seven households).


Key external sources

To find out more about the impacts of Covid-19 on poverty in Ethiopia, please explore the following sources that were reviewed for this bulletin:


This project was made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.  

 

Philippines Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: August 2021

Thank you for visiting our new Covid-19 Poverty Monitor. To find out more about the project, visit our blog about the project.

Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

Livelihoods remain generally dire, according to most of our respondents. New lockdowns in March 2021 had a big impact, primarily in Metro Manila and adjacent provinces due to a surge of Covid cases that drove hospitals into critical capacity. By April, other regions in Mindanao and the Visayas also had similar localised restrictions, as directed by the national government. These new lockdowns once again restricted travel, which heavily impacted the incomes of both producers and sellers in public markets and resulted in huge financial losses for some respondents and their respective communities.

These findings are consistent with a recent World Bank Study which indicated that as much as 80% of farm households interviewed reported a decrease in farm income since the beginning of the pandemic. Also, based on the enterprise survey conducted by the Asian Development Bank, in collaboration with the Philippine Department of Finance, 39.1% of those surveyed experienced severe bottlenecks due to the lockdown measures; 26.7% reported only minor bottlenecks; and 34.2% did not experience any bottlenecks.

“Our expenditures in producing the crops ran up to PHP40,000 (US$803.47),  but the one-week lockdown prevented us from selling our produce. I had to throw away my atsal [bell peppers] produce because I was not able to sell them during the lockdown. Even in Manila, the demand for fresh produce has gone down. This low demand has reduced the prices of our crops significantly.” Male respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao.

According to our small-scale farming respondents, there is a lower demand for agricultural produce. This has brought down the prices of crops and consequently affected the income of farmers. According to one respondent, the price of bananas has gone down from PHP15.00/kilo to PHP 8.00/kilo ($0.30/kilo to $0.16/kilo). According to their middleman, this is because the export of bananas has declined.

Buying ‘local’ creates new market opportunities: In other cases, livelihood opportunities increased as lockdowns were eased to normalise the economy. A number of respondents have expanded or started their own micro-enterprise to help supplement their household incomes. These enterprises are home-based in the villages which greatly helps those hesitant to venture into a town’s crowded central public market for fear of Covid-19 infection. Another reason points to the uptick in transport fares, which discouraged travel and directed people to buy goods from their neighbourhood vendors, even roving around to sell within the village.

“With my husband’s reduced salary, I had to find ways to augment our income since my allowance also from the city government is inadequate. I started selling rice and stewed vegetables which I am able to grow in our backyard. By selling these humble meals, we are able to earn PHP500 ($10.03) a day, good enough for us to buy our medicines, milk and oatmeal.” Female respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao.

“My livelihood of selling fishball expanded to include egg sandwiches and hamburgers. The number of my customers increased because people prefer to buy from nearby stores than go to the market. They would rather use their money to buy food than to pay for transportation.” Female respondent, Bicol region.

“I can now bring out my tricycle four days/week with the lower level of community quarantine. This has improved our family income. We can now include meat in our meals.” Male respondent, Bicol region.

“My son stopped his tricycle service as income from there was doing badly.  He is now employed in a small enterprise owned by his cousin, and he was also able to get a loan from an informal credit lender to put up this mini store. I never thought it would be this challenging to pay for our debt every month as most people buy on credit. I often have sleepless nights trying to figure out how to come up with our monthly payments.” Female respondent, Bicol region. 

Income decline and expenditure increases still widespread: Most respondents observed that household expenditures have increased while income has decreased during the pandemic, an observation also found in Innovations for Poverty Action’s new study. There is a general perception that utility bills and food expenditures have increased as well as transportation costs, and the amount spent on mobile phones and internet access. Buying clothes, eating out and visiting relatives were on top of reduced discretionary expenses.

The statistics support this view with inflation continuing at 4.5% between March and May 2021. The food index is the largest contributor to inflation, with meat, particularly pork, reaching a record high of 57.7% inflation due to supply chain issues from the lockdowns and the continued outbreak of the African swine flu (ASF) (see table 1). Inflation at 4.5% was way above the government target of 2-4% and this time last year’s inflation rate of 2.1% (May 2020). 

“Fares of tricycle service has gone up from PHP15 ($0.30) to PHP30 ($0.60) because fewer passengers can ride per trip in order to observe health protocol.” Male respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao. 

“All of [the supermarkets] have increased their prices since the pandemic.” Female respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao.

In households living at subsistence level, a decrease in livelihood opportunities resulted in lower frequency and quality of meals served at home. Based on the Pinggang Pinoy (Filipino Plate) concept developed by the Food and Nutrition Research Institute, the recommended daily food intake includes 200g of rice, 200g of vegetables, 103g fruit, and 103g meat. Among the participants in this study with a household size of five, this daily food proportion adds up to a kilo of rice, a kilo of vegetables, half a kilo of fruit and half a kilo of meat that households living on subsistence level cannot afford.

“I am doing laundry services for just one household now. This has affected our daily food intake. Sometimes, we just eat twice a day and we can only afford to have fish two days a week. At other times, when our household budget is really tight, my children eat at relatives’ homes.” Female respondent, Bicol region.

“My wife works under a Job Order (JO) from a local government agency. A JO is a no work, no pay arrangement. When my wife experienced flu symptoms and had to be absent from work, our food budget was affected because of the number of days she did not get paid.” Male respondent, Bicol region.

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Remittances: Two respondents reported that they have their lost income support from remittances provided by members of their family who are working overseas. The reasons for the current lack of job security among those working overseas include: (i) floating work status due to Covid-19 surge in foreign country destinations (e.g., Italy) until the health situation in these countries improves, and (ii) lower job opportunities. The report, Impacts of COVID-19 on Households in the Philippines (based on results of Round 1 of the Philippines COVID-19 Household Survey conducted last August 2020 by The World Bank Group, Philippine Department of Finance, Kagawaran ng., and Australian Aid.), about half of the households that usually receive remittances saw a decline in their receipts in August [2020] and 11% did not receive any remittances.

“My son who works as a seaman was sent home due to the high incidence of Covid-19 cases in Italy. Currently, he has no work. He is helping out on our farm while waiting for a call from the agency.”  Male respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao.  

Unclear rules on claims for government assistance: The selection criteria for government support are unclear and questionable, according to some of the respondents. With the proposed third round of nationwide relief aid packages (Bayanihan 3), many respondents are hoping to be included as they attest that their conditions have continued to worsen with the pandemic. The Bayanihan 3 is the third stimulus package that would provide PHP401 billion ($8.5 billion) worth of relief aid packages and livelihood intervention programmes to help the populace recover from the pandemic.

Shame in claim-making was expressed by some respondents as a reason for failure to take up previous rounds of government assistance. This is mainly due to unclear information and direction. The targeting of beneficiaries and overall implementation of the Covid-related government assistance packages has been a perennial problem marred by capacity and information dissemination issues that were all observed even in the delivery of the first programme (Bayanahin 1) implemented in April 2020.

“I do not know if I can claim government benefits for my 21-year-old son who has special needs. I am ashamed to ask because I do not know who to approach.” Female respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao

Another financial support mechanism mentioned by respondents is the PHP500 ($10.04) monthly pension given by the LGU to its senior constituents (60 years old and above) which is appreciated by the respondents across the participating sites.

Most respondents reported no changes in the frequency of meals per day since the last interview. Protein intake is still limited, often from the cheapest fish available or canned sardines. Some respondents reported buying on credit from neighbourhood stores while others borrowed from neighbours to maintain food intake. Rice remains an important food expense for all respondents. One respondent who now has additional income from cooking for a household still maintains the same lessened food expenditure or meal size since the start of the pandemic as she fears that “the worst has yet to come”. Similar observations were also found in a new study by Innovations for Poverty Action and the report Impacts of COVID-19 on Households in the Philippines (August 2020) found that about 70% of households reporting lower or no income ate less than usual; about 30% of these households experienced hunger, and about 15% have experienced not eating the whole day.

“We continue to buy on credit from our neighbor [store]…” Male respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao. 

Moreover, many respondents reported increased food prices on staple food. Four respondents supplemented their food expenses through kitchen gardening, which usually consists of root crops and vegetables. 

“We budget our food expenses just so we can buy rice… We don’t feel full when we eat a dish with no rice.” Female respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao General Santos. 

“We eat fish. Pork meat is expensive.” Female respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao

Access to health and health-seeking behaviours: Four respondents and/or other family members reportedly experienced flu symptoms in the last two to four months. These symptoms included cough, high temperature, temporary loss of sense of taste and loss of appetite. In most cases, the flu symptoms were treated with traditional homoeopathic remedies (such as herbal infusions of ginger and banaba), hilot (traditional healing massage) and self-medication. The reasons for not seeking medical advice included a fear of getting Covid-19 in clinics and hospitals and lack of money for medical consultations. 

In another case of suspected Covid-19 symptoms, a respondent and her husband decided not to go to the hospital or report their condition for fear that they will be placed in the city’s quarantine facilities. As seniors, they reasoned that their conditions would get worse if placed in an unfamiliar environment. On the whole, many respondents reported avoiding consultations and routine check-ups for fear that their condition would be diagnosed as Covid-19. 

“We suspected it was Covid-19 and so self-quarantined, took paracetamol and prayed. We thank God that we survived it... We didn’t report our condition to the authorities - we will get stressed if they will bring us to the quarantine facilities.” Female respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao. 

A respondent who reported flu symptoms during the first round of interviews was experiencing the same flu symptoms during the second interview. He continued going to work for as long as the flu symptoms were not noticed in the workplace, but he had already been absent from work for three days by the time of the second interview. His wife and two children caught the virus too and were unable to report for work or to accomplish their school worksheets. His eldest daughter, at 16 years old, was the one who went to the market and drugstore to buy their food and medicines. When his daughter was asked about her age by the guard at the entrance to the marketplace, she said she was 19 years old. This is because minors are still not allowed in public and commercial places (key informant, Daraga).

Lockdown prevented some respondents from taking trips to the health centre.

“The health centre was a sikad [tricycle] ride away, but there was no transportation available and my mother cannot walk anymore due to arthritis.” Female respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao.

The case of four respondents shows the interrelatedness of health and income. An elderly couple with health problems have been unable to work and are reliant on financial help from their children, who are likewise hard-up on covering their basic needs, including food. One respondent with a lump in her neck, said the growth of the lump led her to give up her laundry services due to the discomfort and attention her condition drew from others.

“When my wife fell ill with flu symptoms, I was not able to offer tricycle services because I had to care for her. She was ill for around 10 days. This affected our family income.”  Male respondent, Bicol region.

Vaccine uptake: One respondent expressed hesitancy in getting the Covid-19 vaccination. Among married couples, the wife is usually the one who is unwilling to get the vaccination while the husband is willing.

“I was never ill ever since I can remember; the vaccination might even make me ill.” Female respondent.

One older male respondent from the Soccsksargen region, Mindanao was not willing to have the vaccination because of news going around about the vaccine’s side effects. He was also unwilling to take the trip and join the long queue for a vaccination.

Among those who are willing to get the vaccination, their decision is based on the following: (i) information from a health worker on the health benefits of getting vaccinated, (ii) the vaccination will be a requirement for travel, and (iii) the vaccination will be part of work regulations. One respondent also suggested that the local government should hold meetings in the barangay [villages] so that people will be educated on the importance of the Covid-19 vaccines. 

“We are encouraged to get a vaccination once it becomes available so that we can continue to join the queue of tricycle drivers at the terminal.” Male respondent, Bicol region

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Problematic access to secondary education: In all households living at subsistence level, children were never asked to stop their schooling in order to work and supplement the family income. There is a general consensus that education is important as it could provide their children with better opportunities in life.

According to one respondent, the distribution of learning materials every week to elementary students is consistently provided because of the presence of schools in every barangay [village]. Even during periods of lockdown, the school is accessible to teachers and parents for pick-up and return of the weekly modules and activity sheets. However, because secondary schools cater to a bigger community and can be far from teachers’ and students’ homes, the materials cannot be provided during periods of strict lockdown and necessitate shifting to the online mode of learning delivery. However, the need for internet connectivity and for online gadgets disrupts the secondary education of those who do not have access to these requirements. According to the respondent, these requirements are not provided by the education department. Hence, consistency in the delivery of online education from secondary schools is mainly dependent on internet access and the ability to pay for the service; and the ability of households to secure online gadgets such as smartphones, laptops or tablets.

Restrictions in Soccsksargen and Bicol regions where informants were interviewed. See full outline of measures.

Restrictions in Soccsksargen and Bicol regions where informants were interviewed. See full outline of measures.


Coping strategies

Community support: Three respondents expressed that support from relatives has helped them cope with the negative impacts of the pandemic. Access to credit from CARD, a microfinance and lending organisation, is mentioned by many respondents as invaluable institutional support for coping with financial difficulties due to the pandemic.

Some respondents have also developed kitchen gardens mainly for daily household consumption purposes. One respondent shared that she and her household have an informal arrangement with their neighbour’s kitchen garden. She provides them with vegetable stems and seeds and helps them take care of the garden. In turn, the neighbours give them a portion of the harvested vegetables.

“Help from relatives is the only assured form of help in difficult times.” Female respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao

“I am now unable to offer laundry services because the lump in my neck has grown from the size of an egg to the size of a child’s fist and I do not have the money for an ultrasound. So, one of my siblings with a good job as a saleslady provides us with food every day even though she has her own family.” Female respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao

Green spaces: According to one respondent, the clean and green program of their province in the Bicol region diverted their attention away from unfavourable circumstances brought by the pandemic. The cleanliness and beauty in their surroundings brought renewed hope for the future especially in their community for having won the province’s barangay-level beautification program.  

Casual work: The demand for day labour has also been mixed, with some respondents able to find new employment opportunities while some are still not able to find work. But overall, the labour shock experienced by unskilled manual workers is still prevalent, particularly in construction and service sector workers.

“Government gave a warning to our area on cutting trees for charcoal. So, I had to look for work somewhere else or I and my family would starve. I got this job in the city as a helper in a grocery store. I can’t say that our lives have improved since I left our village two months ago. I could have made more in farming, but the rat pestilence will not be over until after a year.” Male respondent Soccsksargen region, Mindanao.

“Since April this year, a family has asked me to cook for them 2-3 times a week. I get paid PHP200 ($4) every time I do this. And just last week (June 21), I was asked by a household to do their laundry every weekend which pays PHP200 ($4) per day. I’m happy for this turn of events, which helps me a lot for our expenses at home.” Female respondent, Bicol region.

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Key external sources

To find out more about the impacts of Covid-19 on poverty in Nepal, please explore the following sources that were reviewed for this bulletin:


This project was made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.  

 

Ethiopia Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: April 2021

Thank you for visiting our new Covid-19 Poverty Monitor. To find out more about the project, visit our blog about the project.

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Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

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Market disruptions: Market closures and transportation restrictions to prevent the spread of Covid-19 were the most widely cited challenge identified by respondents. These disruptions were associated with an increase in the cost of staple goods, lost livelihoods for those selling to these markets, and challenges in accessing agricultural inputs such as fertiliser and seeds.

“[The lockdown] affected us a lot. Our life depends on extensive movement to get our needs met. If the lockdown continued, the economic problem would kill more than the pandemic. it was tough.” Male respondent, Amhara

“The prices for [farm] inputs have increased, and if you must worry, it begins with the cost of improved [seed] varieties and fertiliser. They are increasing at an unprecedented rate.” Male respondent, Oromia

Lost livelihoods: Market closures have resulted in lost income for farmers, small businesses and casual day labourers. Limitations on meeting in groups disrupted labour sharing activities related to harvest and resulted in crop losses. Restrictions on the limit of passengers on public transportation have further limited movement for employment and the cost of transportation has increased significantly in all three regions.

 “Previously farmers work in a team and support each other during harvest seasons. They collected harvest in ‘debo’ [labour-sharing] but now due to the disease they can’t work together so it became difficult to collect the harvest in time. There was untimely rain during harvesting which necessitated mobilising labour to save the harvest before it got ruined by rain. However, due to Covid-19 people couldn’t work together to harvest their produce and save it from the rain.” Key Informant, Oromia

“We were unable to travel to other areas for paid labour. We depend on agriculture.” Male respondent, Amhara

Increased costs of staple goods: All respondents reported increased costs of staple goods, particularly food and transportation. Increases in costs varied, with some goods reported to cost five times more than before the pandemic.

“The main impact was on the price of food items. For example, a quintal of teff (grain) increased from birr 2,500 ($59.85) to 4,000 ($95.75) after Covid-19.”  Male respondent, Amhara

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Additional costs of food staples combined with reduced income are causing households to reduce daily meals and threaten food security. Many households interviewed said they eat one meal per day less than before the pandemic or alternate their diets to limit costlier food products. Some households reported skipping meals for an entire day. Agricultural households in all three regions report donating food to the kebele (neighbourhood) to support households in need, though many of the same households received transfers themselves.

The interaction of climate change and market disruptions has exacerbated food insecurity for several households across the three sampled regions. Recurrent droughts and locusts have led to lower agricultural yields in recent years, leading some households to rely more on food purchases. With increased food prices and lost livelihoods, food security has become an ever more pressing concern.

“The poorest who do not have necessary items and dependent on daily subsistence [have been most affected]. About 600 households did not have enough food for immediate consumption. We organised the community to contribute grain to support the poorest. It was not enough.” Key informant, Amhara 

“My household received support of birr 900 ($21.54) per month for six months to cover our food deficit. I also gave birr 200 ($4.79) and 2kg of maize to the kebele to support people who were affected due to Covid-19 at the woreda (district) level. From this collected support at woreda level, the woreda provided me one-time 30kg of grain to reduce the impact of Covid-19 on my household food security.” Male respondent, Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNP)

“We used what [food] we had in limited amounts. We stopped using salt, oil and other ingredients. We reduced quantity and quality. We had to eat two times instead of three during the Covid-19 period.” Male respondent, Amhara

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Many respondents report disruptions to social relationships and a decline in social cohesion, particularly affecting informal support networks, the ability to attend cultural events and to gather for weddings and funerals. A number of respondents identified these support networks as being critical to their wellbeing, noting material and psychological strains due to disruptions.

“As per our culture, people contribute grain or money to support those in need or those who faced accident/shock. Now everybody is needy, and it is difficult to support each other.” Key informant, Amhara

“During the lockdown, we didn’t visit each other during religious holidays such as Arafa, moulid [Arafa and Mawlid]. We stopped to gather together for marriage, attend funerals and so on. We all were limited to the home. However, now (after the end of the lockdown) things have improved, and we begin to attend different social events.” Male respondent, SNNP

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Schools were closed across Ethiopia on 16 March 2020. School reopening was permitted in October 2020 guided by Directive No.30/2020. However, reopening and implementation of preventative measures in schools have varied based on a school’s readiness to meet the required precautions stated in the directive. Communities sampled are rural with poor facilities. As a result, most of the directives were not observed – some students have only received one facemask, social distancing is not being followed and classrooms as full as they used to be.

One of my children refused to return to school, but I am lobbying him, almost begging him to return to school as he mentions issues related to books and other materials. I have told him that I will solve all his problems if he returns. He does not have an interest in education, he says what benefits would I get. He would have joined 8th grade this year.” Male respondent, Oromia

See full outline of measures: https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/downloads/2020/10oct/OMNIBUS-Guidelines-with-Amendments-as-of-October-22-2020.pdf

Sectors most affected by containment measures

Social protection through the Productive Safety Net Programme [PSNP] was a key source of financial and food support for eligible households before and during the pandemic. However, the level of support was considered inadequate to support households to cope with the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic. Beyond PSNP, no other government support to mitigate the impacts of Covid-19 was identified.

“There is no support given to the community in which I am working in.” Key Informant, Oromia

Neighbourhood support networks were set up in all three regions to facilitate access to staple goods. Households took turns going to the market to purchase food and other basic goods for their neighbourhood and households were asked to donate food and money to the woreda (neighbourhood) for food-insecure households.

“The kebele has facilitated the contribution of food and money from the community members that were collected at the woreda level. Then the woreda redistributed the money and the food back to the most vulnerable groups of the community in each kebeles of the woreda. In one kebele about 200 poor, daily labourers and elders got support for maize and sorghum. The support was given three times. The quota was 15kg per individual in the household.” Key informant, SNNP

Loans and sale of assets: Some households report taking loans from other community members or selling assets to maintain basic consumptions needs. One respondent reported selling an ox and another reported sell grazing land, both significant assets for their households’ livelihoods.

Health insurance was cited by many respondents as an urgent need to address Covid-19 and non-Covid-19 health risks. Those with access to health insurance cited this as a crucial benefit to their household. Despite being eligible, many respondents reported being unable to access health insurance due to the prohibitive cost of the insurance premium. One respondent who did have health insurance reported being unable to pay for his mother’s medication which was not covered, ultimately leading to her death.

“We pay birr 250 ($5.98) per household for the [health insurance] premium. It has benefited us a lot because whenever a household member gets sick, we can use that immediately. We do not worry about the payment. I have benefited from the scheme when I was sick a few months ago. My husband has also benefited from the same service.” Female respondent, Oromia

“They told me the health insurance from my community does not make her eligible for free medication. They asked for birr 20,000 ($478.77) but I could not afford it. I returned home to borrow money from relatives in my community. It took some time, and sadly, my mother died in between.” Male respondent, Amhara


Methodology

CPAN Covid-19 Poverty Monitor bulletins are compiled using a combination of original qualitative data collection from a small number of affected people in each country, interviews with local leaders and community development actors, and secondary data from a range of available published sources. Interviews for this bulletin were conducted between 29 December 2020 and 25 February 2021 in Amhara (eight households, two key informants), Oromia (five households, two key informants) and Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNP) (eight households, two key informants).


Key external sources

To find out more about the impacts of Covid-19 on poverty in Nepal, please explore the following sources that were reviewed for this bulletin:


This project was made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.  

 

Philippines Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: April 2021

Thank you for visiting our new Covid-19 Poverty Monitor. To find out more about the project, visit our blog about the project.

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Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

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Lost income from micro-businesses: Most micro-businesses such as neighbourhood stores and tricycle transport service have seen as much as a 60% drop in income due to a nationwide lockdown from 15 March to 1 June 2020. Purchases from neighbourhood stores have declined significantly, including reduced use of transport services. Only three respondents were able to start a micro-business as a result of the lockdown. As the lockdown was eased, the financial situation of many micro-businesses improved but not to pre-pandemic levels. A study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) from rapid surveys of micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises indicated that 70.6% of shops in the Philippines were closed between March to April 2020 (from a sample of 1,804 enterprises). This number was the highest among other countries surveyed such as Indonesia, Thailand and Lao PDR.

The pandemic brought tricycle services to a halt in March [2020]. Tricycle rides started to normalise in September, but a coding scheme limited tricycle service to alternate days.
— Female respondent, Bicol region
We used to have a store in front of a school. It was doing well until the lockdown when we lost all our customers. We had to close the store, but we are still paying the loan we took to set up this store.
— Female respondent, Bicol region.
I did not have work for three months from March [2020]. When work resumed under the general community quarantine, there was much less work available. I am earning only half of what I used to earn.
— Female respondent, Bicol region

Unemployment: For daily wage earners, the resumption of work under different levels of community quarantine has not brought back the same volume of work or amount of earnings as before the pandemic. Most respondents who lost their jobs as daily-wage earners, such as construction workers and those doing neighbourhood laundry service, have yet to find work a year after lockdown.

During the lockdown, I was no longer asked to wash clothes in their homes.
— Female respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao

Reduced discretionary spending: All but three respondents reported significant changes in their food expenditures and are eating less as a consequence of their loss of income as daily-wage earners or from disruptions with their micro livelihoods. Inflation reached 4.2% in February 2021, the highest since 2019.  Reductions in expenditure on transportation and medicine were also noted. In the Bicol region, the impact of three strong typhoons also directed a portion of food expenditure for home repairs. 

My budget is not the same as it was before the pandemic. In addition to my salary, I had some profit from my business. But now, I have no business and have loans to pay.
— Female respondent, Bicol region

Natural hazards and risks: The impact of regular natural hazards added to the financial challenges faced during the pandemic. Five household heads from the Bicol region said that typhoons Rolly and Ulysses destroyed their houses. In the Mindanao area, several interviewees stated that drought and rat infestations damaged their crops. These households grappled with both the impacts of the Covid-19 virus and the destruction caused by natural disasters on their physical assets and agricultural produce at the same time. 

The strong typhoons November to December 2020 destroyed a part of our house. We had to take another loan for house repairs.
— Female respondent, Bicol region 

Loss of remittances from domestic and foreign sources: Several households reported loss or reduction in remittances from children whose jobs were affected by the pandemic. This finding is supported by an evaluation of the labour market impacts of Covid-19 carried out by the International Labour Organization. Remittances made up around 10% of GDP in the Philippines in 2019, the fourth largest destination for international remittances in the world and are a critical component of many households’ livelihoods. One respondent’s eldest son had to return to his family in the province when he lost his job during the pandemic. In another case, a daughter on vacation in the Philippines from her overseas work was caught in the global lockdown in March 2020 and was unable to go back to work in the Middle East. 

The remittance that we receive from our son who works as a seaman was reduced as an effect of the lockdowns due to the pandemic. We used to be able to go to the market every day to buy rice and fish. We cannot afford to go to the market every day anymore.
— Male respondent, Bicol region
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Access to health services: Many respondents are avoiding public health services due to the misconception that common flu symptoms will be diagnosed as Covid-19 and require quarantine in a facility. Testing is also prohibitively expensive and not covered by the country’s universal health insurance. There is also a stigma associated with contracting the virus. Two households revealed that they did not consult a doctor for possible Covid-19 symptoms and one interviewee continued going to work despite symptoms. 

My wife, two children, and I experienced flu symptoms – fever, cough and colds – including loss of smell and taste one after the other. We were afraid of going to the doctor because people say that even high blood pressure is diagnosed as Covid-19. We just took paracetamol and ate chilli. I even continued going to work. Workers in the workplaces I inspected reported experiencing the same symptoms.
— Male respondent, Bicol region
We are scared of getting Covid-19 because once you get to the doctor, they will diagnose you with it at once.
— Female Respondent, Bicol region

Mental health: Some respondents expressed they are experiencing anxiety because of the pandemic. They described bouts of sleeplessness, irritability in the home, hopelessness and suicidal thoughts. 

Sometimes we ask ourselves, ‘Is this going to be our life from now on?’ But we realise that if we don’t take safety precautions, we might get the virus. If that happens, our friends and our neighbours will stay away from us. That causes anxiety.
— Female respondent, Bicol region
When my husband died, everything changed for us. And to get through those difficult times, I would visit my neighbours and spend time with them chitchatting. But with the lockdown, I couldn’t go anywhere but just inside the house and had no one to talk to. And this with the loss of income was just so overwhelming… I had thought of committing suicide… at a number of instances.
— Female respondent, Bicol region
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Inferior food intake: Many respondents stated that they have reduced their food expenditure. Though most respondents still eat three meals a day, protein intake has been limited, often with the cheapest fish available or from canned sardines. Some respondents reported borrowing money from family members and neighbours to maintain food security. 

Feeding my three children on my own with a reduced income has become a challenge. I buy less rice from the market and harvest vegetables from our backyard garden. I can only afford to buy fish every now and then.
— Female respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao

Increased costs of staple goods: Many respondents in the typhoon-affected areas of the Bicol region faced increased food prices and less availability of farm produce in public markets. There was an attempt by two respondents to plant corn in the uplands in Mindanao but this was ruined by a rat infestation beginning February 2021. Soaring food prices have prompted the government to introduce a price ceiling on meat and to increase food imports.

Our salary didn’t increase, but prices increased.
— Female respondent, Bicol region
This is a new housing project, there are few stores to choose from and the available ones are expensive. We are unable to travel to the city centre, and there is no food delivery.
— Female respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao
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Social interactions: Respondents reported a lack of social interactions due to Covid-19 restrictions prohibiting social gatherings and family reunions, as well as a preoccupation with the search for income-earning activities. 

We used to have a place in the neighbourhood where people can hang out. Now, people go on their own. And most of the time, they are busy looking for ways to earn a living.
— Male respondent, Bicol region
My grandchildren have not seen their parents who are working in Manila for a year now. I have also not seen my children for a year now.
— Female respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao
See full outline of measures: https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/downloads/2020/10oct/OMNIBUS-Guidelines-with-Amendments-as-of-October-22-2020.pdf

See full outline of measures: https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/downloads/2020/10oct/OMNIBUS-Guidelines-with-Amendments-as-of-October-22-2020.pdf


Sectors most affected by containment measures

Casual work: The 2020 Labor Force Survey by the Philippine Statistical Authority reported unemployment to be at 10.4%, the highest rate reported in 15 years. Many respondents searched for day labour but lockdowns restricted their movements, particularly those in the rural areas hoping to get jobs in the cities. A few were able to resume their former casual work such as construction jobs by September 2020.

“It was difficult because I didn’t have construction projects with the pandemic. From March until September I had no construction projects. It was only in October that my good friend, who owns a construction firm, asked me to help with a project.” Male respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao

“After losing work, I now have gone back into the forest to cut small trees to make charcoal and sell these to our village market. That’s how we survive now.” Male respondent, Soccsksargen region, Mindanao

“I started a neighbourhood sundry shop during the pandemic so I can have some income.” Female respondent, Soccksargen region, Mindanao.

Loans and credit: Most respondents have taken out loans from money lenders and relatives, primarily for food expenditure. Some respondents are for the first time buying on credit from their local store. 

“I buy on credit from the neighbourhood store. I use my tricycle as collateral to borrow money from other people. I borrowed money from my brother. Payment for these loans has become part of my monthly expenses.” Male respondent, Bicol region

“Sometimes, we don’t have enough money to buy rice, so we buy on credit from stores or borrow money from our relatives.” Female respondent, Bicol region

Combined coping strategies: Coping strategies in sampled areas typically involve communing with other members of the village but because socialising was restricted, these had to be made in small groups. The majority of the respondents focused on finding casual work, such as laundry or construction jobs. A few respondents were able to raise livestock or venture into backyard gardening for additional income or to supplement food intake. These respondents grew malabar spinach/basella, okra, moringa and sweet potato leaves primarily for consumption as available land was limited.


Programmes in place to mitigate impoverishment due to Covid-19

In response to Covid-19, the national government provided two grants between PHP 5000–8000 through the Social Amelioration Program (SAP) to poor or families in distress all over the country. Respondents who received the SAP were able to mitigate the impacts of income loss, particularly the daily wage earners. The government introduced the Balik Probinsya (Back to the Province) programme in May 2020 to assist those who have lost their jobs in cities, particularly Metro Manila, and be voluntarily repatriated to their home provinces with possible livelihood support. The media reported this caused a lot of controversy and confusion as it was seen as ‘exporting’ the virus to areas with fragile health systems. There has yet to be a report evaluating the programme’s impact.

Local government units (LGUs) distributed food packages consisting of rice, canned goods, milk, coffee and other essential items. Depending on the income of the local government unit, these food packs were distributed on several occasions within the strict lockdown period from March to September 2020. Among respondents, one household from urban Mindanao received as many as five of these packages, while rural counterparts of the same region received two at most. LGUs with fewer financial resources are unable to provide food assistance at more intervals. The Department of Agriculture also provided PHP 5000 cash assistance to 600,000 rice farmers during the strict lockdown and the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ).

Ongoing programmes that continue to support households at risk of impoverishment are:

  • The conditional cash transfer (CCT) programme or 4Ps (Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program), which provides support for the poorest of the poor in both the rural and urban areas. These families also received SAP assistance on top of their monthly CCT allocation. There are ongoing discussions and policy proposals to expand the coverage given the impact of Covid-19.

  • Senior citizens (aged 60 and above) without a government pension are provided financial assistance by their LGU, which on average is PHP 1500 quarterly. Implementation of this scheme may be on a best-efforts basis, depending on the available resources of the LGU.


Key external sources

To find out more about the impacts of Covid-19 on poverty in Nepal, please explore the following sources that were reviewed for this bulletin:


This project was made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.  

 

Zambia Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: April 2021

Thank you for visiting our new Covid-19 Poverty Monitor. To find out more about the project, visit our blog about the project.

Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

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Loss of income from businesses: Zambia went into a partial lockdown when it recorded the first cases of Covid-19 in March 2020. Some micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) such as bars, cinemas, lodges, hotels, saloons and barbershops were completely shut down while other MSMEs were allowed to operate with restricted hours and conditions. Non-essential foreign travel was discouraged. The easing of lockdown measures was phased with bars being the last open on a government-controlled schedule. Some people who were running micro and small enterprises before the partial lockdown said they were unable to resume operations after lockdown measures eased as they had spent all their money during the partial lockdown, costs of doing business have increased and/or reduced volume of customers due to fears of Covid-19. All MSMEs who managed to resume operations report a decline in revenue.  

Those involved in cross border trade report difficulties in conducting business due to additional Covid-19 restrictions at the borders which are exacerbated by the continued depreciation of the local currency (Zambian kwacha) against the US dollar and other major currencies: the kwacha weakened by about 9% between September 2020 and February 2021. The majority of people also report cautious and limited patronage of business places due to fear of contracting Covid-19, which has further reduced the income of MSMEs. Loss of business income is common in both urban and rural areas.

Case study of Elias

Elias is a 50-year-old micro-entrepreneur currently running a barbershop in one of the shanty compounds of Lusaka, the capital. He is disabled (walks with aid). He reports doing relatively well before the Covid-19 outbreak. He was married and sold cigarettes before the partial lockdown while his wife was a tailor. Elias used up all his capital for the cigarette business for subsistence during the lockdown. He resumed his barbing business after the partial lockdown, but business was very slow as people were still scared of contracting Covid-19 and there was a lot of power load shedding. He bought a battery and inverter for power back up, but his battery was later stolen. He reported that his wife divorced him on account of not having enough income to take care of her during the Covid-19 period and he moved into a rented two-roomed house with his son. He barely keeps up with his rentals. His business is still not doing well as people are still scared of Covid-19 so he relies on his close friends for business. His main coping strategy is reducing the number and quality of daily meals.

 Loss of employment: Some people report losing employment during the Covid-19 partial lockdown and very few of them report being rehired by their employers after easing of the partial lockdown. Loss of employment is common in urban areas and often leads to failure to maintain rented accommodation and provide food and educational support for their children.

I know a lot of people who lost jobs during the lockdown and very few of them got rehired after the partial lockdown was lifted. I would say maybe two out of 10 got rehired. Otherwise, we now have so many loafers and beggars. Covid-19 has come with so many difficulties.
— Male urban SE respondent
I have five flats which are rented out. The challenge is that three of the tenants lost employment due to Covid-19 and they have been defaulting because they don’t have other sources of income, they owe ZK17,000.
— Male urban SE respondent 

Poverty pathways key:

  • Chronic Poor (CP): those who have remained poor for at least 5 years.

  • Temporary Escapers (TEs): those starting off as poor five years prior to the study and later escape poverty and fall back into poverty.

  • Sustained Escape (SE): those starting as poor and later have a sustained escape from poverty (including those starting off as non-poor and sustain or increase their status.

Increased cost of basic items: All people report an increase in cost of essential food and non-food related items, including healthcare. This is in line with the Jesuit Centre for Theological Reflection’s (JCTR) reported increase in the cost of the basic needs and nutrition basket from ZK7,158.67 in April 2020 to ZK8,394.01 in January 2021. The increasing price of commodities is largely attributed to the continued depreciation of the local currency against major currencies; US$1 was selling at ZK14.9 before reported cases of Covid-19 in Zambia (29/02/2020) and is now selling at ZK22.6329 (22/03/2021). The annual inflation rate increased from 14% in March 2020 to 22.8% in March 2021 mainly due to price increases of both food and non-food items; prices of goods and services increased by about 22.8% during this period.

Everything has become expensive for example one tomato is costing ZK2, imagine that. Cost of living has become high.
— Male urban SE respondent 
My wellbeing has gone down because cost of living has gone up. My wellbeing has not improved, am still doing the same business (selling charcoal) I have been doing for so many years… I am getting poorer every day because the cost of commodities keeps increasing without a corresponding increase in my income.
— Female urban CP respondent

Loss of remittances: Some chronically poor people (CPs) who survived on remittances from family members before Covid-19 report either a decline or absence of remittances since the pandemic began. They mostly cite loss of income from unemployment or decline in businesses for their supporting family members. The most affected are the elderly with some reporting going days without food. 

Case study of Hellen

Hellen is a 52-year-old widow who survives on handouts. Her household comprises eight family members of one 25-year-old adult dependant and six child dependants (below 18 years old). She was recently evicted from the house of her late husband by her stepchildren. She is sickly and currently living with HIV/AIDS. When we met her, Hellen had not taken her HIV medication for several days due to hunger, she reported that she feels very dizzy when she takes the drugs without food. She reports that she has not eaten for a couple of days. Her sister, who used to send her monthly remittances of ZK500, cannot afford to send any more money because she was let go by her employer who had to downsize due to low production caused by Covid-19 restrictions.

We only eat when someone helps out, otherwise we spend days without food, and we recently ate a few days ago. Our only focus is to fill our stomachs, the type of food doesn’t matter, and we, therefore, eat whatever we come across. Nutrition is a luxury; we are okay as long as we fill our stomachs. I am on antiretroviral treatment (ART) and I can’t even take my medication because it makes me feel so dizzy when I take on an empty stomach.
— Female urban CP respondent
I have been sick throughout maybe it’s old age. I have also experienced some reduction in support from the people that were helping me because they are mostly traders whose businesses have been affected because of Covid-19 restrictions. They are not selling their products because of the restrictions. Money is really difficult to come by these days because my helpers are not making money.
— Female urban CP respondent
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Closure of schools: The government closed down schools in March 2020 during the partial lockdown. Educational programmes were introduced on national television and radio stations as a mitigation measure. While some urban households report utilisation of these programmes, the rural households appear to have been left behind as a lot of households did not have access to televisions or radios. In comparison, some private schools were able to provide remote learning during lockdown, likely reinforcing already high levels of disparity between urban and rural households in the long term.

Reopening of schools: Schools reopened in February 2021, once they had the capacity to implement Covid-19 prevention measures. Social distancing in classes has however led to a reduction in contact hours for schools that have limited infrastructure. Schools with adequate infrastructure have managed to fully operate with usual contact hours.  

They have resumed physical classes, but their contact hours have been reduced in order to allow for social distancing amidst limited infrastructure.
— Male urban SE respondent

School dropouts: A lot of poor households struggled to send their children back to school after the reopening of schools due to loss of income which led to some children dropping out. Both rural and urban learners from poor households were affected. It was further reported that the school dropouts were leading to child labour for both girls and boys; early sex debut, transactional sex, teenage pregnancies and early marriages (especially for rural areas) for girls; and indulgence in drinking, smoking and criminal behaviour (such as robbery) for boys.

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Case study of Hope

Hope is a 17-year-old girl who recently dropped out of school. Her parents divorced and she lives with her grandmother. Her parents are unable to sponsor her school fees and her grandmother failed to take her back to school after the Covid-19 partial lockdown. Hope is trying to raise school fees by selling cooked chicken pieces. She makes a ZK10 profit from each chicken and she manages to sell about three chickens per week. The challenge is that she is failing to save from her sales because most of the income is going towards daily subsistence at home.

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Covid-19 awareness: Almost all people report some basic knowledge about how Covid-19 is transmitted and how transmission can be prevented. While some feel the Covid-19 statistics are exaggerated in order to solicit funds from donors, others feel that there is under-reporting due to limited testing and for the government to project a sense of social accountability for funded interventions. There are mixed feelings regarding the Covid-19 vaccine, with many people indicating hesitancy to be vaccinated.

Health care access: Fear of contracting Covid-19 and associated costs have deterred respondents from accessing health facilities. Others report that they prefer to self-medicate because they usually have to buy medicines due to stockouts at local health facilities. Some with Covid-19 symptoms fear visiting health facilities because they believe that most Covid-19 patients die when they go to the health facilities. This is mainly fuelled by sharing of false information. Some report that some clinical staff also discourage people from going to the health facilities by providing wrong information.

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Increased cost of farm inputs: Farmers in rural areas report favourable rainfall during the current 2020/2021 farming season and are expectant of good harvests. Some farmers however fear reduced yields in relation to other years due to the increased cost of farm inputs which has limited their access to desired quantities of inputs.

Delay in delivery of inputs: The Ministry of Agriculture Fertiliser and Inputs Support Programme (FISP) provides vulnerable but viable farmers with subsidised inputs and fertiliser. Those on FISP however report continued delays in the delivery of inputs which often affects the yields of crops.

Increased cost of food: All households report an increased cost of food which has led to limited access to nutritious food. Poor households consider nutrition as a luxury and only focus on filling their stomachs. Farmers in rural areas are less affected as they produce most of their food (i.e., maize for mealie meal, groundnuts, potatoes, vegetables, livestock for meaty products and milk, and sunflower for cooking). Rural households also benefit from social capital and cohesion. The most affected include urban households, older people, and people with disabilities. 

The government containment measures are guided by Statutory Instruments No 21 and 22 which were issued on 14 March 2020. See https://www.zambiahc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/SI-1.pdf, https://www.sh.gov.zm/?wpfb_dl=216 and https://www.moh.gov.…

The government containment measures are guided by Statutory Instruments No 21 and 22 which were issued on 14 March 2020. See https://www.zambiahc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/SI-1.pdf, https://www.sh.gov.zm/?wpfb_dl=216 and https://www.moh.gov.zm/?wpfb_dl=145.


Coping Strategies

Food rationing and identifying cheaper sources: Several households report reducing the quality, quantity and/or frequency of meals as a coping strategy. Some also reported skipping a day without eating as a coping strategy.

Avoiding wastage of food is very important. I ensure that cooking oil is reused, leftover food is consumed as long as it has not gone bad, and they put off the fire on the leftover charcoal and re-use it… We have managed to continue eating nutritious food because we buy from cheaper sources. You see, the cost of tomato is not the same in Shoprite and these local markets in the compound.
— Male urban respondent

Diversification of livelihoods: Multiple households report diversifying their sources of income in both rural and urban areas. However, this is most observed in sustained and temporary escapers. Some farmers are increasing their farming acreage and adopting farming as a business and many are venturing into gardening as an all-year source of income. Some non-farmers are also considering venturing into farming for food security. Most of those in business have either diversified or are considering diversifying their businesses.

Borrowing and drawing from savings: Many households reported failure to save and those with savings report drawing from their savings for daily subsistence. Increased borrowing was reported especially for payment of school fees. Those in savings groups (village banking) report borrowing for consumption as opposed to investment which was the norm prior to Covid-19. This is common among temporary poverty escapers and the sustained escapers in both urban and rural areas.

Support networks: Many respondents report receiving support to meet daily subsistence needs from family members, neighbours and ‘well-wishers’. Chronically poor households and older people who are unable to work or do not receive adequate social protection transfers report being highly dependent on support from their networks. Most of these respondents noted that their support networks were under strain due to reduced livelihoods, hence reduced remittances from kin networks. One older respondent in rural Chipata noted, for example, that his daughter in Lusaka had reduced income due to Covid-19 and was unable to provide the level of support that she normally provides to him and his wife to cover daily subsistence. As a result, they have reduced their quality and number of meals from three to one/two. Some urban respondents also report reduced support from their social networks.

Adherence to Covid-19 guidelines: Most respondents (especially those with businesses) report adherence to Covid-19 guidelines as a coping strategy to avoid loss of income and associated medical bills once exposed or infected with Covid-19. There is also a tendency by customers to patronise shops/trading areas where they feel safe.


Programmes in place to mitigate impoverishment due to Covid-19

Covid-19 relief fund: The Department of Social Welfare introduced a one-time ZK2,400 (about US$107) Covid-19 relief fund and a phone (SCT funds are channelled through mobile money transfers using phones). for each Social Cash Transfer beneficiary. Some people report that the provision of these funds as a lump has helped some beneficiaries to open micro-enterprises as a long-term mitigating measure against the impacts of Covid-19.

Other government support: The government has continued supporting the most vulnerable households that meet the social cash transfer criteria. All social cash transfer beneficiaries also received a one-time Covid-19 emergency cash transfer. Retirees also report continued receipt of their pension remittances and farmers have continued receiving subsidised inputs and fertiliser.


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Key external sources

To find out more about the impacts of Covid-19 on poverty in Nepal, please explore the following sources that were reviewed for this bulletin:


This project was made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.  

 

Malawi Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: April 2021

Thank you for visiting our new Covid-19 Poverty Monitor. To find out more about the project, visit our blog about the project.

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Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

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Market disruptions: Pandemic-induced market disruptions are widely cited as having the greatest impact. Social distancing and other containment measures have disrupted trade in local markets. Travel restrictions have prevented the entry of traders who normally purchase agricultural outputs, driving down prices, consequently reducing the supply of consumption goods and driving up the cost of staples. Border closures have disrupted cross-border markets for small businesses selling to neighbouring Zambia and Tanzania and the purchase of cheaper staples such as maize from Zambia.

Before I stopped doing business police officers would come to the market chasing people without masks and making sure social distancing was in place. Sometimes things could get so tense that they would end up beating people. All these experiences made me stop doing business. To me, it meant there was no freedom.
— Female respondent, Balaka
When the border was closed, I became financially squeezed and had no choice but to use the capital from my egg business to pay for my child’s education. In Zambia, we also get some cheap stuff like soap and maize flour which we use at home. Everything went down and our well-being has been negatively affected.
— Female respondent, Mchinji
Financial problems are coming because of preventive measures that have been put in place to reduce the spread of Covid-19. The curfew that is being followed has resulted in many businesses being closed down. Social distancing and wearing of masks force both traders and buyers to stay away from markets.
— Male respondent, Balaka
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All respondents observed increased costs of staple goods, particularly foodstuffs and transportation. Many also noted that the costs of masks, while relatively small, were preventing poorer households from accessing markets where they are required.

Since there is a short supply of goods, prices of some goods have increased. We used to buy cooking oil at K800 (US$1.02) per litre but now the price has doubled. Even transport fares have increased.
— Female respondent, Mchinji
Pharmacies are cashing in on the prices of masks and hand sanitisers due to demand, other vendors have also increased the prices of foodstuffs like Irish potatoes, cooking oil, meat and milk especially during this Covid-19 period.
— Key informant, Mchinji
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Reductions in income due to economic disruptions have resulted in reduced expenditure on food among many respondents, leaving some to cut out certain foods considered expensive. Some respondents report cutting out an entire meal, and a few cases say they are only eating once a day.

I farm but normally my business supplements taking care of my family. Even farming requires one to have money to buy farm inputs. Since business is failing, I have resorted to eating substandard food like nsima (a type of cornmeal porridge) with peas and vegetables.
— Male respondent, Balaka
We have lost all our income. When Covid-19 started before I got sick, I was forced to stop my business of selling Irish potatoes because the borders were closed. I slowly started using the remaining capital saved on consumption, like buying relish, sugar and other things and now I have nothing.
— Female respondent, Mchinji
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School closures were widely linked to an increase in school dropout rates, a rise in teenage pregnancies, child marriage, child trafficking and other protection issues. Many parents cited increased caring responsibilities for out-of-school children as impacting their wellbeing and livelihoods, particularly the stress of providing additional meals for children that normally receive school meals. Some expressed concern about being able to pay fees when schools reopen.

A lot of children will drop out of school. Already from the previous closure of schools, a lot of girls here were pregnant and ended up in early marriages. If the schools remain closed for a long time, we expect lots more girls to drop out due to pregnancies and enter into marriages.
— Key informant, Balaka
At first we encouraged them to study but it has been a long time and not any hope. The responsibility of taking care of their needs has also increased. We need to think about what they can eat in the morning since they used to get school meals and now, we cannot manage to give them breakfast. One painful thing is that their behaviour is now changing and their interest in school has deteriorated – some girls in the community have fallen pregnant because they are just idle. So really for us as parents we are struggling financially and cognitively.
— Male respondent, Balaka
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Sectors most affected by containment measures

Agriculture: Over half of the respondents rely on agriculture for a significant portion of their livelihoods. Local market disruptions, the absence of traders from other regions and border closures have significantly depressed prices for agricultural goods. A number of farmers report sitting on goods they have not been able to sell from 2020. 

2020 has been a very difficult year for me. I depend on farming and I could not sell my farm produce because the prices were just too low. This happened because of a lack of external buyers. Many traders were afraid to travel because of the Covid-19 pandemic. At the peak of the pandemic, I lacked market information. As a farmer, I am expected to go to local markets and see myself how commodities are being priced before making any decision.” – Female respondent, Mchinji

Since the borders closed early last year, Zambians did not come to buy produce and many of us do not have money as we still have soya, groundnuts and maize in the house due to a lack of markets. At some point, we started selling at very cheap prices because the buyers were nowhere to be seen.” – Female respondent, Mchinji

Small businesses: All respondents who manage small businesses or engage in informal trade reported business closures or a loss in income due to market disruptions and the absence of customers due to Covid-19. Small businesses, including clothing sellers, street food vendors, two carpenters and a veterinary technician reported a loss in income.

Since the pandemic started spreading in the country my business has gone down. I am a tailor. I used to make clothes and sell them at different local markets. Before Covid-19, I would make K20,000 (US$25.40) on a single market day but now the maximum I can make is K2,000 (US$2.54).” – Male respondent, Mchinji

Casual day labour: Casual day labour is a common livelihood supplement for many households in the sampled areas. It was widely observed that day labour opportunities have reduced due to economic disruptions, increased competition for jobs (as others have turned to day labour to cope with income losses) and fear of contracting the virus from workers.

“I depend on casual labour but ever since Covid-19 hit the country it has become a challenge to be hired. People [who normally employ day labourers] prefer to work on their own to save money. These are hard times.” – Female respondent, Balaka 

“I see a lack of opportunity for piecemeal work as a main challenge as this is the only way some of us get money to buy a plate of maize flour. Now everyone is just saying they do not have money so we cannot get ganyu (day labour) because even these people are not going to work, and some businesses are not doing well. This is what will kill us.” – Female respondent, Balaka

“In the village, we rely on selling farm produce and casual labour to make a living. Now I am struggling with my family because Covid-19 has come with restrictions, making it hard to sell farm produce or engage in casual labour. Some people are afraid of hiring while some do not have money for casual labour as they are also experiencing Covid-19 impacts.” – Male respondent, Mchinji


Programmes in place to mitigate impoverishment due to Covid-19

No respondent identified receiving any Covid-19 relief support and key informants confirmed that there were no government or civil society measures introduced to support people with the social and economic effects of the pandemic. Four respondents reported receiving government cash transfers and one other reported previously receiving cash transfers but no longer being eligible. One district official who confirmed that there was no additional Covid-19 support to their area indicated that they were “building in a Covid-19 face” to the implementation of existing programmes to try to meet increased demand due to Covid-19.

The majority of agricultural households reported being eligible for subsidised fertilisers starting in 2019 (an election year) when the programme was expanded. This was cited as having a positive effect on agricultural yields in 2020. However, due to market disruptions, most were unable to benefit from higher yields due to depressed prices.

In this area, there are no programmes that have started with the aim of alleviating the suffering that people are experiencing due to the Covid-19 pandemic. I only heard rumours that the government will start a financial support package to assist urban residents who are struggling to make ends meet. However, as I said, it was just a rumour. At the moment we do not have any programme that even has a component of Covid-19 support.
— Key informant, Balaka
In 2020 I dedicated much of my time cultivating maize and after a bumper yield, I planned to sell some. Unfortunately, we were hit by Covid-19. I cannot take my maize to the market because I am scared of contracting the virus. There are so many restrictions that have been put in place and they are making the whole process of selling and buying at the market hectic. Right now, I am broke. I can’t buy what is needed at home and yet I have crops that can be sold.
— Male respondent, Mchinji

This project was made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.  

 

Kenya Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: January 2021

Thank you for visiting our new Covid-19 Poverty Monitor. To find out more about the project, visit our blog about the project.

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Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

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Lost income from small businesses: The easing of lockdown restrictions has allowed most small businesses to return to work, but all respondents reliant on small businesses for their income report a decline in business and lack of capital.

Unemployment: Most respondents report a loss in household income due to at least one earner losing their job as a result of Covid-19 restrictions and remaining unemployed.

Reduced discretionary spending: All respondents noted some change in expenditure patterns as a result of livelihoods disruptions caused by Covid-19. The most commonly reported expenditure reductions were on food, mobile phone credit and transportation.

Our income went down since some of my sons who support the household financially lost their employment. Therefore we only spend the little we get from other sources.
— Older male respondent, Vihiga
To ensure the household doesn’t miss a meal a day we have reduced spending on food by buying basic food items like sugar and maize, reduced buying new clothes for some time and only purchase mobile top-up when it is necessary to make a phone call.
— Female respondent, Vihiga
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Access to health services: Multiple respondents reported challenges in accessing public health services for non-Covid-19 related health issues, requiring them to attend private health clinics which incurred significant costs. Fear of contracting the virus or being subjected to quarantine by attending hospitals is still deterring some people from accessing health services.  

Disruptions to health services: The health workers’ strike, which saw more than 36,000 clinicians and nurses walk out over poor working conditions and pay, was reported by many respondents as disrupting access to medical treatment and medicines for non-Covid-19 related health issues.

The prescribed medicines for my back and leg problems were not available at the hospital so I was told to buy them from a chemist, but I didn’t have any money to buy them.
— Older female respondent, Nairobi
Accessing public maternity services during the nurses’ strike became very difficult when my daughter needed it, so I took her to a private hospital which cost a lot of money.
— Female respondent, Vihiga
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Food security is a critical issue for many households, with impacts ranging from not being able to afford costlier foods (e.g. vegetables) to only eating two, sometimes one, meal a day.

Increased costs of staple goods: Respondents in rural and urban areas continue to report increased costs of food and other staple goods. Many respondents say this is their household’s leading challenge.

Direct and indirect impacts on farm yields: Most rural households in Vihiga report lower agricultural yields and need to purchase food beyond their typical requirements due to lost income and disruptions to agricultural input markets, particularly for fertiliser.

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Coping strategies being employed by poor and non-poor households

A street vendor from Nairobi talks about her experiences during the pandemic.

Casual day labour: Multiple respondents report they or others in their households have taken up day labour to supplement their household income in rural and urban areas. In some cases, this work was deemed to be unsafe, with one respondent baking bricks in an unsafe environment.

Sale of small assets: A number of respondents in both rural and urban areas reported selling small assets – e.g. books, utensils, trees and chickens – to meet subsistence costs, such as food and rent. One respondent in Vihiga sold their only cow.

Loans and credit: Some respondents report taking out new loans from money lenders for daily expenditures or being unable to pay loans taken before the pandemic. Several respondents report buying essential goods on credit at local shops.  

Informal support through networks: Informal savings groups or ‘chamas’ have been a source of support for two respondents. Others rely on support from friends and family in the form of food, shelter and financial support.

Combining coping strategies. Most households facing short-term distress report using multiple coping strategies to maintain household needs. One respondent, for example, has reduced their food intake to two meals a day, sold small assets (trees and a chicken), purchased food on credit at the local shop, and picks tea leaves to make money.


Programmes in place to mitigate impoverishment due to Covid-19

 Cash transfers: Government, multilateral, NGO and research-based cash transfer programmes have been introduced in various forms since the beginning of the outbreak. While no respondents reported receiving cash transfers, the following initiatives were identified through a targeted search:

Food distribution: In the first round of interviews (September 2020) respondents reported that food support was being distributed in their communities but expressed concerns it was not effectively allocated to those most in need. In this round (January 2021), no respondent identified receiving any support.

Key external sources

To find out more about the impacts of Covid-19 on poverty in Kenya, please explore the following sources that were reviewed for this bulletin:

This project was made possible with support from HelpAge International.

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Nepal Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: December 2020

Thank you for visiting our new Covid-19 Poverty Monitor. To find out more about the project, read our blog.

Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

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Partial recovery: Most respondents report partial economic recovery since lockdown lifted, but all report continued partial livelihood loss. Some who lost employment due to lockdown in the first bulletin have returned to work. Small business owners report being able to operate again but have seen a reduction in their income. Those producing food for local markets have been able to sell their goods again, though many interviewed report receiving lower prices. Continued challenges in accessing farm inputs is a widely cited challenge in rural areas. Farmers who faced losses earlier in the year report having used savings and taken loans, but there is concern that a lack of access to fertiliser may impact the next harvest, threatening farmers’ recovery in the short term.

Higher costs of staple goods: Many respondents continue to report higher prices for staple goods, particularly food. A VSO survey found food shortage to be the most commonly cited challenge, with many borrowing money and food from friends and relatives or relying on government support.

[Last time] we talked there was no fertiliser. We got it now, but it wasn’t timely, we didn’t get it when it was necessary, and all our crops were spoiled.
— Male respondent, Nuwakot
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Increased violence against women and people with disabilities: An increase in gender-based violence (GBV) has been reported by key informants and supported by other sources. A survey by VSO found that 21% of respondents reported an increase in GBV in their communities. The study also found increases in violence to be highest towards people with disabilities, particularly those with multiple disabilities: 5.6% of total respondents reported facing violence compared to 21.7% of people with a single disability and 41.7% with multiple disabilities.

Child marriage: An increase of child marriage was reported by a key informant in Dailekh and this trend has been identified by other sources. A study in four rural districts identified 11 child marriages over the early lockdown period, deemed to be an increase on the normal three-month period.

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Partial reopening: The government has recently allowed local authorities to decide when to reopen schools. Schools in some regions have resumed partial services, while others remain closed. In Banke, it was reported that some teachers refused to hold classes in areas where schools were to be opened. Children that have not been able to return to school are reported to be facing protection risks, idleness and some are reported to have run away from home.

Our child got lost and we had to find him and bring him home. He went with his friends. Children running away from home and getting lost has been common here, mostly among 12-16-year-olds. I found this when I went to the police station to report about my child.
— Female respondent, Kathmandu

Groups missing out: Children in areas where schools have not reopened, teachers are not holding classes, or where remote learning has not been provided are still missing out on education. Those without access to a mobile phone or television are unable to access remote learning. A recent World Bank survey also found that only half of schools were providing remote learning support to children with disabilities. A survey of girls enrolled in a girls’ education programme found that 49% were at risk of dropping out due to the pandemic. A VSO survey found that 89% of girls reported increased pressure to do housework or agricultural labour in place of schoolwork.


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Coping strategies being employed by poor and non-poor households

Taking loans and drawing on savings: Multiple respondents report taking out loans or drawing on limited savings to pay for daily costs, such as food and rent. Some reported that informal savings groups have not resumed after lockdown restrictions were lifted. The importance of local saving groups as a main support system was highlighted by many respondents.

I am involved in an organisation where we collect money every month and provide loans, but we have stopped doing so due to lockdown. Even after the lockdown is lifted, things are still not fully on track. It is the same environment of unemployment and fear.
— Older male respondent, Kathmandu

Pensions: Older respondents continue to cite pensions and social protection allowances, as their primary livelihood sources and are using this to cope with lost household income from other household members and increasing costs.

Remittances: Nepal has one of the highest rates of remittances in the world, making up 26.9% of GDP in 2019. Several respondents report that they are still receiving remittances from family members working abroad.

Farming: Agricultural households, specifically those with land, report relying on their production to maintain food security. Some respondents without land have identified food security impacts.

“It is hard to manage my necessities and I have reduced my food intake, but we don’t have to sleep empty stomached. We have to buy everything. We don’t have a place of our own, we live in slums.”
— Older female respondent, Nuwakot

Increased migration: The continued economic downturn in Nepal is reportedly leading to increased migration in search of work. This includes internal migration and international migration, particularly to India. At the beginning of the pandemic ACAPS reported between 400,000-750,000 people returned to Nepal from India, “and many more are now choosing to return to India in search on income-generating opportunities due to lack of support at home”.

Due to Covid-19, people who didn’t go to India before are going there now. Many people had business or hotels here, but due to Covid-19, everything was closed so they didn’t have any work and money to pay their rent. They are going to India as they don’t have any other choice. There is no proper daily wage work here, otherwise, they would have worked here.
— Community worker, Dailekh

Programmes in place to mitigate impoverishment due to Covid-19

Relief for farmers: At the beginning of the pandemic the Government of Nepal announced an emergency relief package for farmers, with cash and farm input support based on land entitlement and size. Several respondents expressed concern with the lack of transparency and poor targeting of support, as well as delays in receiving support that led to crop losses; this finding is supported by other studies.

Youth Employment Transformation Initiative: This four-year programme aims to promote domestic employment and enable poor and vulnerable youth to gain access to employment, skills development and capacity building. Funded by the World Bank, it was agreed in late 2019, but will now be front-loaded as part of the Bank’s Covid-19 response.


Oma’s story

A Nepalese farmer talks about how his family is coping with the pandemic.


Key external sources

To find out more about the impacts of Covid-19 on poverty in Nepal, please explore the following sources that were reviewed for this bulletin:

CPAN country bulletins are compiled using a combination of original qualitative data collected from a small number of affected people in each country, interviews with local leaders and community development actors, and secondary data from a range of available published sources. Interviews for this bulletin were conducted in Banke, Nukawot and Kathmandu between November 23rd and December 1st 2020. See our Covid-19 Poverty Monitor methodology note for more details on how we collected this data.

This project was made possible with support from HelpAge International.

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Nepal Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: October 2020

Thank you for visiting our new Covid-19 Poverty Monitor. To find out more about the project, visit our blog about the project launch.

Community feelings have changed – everyone feels insecure about their neighbours. Now the situation is such that you will be suffering more from emotional problems than the disease itself if you are sick.
— Local social leader, Banke
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Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

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Lost livelihoods: Movement restrictions and border closures have impacted livelihoods for migrant workers, informal workers, loans from savings groups, lost wages for day labourers and limited access to markets for farmers. 

Climate variability and markets: Unpredictable rains led to significant crop loss in sampled areas. This, combined with market disruptions has led to significant threats to livelihoods for smallholder farmers. 

Increased prices: Farmers are facing high prices for inputs such as seed and fertiliser. Many households report higher costs of food and other basic goods.

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Access to treatment: Preventative measures in hospitals have deterred some people from attending, for example women giving birth at home. Older people note continued access to medicines.

Quarantine: Returnees from India were reportedly placed in unsafe quarantine conditions in Banke with inadequate food, exposure due to crowded conditions, and protection risks. Dysentery, diarrhoea and a lack of essential medicines were reported in quarantine centres.

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Isolation: Older people report feeling isolated due to perceptions that they are more vulnerable to the disease. 

Stigmatisation: Migrants workers returning from India have been stigmatised based on the perception that they are carrying the disease. Older people are seen as less rule-abiding and therefore more likely to carry the disease. 

Social cohesion: Many respondents report a decline in social cohesion, particularly affecting informal support networks and psychosocial well-being of those in need.

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Distance learning challenges: Radio classes are provided but respondents note challenges in maintaining children’s attention. Online learning is only available for households with internet access. 

Loss of aspiration and hope among youth: Respondents note psychosocial impacts among youth who are unable to attend school or earn livelihoods. Many have drawn links between their isolation and depression. 

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Sectors most affected by containment measures

Migrants and remittances: Labour migration is a key feature of Nepal’s economy. Around 700,000 people migrated internally for work or business in 2017/18 (Nepal Labour Force Survey, 2018). Cross-border migration accounted for 28% of GDP in 2018/19 (ILO, 202o). Many respondents noted livelihood effects from movement restrictions and border closures. In Banke, many relied on migrant work in India and had to make difficult and unsafe journeys back to Nepal.

Agriculture: Unpredictable rains this season have led to significant crop losses. This, alongside market disruptions for inputs and outputs due to border closures and movement restrictions, has led to losses in farmers’ livelihoods. This is also anticipated to have a knock-on effect on food security in the medium-term.

Day labourers: Many of the poorest households that do not own land rely on casual day labour in rural areas. This work has been limited by containment measures and reduced farm incomes have resulted in increased competition for work. 

I had to reduce my costs for managing food. We are having very simple food these days. Previously we used to have rice, lentils, and many different vegetables.

Coping strategies being employed by poor and non-poor households

Day labour: Farmers with failed harvests due to bad rains have been seeking day labour opportunities, including public works opportunities.

Informal trade: Farmers are reportedly bringing goods over the border from India and selling them informally (e.g. potatoes, spices).

Pensions: Older people receiving pensions are using these to support the wider household to cope.

Loans: Many respondents reported taking out formal or informal loans to cope with lost income or increased prices. This coping strategy will need to be monitored in the medium-term as the inability to repay these may lead to impoverishment.

We have become very much used to these things because of other previous crises such as the blockade and earthquake in Nepal. Those crises taught us how to manage things.
— Female respondent from Kathmandu

Programmes in place to mitigate impoverishment due to Covid-19

Social Assistance: Nepal’s largest contributory social protection scheme is pensions for public employees, with 47% of Nepalis 65+ receiving robust social protection (Pension Watch, 2020). New cash transfers and programmes for informal workers have been announced and are being monitored. 

In-kind transfers: Food, soap, masks and hand sanitisers have been distributed to vulnerable households, mainly informal workers and deprived people with no caregivers (International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth, 2020).

Public works: Low-paid public works opportunities (25% of local daily wages) have been introduced for informal workers that have lost their jobs (IMF, 2020).

During the first phase of relief, people in extreme poverty were aided by organizations and rural municipalities, mostly with food items. But the pending budget and lack of attention from rural municipalities might cause them to suffer in the near future.
— Local official

Key external sources

To find out more about the impacts of Covid-19 on poverty in Nepal, please explore the following sources that were reviewed for this bulletin:

See our Covid-19 Poverty Monitor methodology note for more details on how we collected this data.

This project was made possible with support from HelpAge International.

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Kenya Covid-19 Poverty Monitor: October 2020

Thank you for visiting our new Covid-19 Poverty Monitor. To find out more about the project, visit our blog about the project launch.

Covid so far has been the biggest shock I’ve faced. No going out? No solace? No going to church? This has never happened to me in all my lifetime.
— Older female respondent, Nairobi
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Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

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Lost livelihoods: Movement restrictions have resulted in lost income for small businesses and employed people with limited labour rights, such as domestic and transport workers. The closure of local markets has reduced income of small traders.

Increased costs of staple goods: Respondents in rural and urban areas reported increased costs of food and other staple goods. This is supported by secondary evidence (see APRA, 2020). The price of soap is also reported to be high.

Caring responsibilities: Increased caring responsibilities for out-of-school children have restricted time for livelihoods generation.

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Food security: Additional costs of food staples combined with reduced income is leading to households reducing daily meals and threatening food security. The majority of households interviewed indicated eating one meal less per day since the outbreak began.

Access to health services: Fear of contracting the virus or being subjected to quarantine by attending hospitals is reportedly deterring some people from accessing health services for non-Covid related health issues.

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Stigmatisation: Stigma has been reported among those showing unrelated symptoms (e.g. a cough), attended a funeral, or have a relative that died from Covid-19.

Social cohesion: Many respondents report a decline in social cohesion, particularly affecting informal support networks, the ability to attend church services, and simple greetings such as handshaking.

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School closures: Disruptions to children’s education and increased caring responsibilities are the most widely reported impacts of government restrictions. Respondents reported impacts on children’s behaviour, lost interest in returning to school and increased demand for food in the household.

Teachers: Multiple respondents who are teachers or relied on teachers for household income reported losing their jobs or not being paid for work before lockdown.

The cost of food is very high and even getting it is not easy. I eat a meal a day of Ugali/Omena [small fish] and add a banana.
— Older male respondent, Nairobi
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Sectors most affected by containment measures

Markets for food and staple goods: The pandemic and containment measures coincided with the planting season in March. The imposed curfew and travel restrictions affected farmers and vulnerable populations in the food value chain. All respondents reported market disruptions affecting the price of staple goods, with the majority pointing to increased costs of food as a principal strain on household income and negatively impacting food security.

Informal workers and small businesses: The majority of Kenya’s employment, 82.7%, is in the informal sector where labour rights are minimal (World Bank, 2016). Informal workers do not have access to social insurance, and social protection provisions remain largely targeted to households that were assessed as vulnerable before the pandemic (World Bank, 2020). Some reported a total loss of income, and all reported at least partial loss leading to reduced wellbeing. 

Education: The most widely cited impact of government containment measures has been felt by the education sector. Teachers have reported losing their jobs and failing to receive pay for time worked before the pandemic. Added caring responsibilities among parents – mainly women, but also reported by men – have put a strain on livelihoods generation. Children’s disrupted learning is reportedly leading to disinterest among children to return to school, with potential long-term effects on education outcomes.

Transport and travel restrictions: Those working in the transport industry were affected by the curfew, lockdown and social distancing. Cost of public transport increased due to the need to carry fewer passengers to adhere to the social distancing measures. The boda boda and taxi transport network faced a reduction in the number of customers. Long-distance journeys have been affected by border closures and curfew hours.

Governance and security: Court activities were scaled-down, and all appeals, hearings and civil cases were suspended. There is an increase in reports of gender violence cases at household level which is attributed to loss of employment, no income, depression and strict Covid-19 measures and there have been no courts to address these cases.

As a shoemaker, before Covid-19, I could receive as high as 500 shillings a day. But now I hardly take home any money. On a good day, I can get 40 shillings at most.
— Older male respondent, Nairobi

Coping strategies being employed by poor and non-poor households

Migration: Respondents in rural areas had children return from urban areas who had lost their jobs or were struggling to afford daily costs. A respondent in Nairobi sent his family to live in a rural area to minimise household costs. In Nairobi, respondents report moving in with friends or relatives due to being unable to pay rent or to share food costs. 

Informal support through networks: Many households are relying on support from informal network, friends and relatives in the form of food assistance, lodging and loans.

Selling assets: Respondents report selling household items and appliances to smooth out consumption, namely of food. One respondent reported selling her spare wheelchair and another reported selling their children’s textbooks to buy food.


Programmes in place to mitigate impoverishment due to Covid-19

Food distribution: Respondents reported that food support was being distributed in their communities but expressed concerns that this was not being allocated effectively to those most in need.

Pensions: The only social assistance identified by respondents were pensions. Some reported delayed payments, though the Kenyan government allocated additional funding in April to clear arrears in payments (The Star, April 19 2020). 

Social protection:  Kenya’s social protection system targeted older people and orphans with cash transfers prior to the pandemic, with overall protection low at just 10.4% (ILO, 2020). The national treasury has allocated an additional 10 billion shillings to this programme since the pandemic. One respondent reported receiving a Covid-19 reprieve cash transfer worth 1000 shillings per week.

Key external sources

To find out more about the impacts of Covid-19 on poverty in Kenya, please explore the following sources that were reviewed for this bulletin:

This project was made possible with support from HelpAge International.

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