Afghanistan is experiencing contemporaneous crises including drought, floods, COVID-19, insecurity, political and economic crises, and displacement, all of which pose serious risks. This layering of crises heightens the probability of welfare loss, which has worsened since the transition of power, and the subsequent suspension of development aid. Though there has been an emergency response from the international community, the scale of macro-level challenges is considerable, and in turn may also compound vulnerabilities at the micro level for population subgroups, such as people in or near poverty, as well as certain groups like women and girls, persons with disabilities, and displaced populations. Though poverty is not synonymous with vulnerability, it is one of the factors that can heighten vulnerability. This brings up the question that if a large share or majority of the population is vulnerable, what is the value in identifying vulnerable groups? Are there degrees of vulnerability, or intersections of contexts and characteristics that may limit resilience capacities and amplify vulnerability that need to be considered?
This paper identifies vulnerable groups in Afghanistan and examines how they can be supported through humanitarian and wider assistance provided by the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO). It synthesises a range of quantitative and qualitative data sources from 2019 to 2022, spanning multiple household and settlement survey datasets and qualitative in-depth interviews with households and key informants to understand risks and resilience factors that could contribute to vulnerability reduction. This is complemented with a rapid literature review of vulnerability in Afghanistan based on journal articles and grey literature primarily over the last decade to offer a longer-term perspective. The study was commissioned by the FCDO’s South Asia Research Hub to better understand who is most vulnerable in Afghanistan and how can they be supported through humanitarian and wider assistance provided by FCDO, especially since the August 2021 shift in power.
Authors: Vidya Diwakar, Ihsanullah Ghafoori, and Orzala Nemat