Rural poverty rates in Zambia have stood above 75% since 1991, according to national poverty lines. Furthermore, Figure 1 shows that 76.6% of the rural population is living in poverty compared to 23.4% of the urban population, based on the national poverty line of 214 Zambian kwacha (ZMW) per adult equivalent per month. However, these rates hide underlying poverty dynamics in these areas. CPAN research across a range of developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa reveals that there are considerable movements of households into and out of poverty over time. Understanding the drivers of these poverty dynamics is therefore critical in efforts to speed up poverty reduction, as different poverty trajectories require (at least some) different policy responses. A more nuanced understanding of the poverty profile and dynamics in Zambia can thus contribute to more effective policy and programming efforts towards eradicating poverty.

This study examines the factors that support sustained escapes from poverty in rural Zambia, where there are stubbornly high poverty rates, and how to prevent impoverishment and tackle chronic poverty. For this dynamic analysis of poverty, the study uses the Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Survey (RALS) to examine the factors associated with sustained escapes, transitory escapes, impoverishment and chronic poverty. Understanding the factors driving these movements can be used by policy-makers in making progress towards achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 1 by developing new and strengthening existing policies and programmes to eradicate poverty.

Authors: Vidya Diwakar, Mitelo Subakanya, Mary Lubungu, and Antony Chapoto

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