How is Covid-19 impacting people living in, or at risk of, poverty in Malawi? What policies are needed to mitigate the impact of Covid-19 on chronic poverty? CPAN’s Covid-19 Poverty Monitor is an ongoing research project that interviews people about their experiences of the pandemic. This is the third bulletin focused on Malawi; please see the April bulletin and September bulletin, or to find out more about the project, visit our blog about the global project. This bulletin dives into the main economic, health, social and other concerns of those interviewed, as well as policies to minimise the impacts of Covid-19 suggested by the respondents.

Areas of concern for the poorest and potential impoverishment

There were mixed views on how economic activities have changed since the last interview round. Most respondents reported continued declines in income and ongoing market disruptions while some reported improvements that had returned their livelihoods to or near pre-Covid-19 levels and a small number felt there had been significant improvements in their households’ wellbeing since the last interview. Among those that reported continued losses, many of these were farming households that are continuing to receive lower prices for their production.

“Last time I told you that my main challenge was that Covid-19 affected the marketing of our farm produce because buyers from Zambia and Lilongwe who offer very good prices did not come as borders were closed due to Covid-19. Worse still, the government did not live by its word that they would open ADMARC [state marketing board] markets to buy our produce so things have been bad. We are still selling our produce, especially maize, to the vendors at a throwaway price. We have not purchased the farm inputs for this coming season and worse still the prices of fertiliser have also increased, so we don’t know what will happen this year.” Female respondent, Mchinji, 42

A common issue identified among respondents is the continued decline in small business income and the availability of day labour due to reduced spending across communities. While some respondents noted improvements since the last round of interviews, a few identified a return to pre-Covid-19 demand. Some respondents attributed declines in business income to continued challenges in doing business across the Zambian border, but generally, there is a sense that spending has declined in the sampled communities. This is thought to be due to earlier losses from market closures and other containment measures that prevented normal economic activities from taking place, as well as tightened spending in anticipation of another spike in the virus that could restrict economic activities in the future.

“I can say that yes money is still a problem but things are better now. When the Covid-19 cases started to drop, we have seen that things are opening up because even piece works are now at least available and people are opening to start marketing, and income circulation has improved. So, it is better now but of course not back to normal because people are still not sure of what will happen next.” Male respondent, Balaka, 46

“My well-being has completely gone down, things are not well. The number of people who were hiring my bicycles at a fee has reduced. Sometimes three- or four-days pass without someone coming to hire my bicycles. Most people complain that they don’t have money because of Covid-19. Most people just walk when they are running their errands.” Male respondent, Mchinji, 51

“We only rely on piece works to make money but at the moment it is too difficult to find and since it is too dry we cannot even go to the gardens so money is a big problem for me and my family. We may be the whole week without getting any opportunity to do ganyu, and that means trouble to find relish and other necessities like soap.” Male respondent, Balaka, 63

“Things are not improving because, despite the low business progress, the prices of goods have increased due to the increase in production, as have transportation and fuel costs, so that it is why I am saying compared to last time, the problem has grown now.” Male respondent, Balaka, 68

Persistently high prices for basic consumption goods (e.g., food), farm inputs and transportation are a continued concern for most households, putting additional strain on households’ budgets that are constrained by lower incomes. 

“The price of commodities [for consumption] is now worse. The price goes up every day and it is difficult to meet the demand. In the past I used to do casual labour for money, but now casual labour is also scarce, there is nothing I can do.” Female respondent, Balaka, 45

“Nothing has changed, the price of commodities is still expensive, and the sudden price hike of fertiliser is another blow for us. We can eat food without cooking oil, but we cannot farm without fertiliser.” Female respondent, Balaka, 54

“Nothing has changed, actually now the price of commodities is very expensive compared to last time we talked. Last time I said things are expensive but one it is too much.” Male respondent, Mchinji, 43

Four respondents reported significant improvements in their households’ wellbeing since the last round of interviews. Two attributed this to the decline in Covid-19 cases and the reopening of the border with Zambia, one pointed to the favourable prices for soya and the fourth said it was due to cash out upon the closure of the social protection programme they had been benefiting from. One of these respondents started a new business when the border reopened, and the cash transfer recipient restarted their fishing business that had collapsed during Covid-19 market closures.

“Now that Covid-19 is not a big problem we are now doing good business because the borders have now opened and we are free to do business. I took advantage of the opening of the borders and started a new business. I now buy bags of small dry fish from Karonga and sell them in Zambia and this is good business.” Male respondent, Mchinji, 52

“My well-being has improved a lot because I was a beneficiary of the Social Cash Transfer Programme for four years. I was receiving K8,000 ($9.82) [All price conversions as of 26 November 2021 from xe.com] every month and it helped me to support the education of my children and buy basic needs. The programme phased out last month and I was given K74,000 ($90.84) as an exit grant to start a new life. I gave my husband K35,000 ($42.96) to resume his fish business which collapsed at the peak of Covid-19. I will also use the exit grant to roof my grass-thatched house with iron sheets.” Female respondent, Balaka

On the other hand, four respondents referred to the fact that they were living in poverty before the pandemic and that while Covid-19 may have exacerbated their challenges, they felt their situations were established prior to the pandemic. One older respondent didn’t know about Covid-19 until she was interviewed and expressed that while the last year had been difficult, she wasn’t aware of the processes behind this, though they do appear to be connected to Covid-19 disruptions to her normal support network.

As with economic conditions, there were mixed experiences in food security since the last round of interviews, though overall concerns were high for food security going forward for most households. Many of those households expressing concerns about the present or forthcoming food security were agricultural households that do not currently have enough stores to get them to the next harvest season.

Others threatened by food insecurity were those confronted by higher prices to purchase foods at the market and lower incomes due to small business declines or lack of casual labour opportunities. Those who rely on support from their networks to meet their basic needs also expressed that those networks were strained and therefore less able to support their food security.  

 “I did not harvest enough maize because of armyworms. This is a common problem and many people from this community are going to experience hunger because of armyworms.” Female respondent, Balaka, 45

“I do not have food because I did not harvest enough maize. Apart from that my family is too big, it comprises of 10 members. I harvested 10 bags and finished way back such that I buy in small amounts at the market.” Female respondent, Mchinji, 42

 “I think my bicycle business could collapse and my family will suffer more. The business is just too slow and one would feel tempted to sell all bicycles because right now there is no profit. I am also worried about food insecurity. Right now, fertiliser is very expensive, I cannot afford it. I am failing to buy food for the family so I don’t think I can manage to buy fertiliser to cultivate maize.” Male respondent, Mhcinji, 51

All respondents acknowledged that school reopening meant that their children could return to school in theory, but many were facing difficulties in paying school fees. One respondent’s daughter became pregnant during the Covid-19 school closure and has not returned to school. These children have either dropped out temporarily, permanently or continue to face disruptions to their education based on failure to pay. Furthermore, another respondent reported that school reopening was often disrupted by Covid-19 cases leading to further temporary closures and that the management of re-openings has not been well coordinated.

“I have seven children in primary school, and they are frequently sent back because I cannot manage to pay the development fund. Each child is required to pay between K500 ($0.61) and K800 ($0.98) per term, now for seven children it is too much for me.” Female respondent, Balaka, 54

“Children are accessing education but sometimes it is disappointing to see children being sent back from school because there is one case of Covid-19 at school. I wish the government could have done more by making sure that children are learning even if we are living in the era of Covid-19 pandemic.” Male respondent, 42, Balaka

Coping strategies

A small number of agricultural households report diverting some of their land and time towards horticulture plots to support their incomes, though it has been noted that many people are growing the same crops, namely tomatoes, and the local market is therefore saturated. 

“I plant tomatoes and vegetables and sell at a low price because there are many people producing vegetables in this area. Even though we sell at a low price, we invest a lot in producing them because pesticides are very expensive.” Male respondent, Mchinji, 51

Some respondents noted that they were witnessing reverse migration in their communities due to economic downturns in neighbouring areas and across borders which have caused people to return to their families.

“There are many people who were based in Zambia, Zimbabwe and South Africa who are coming back due to economic problems triggered by Covid-19. It is like there are running away from problems but they met the same problems at home.” Female respondent, Mchinji, 43

As in previous interview rounds, there is further evidence of households selling off assets to meet daily subsistence needs. One respondent sold three bicycles that he had previously been renting out as a small business to pay for his daughter's school fees.  

Two households reported being vaccinated, with both male household members interviewed stating that they had insisted on their entire households being vaccinated, an indication that vaccines have started to penetrate these rural areas.

Significant challenges faced in the last year

Respondents were asked to reflect on whether the Covid-19 pandemic was the most significant challenge to their household’s wellbeing over the last year, or whether other factors were more significant. Covid-19 was indeed the most widely cited challenge faced by households with most other challenges cited linked in some direct or indirect way to Covid-19. These related challenges include economic instability due to border closures, lost business, and increased cost of staples due to local market disruptions, and disruptions to children’s education.

Four respondents in the sample argued that their poverty preceded Covid-19 and noted that while Covid-19 may have exacerbated it, they felt their situation was longstanding and that Covid-19 was not the leading cause of their present conditions. One respondent stated that their household’s wellbeing had not been impacted by Covid-19, the reason being that they were a salaried employee who was paid even during business closures. 

“Covid-19 is the biggest setback for my family. Things started going badly when I stopped business due to Covid-19. Had it been that my business was not affected by Covid-19, my situation could have been much better. Covid-19 was a big blow to my family.” Female respondent, Balaka, 43

“Covid-19 is has been a significant challenge to our family. Some of our relatives died and we could not visit friends because of the restrictions. We lived in fear and every day we washed our hands with soap. We couldn’t interact with friends, life came to a standstill.” Female respondent, Mchinji, 56

“Covid-19 remains the biggest blow I have ever encountered since I established my business. The money I was making from my business decreased drastically and at some point, I laid off some of my workers. I recalled them a few months ago when business started picking up.” Male respondent, Balaka, 52

“Before this pandemic my life and the well-being of my household was good. I was doing well with my skills and was making money that I was investing in assets and taking good care of my family. We used to eat well and have a good life. But looking at myself now I feel sorry. It is like I am dreaming and somebody will wake me up from this slumber. Just months after the onset of Covid-19 things changed. No more contracts, no more markets, no more opportunities for piece works, nothing was ticking and we were like in a dark room. So yes, this Covid-19 pandemic has been a big challenge and threat to the well-being of my family”. Male respondent, Balaka, 46

Threats to future wellbeing

Respondents were asked to reflect on the most important issues that could threaten their household’s wellbeing over the next year. The most widely cited concern was food insecurity, particularly with regards to the impacts of climate change, such as drought and pest infestations, followed by continued inflation of agricultural input costs.

The second leading threat to future wellbeing was the prospect of further business declines, either associated with another spike of Covid-19 infections requiring containment measures or the continuation of lower-than-normal business which has yet to rebound since earlier market closures. Four respondents were concerned about their ability to pay their children’s school fees into the future, and four reported being concerned that their households could fall into poverty or deeper into poverty if conditions didn’t improve. Two of these respondents expressed fears that they and their families were confronted with the possibility of death from starvation due to the economic challenges they’ve experienced. One older respondent reported her biggest future threat was the ability of her support networks to continue to support her, and one respondent was concerned about the effects of the vaccine, indicating he felt there could be unknown negative side effects.

“I am afraid of this pandemic. This is attacking us from all fronts. We are afraid of dying from it, but we are also afraid of dying from its impacts like killing our businesses so if this disease can continue then it will be bad for us.” Female respondent, Mchinji, 47

Long term impacts of Covid-19

Respondents were asked whether they thought that the Covid-19 pandemic could have any lasting effects on themselves, their households, or their communities. Many reflected on price inflation and expressed concerns that prices would not return to pre-Covid-19 levels. A similar number of respondents were concerned that business could collapse because of economic disruptions and that Covid-19 could lead to impoverishment across their communities. Other long-term impacts cited included lost education for those children that drop out, long-term disruptions to support networks, and reduced health-seeking behaviours due to strains on the health system.

“The lasting effect of Covid-19 is that economic problems will prolong and push us into deep poverty. We are suffering now but things will get worse because business is not picking up and currently there are no solutions to our problems.” Female respondent, Mchinji, 43

“[Covid-19] brought serious economic challenges at the household and even community level that it will not be easy to get back to our base. Previously, if I went to my neighbour and asked to borrow money, he will do it. But now you cannot find people to lend you money easily in this community because many people took a financial knock during the pandemic.” Female respondent, Mchinji, 47

Policy recommendations to mitigate the effects of Covid-19

At the end of each interview, respondents were asked to offer three suggestions for the government to help support them, their household, or their community to better cope with the lasting effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, building on what they had discussed in the interview so far. Their suggestions included:

• Government support to pay school fees.

• Cash, capital or loans to help small businesses mitigate losses and expand or diversify to become more resilient to future shocks.

• Government support to support food security, especially during lean periods leading up to harvest, either in cash or in-kind including public works programmes.

• Further government support to farmers such as further subsidies to fertiliser and improved seed varieties and better market controls to moderate price fluctuations.

• Cash transfers to support older people who are unable to work.

• Support for housing and infrastructure improvements such as transportation and health centres.

This project was made possible with support from Covid Collective.

Supported by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), the Covid Collective is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The Collective brings together the expertise of, UK and Southern-based research partner organisations and offers a rapid social science research response to inform decision-making on some of the most pressing Covid-19 related development challenges.